20130903-招商证券_香港_-Hong_Kong_Morning_Daily_14页_217kb

报告摘要

Core Content: CSCL's performance in 1H13 shows a net loss of RMB1,258mn, similar to 1H12. The company faces challenges due to continued demand-supply imbalance and high operating costs.
Main Points:
- Spot freight rates have declined despite rate hikes in July and August.
- CSCL has reduced its operating capacity to support domestic freight rates.
- The company's profitability is the weakest among its peers in the sector.
- Fuel oil costs dropped by 17% YoY, mainly due to lower international oil prices and operational improvements.
- Fuel costs account for 64% of vessel and voyage costs and 26% of total operating costs, significantly impacting gross margin.
Key Information:
- Revised 12-month target price to HK$1.82 from HK$2.32.
- Revised target P/B to 0.65x from 0.8x.
- Expected 2013-2015E EPS: RMB-0.06, 0.03, 0.07 respectively.
- Downgrade to "Neutral" due to poor profitability and unsustainability of freight rate increases.

Core Content: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced tariff adjustments to support renewable energy and environmental protection.
Main Points:
- Renewable energy tariff subsidies increased from RMB0.008/kWh to RMB0.015/kWh.
- Denitrifying coal-fired power plants received RMB0.008/kWh to RMB0.01/kWh subsidies.
- Properly deducting power plants with dust emission concentration below 30mg/m³ (key areas below 20mg/m³) received RMB0.002/kWh subsidies.
- These changes will be effective from Sep. 25, 2013.
Key Information:
- The policy aims to promote renewable energy and reduce coal-fired power plant emissions.
- The coal price decline is the main source of funding for these subsidies.
- Thermal power companies' profitability is expected to remain stable due to the policy.
- The thermal power sector is expected to rebound due to the cleared uncertainty of price adjustments.

Core Content: New PV feed-in-tariffs were introduced to manage project distribution and encourage development.
Main Points:
- Three regional zones for utility PV projects were established with different tariffs.
- Zone 1: RMB0.9/kWh (northern China and Inner Mongolia).
- Zone 2: RMB0.95/kWh (western and central regions).
- Zone 3: RMB1.0/kWh (remaining regions).
- Distributed PV projects have a tariff of RMB0.42/kWh.
Key Information:
- The new tariffs are based on solar advantage and construction cost.
- The policy aims to prevent project clustering and promote a healthy PV industry.
- Investors should focus on companies with solar farm or distributive PV pipelines, such as Singyes solar (750.HK), GCL-Poly (3800.HK), and Guodian Technology and Environment (1296.HK).

Core Content: The report includes updates on various sectors and stock recommendations.
Main Points:
- Insurance: Expected to see better performance in 4Q due to industry reform and transformation. Recommended stocks include Ping An Insurance and China Pacific.
- Thermal Power: The sector is expected to rebound due to cleared uncertainty on price adjustments. Recommended stocks include Huaneng Power International, Huadian Power International, and SDIC Power Holdings.
- Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods: Mixed performance with some stocks showing potential for growth.
- Metals & Mining: Some stocks like Jiangxi Copper and Yitai Coal are recommended.
- Auto & Others: Companies like Geely Auto and Brilliance Chi are recommended.
- Oil & Gas: Stocks such as Petro China and Cnooc are recommended.
- Property: Companies like China Overseas and Evergrande are recommended.
- Consumer Discretionary: Mixed performance with some stocks showing potential for growth.
Key Information:
- The report provides detailed performance and target price information for various stocks.
- Some stocks show positive upside potential, while others are downgraded.
- The stock recommendations are based on sector performance, profitability, and future growth potential.

Core Content: Market indices and commodity prices are provided for reference.
Main Points:
- HK Indices: HSI, Finance, Properties, etc., show varying levels of change.
- World Indices: FTSE 100, DAX 30, CAC 40, etc., also show different changes.
- Commodity Prices: Brent Oil, Gold, LME Aluminum, etc., have shown different price movements.
Key Information:
- The data is sourced from Bloomberg.
- The indices and commodities reflect the market's current state and trends.

Core Content: The overall market sentiment is cautiously optimistic.
Main Points:
- The thermal power sector is expected to rebound due to the cleared uncertainty on price adjustments.
- The insurance sector is seen as having more opportunities for reversal in 4Q.
Key Information:
- The impact of the NDRC's policies on the thermal power sector is limited.
- Investors are advised to pay close attention to specific stocks with potential for growth and profitability.