20141124-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_25页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 24 November 2014

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of stock updates and market insights for several countries and companies, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, focusing on financial performance, strategic developments, and investment recommendations.

China: PetroChina (857 HK)

Main Points

Company Update: PetroChina's south-western gas fields, including the Longwangmiao and Changning-Weiyuan shale gas fields, show strong potential due to large reserves and ongoing development.
Strategic Focus: Upstream exploration and production (E&P) remain the strategic focus with stable capital expenditure (capex) and expected natural gas price hikes.
Market Outlook: Despite the potential for growth in natural gas production, the company is maintained on a SELL recommendation due to the negative impact of low oil prices on earnings.
Target Price: HK$7.00, based on a 11x 2015F PE ratio, which is in line with the average PE of international peers.

Key Financials

Net Turnover (Rmbm): 2,258,124 (2013), 2,314,507 (2014F), 2,138,558 (2015F), 2,237,792 (2016F)
EBITDA (Rmbm): 352,007 (2013), 349,620 (2014F), 336,149 (2015F), 352,796 (2016F)
Net Profit (Rmbm): 129,599 (2013), 111,639 (2014F), 87,632 (2015F), 85,392 (2016F)
EPS (fen): 70.8 (2013), 61.0 (2014F), 47.9 (2015F), 46.7 (2016F)
PE (x): 9.7 (2013), 11.3 (2014F), 14.4 (2015F), 14.7 (2016F)
P/B (x): 1.1 (2013), 1.1 (2014F), 1.0 (2015F), 1.0 (2016F)
EV/EBITDA (x): 5.8 (2014F), 6.1 (2015F), 5.8 (2016F)
Net Debt/Equity (%): 39.2 (2014F), 46.7 (2015F), 47.4 (2016F)
Interest Cover (x): 16.9 (2014F), 15.6 (2015F), 13.3 (2016F)
ROE (%): 11.8 (2013), 9.6 (2014F), 7.3 (2015F), 7.0 (2016F)

Key Takeaways

Longwangmiao Gas Field: The largest in China, with low lifting costs and good returns.
Changning-Weiyuan Shale Gas: Expected to contribute significantly to natural gas output, though initial costs are high.
Earnings Outlook: Despite growth in natural gas production, earnings are expected to decline due to low oil prices.
Valuation: The stock is currently undervalued relative to international peers, but the SELL recommendation remains due to oil price assumptions.

Indonesia: Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI IJ)

Main Points

Company Update: The company is maintaining a BUY recommendation with a target price of Rp650, based on a 55% discount to RNAV/share.
Marketing Sales: Achieved 79% of 2014 target in the first 10 months, with a 2015 target of Rp5.8t (+16% yoy).
Strategic Projects: Development of the GWK Cultural Park and condotel project, as well as the Jakarta CBD office tower, are key growth drivers.

Key Financials

Net Turnover (Rpb): 3,684 (2013), 4,111 (2014F), 4,736 (2015F), 5,167 (2016F)
EBITDA (Rpb): 1,551 (2013), 1,725 (2014F), 1,990 (2015F), 2,166 (2016F)
Net Profit (Rpb): 877 (2013), 1,226 (2014F), 1,486 (2015F), 1,562 (2016F)
EPS (Rp): 49.1 (2013), 68.6 (2014F), 83.2 (2015F), 87.5 (2016F)
PE (x): 10.3 (2013), 7.4 (2014F), 6.1 (2015F), 5.8 (2016F)
P/B (x): 1.7 (2013), 1.4 (2014F), 1.2 (2015F), 1.0 (2016F)
EV/EBITDA (x): 8.3 (2013), 7.5 (2014F), 6.7 (2015F), 6.1 (2016F)
Net Debt/Equity (%): 71.7 (2014F), 57.2 (2015F), 51.1 (2016F)
Interest Cover (x): 17,538.9 (2013), 5.6 (2014F), 8.0 (2015F), 8.6 (2016F)
ROE (%): 18.0 (2013), 21.3 (2014F), 21.0 (2015F), 19.9 (2016F)

Key Takeaways

Investor Concerns: Higher interest rates and policy changes from the new government are major concerns.
Marketing Sales: Strong performance in 2014, with a good chance of hitting the 2015 target.
Recurring Income: Expected to double over the next three years, driven by rental income and commercial developments.
Valuation: The stock is undervalued at 6.1x 2015F PE and 1.2x 2015F P/B, well below 5-year averages.

Malaysia: Key Companies

Genting (GENT MK)

Recommendation: BUY with a target of RM11.39
Performance: 3Q14 results were affected by poor VIP hold rates.
Market Outlook: Expected to see improved performance if VIP hold rates improve.

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK)

Recommendation: HOLD with a target of RM4.47
Performance: Results would have been in line if not for poor VIP hold rates.
Market Outlook: The Upstate New York decision is expected in the coming weeks, and current valuations are considered attractive.

SKP Resources (SKP MK)

Recommendation: BUY with a target of RM0.83
Performance: 2QFY15 results were within expectations.
Market Outlook: Expect higher growth from Dyson's new products in 2HFY15.

Singapore: Property & REITs

Sector Review: 3Q14 results for the property sector were reviewed.
Focus: On the performance of property and REITs, with an emphasis on earnings and market trends.

Thailand: Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BGH TB)

Recommendation: BUY with a target of Bt22.00
Performance: On course for impressive earnings growth in 2015.
Market Outlook: Expected to perform well due to its growth potential.

Key Indices (24 Nov 2014)

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	17810.1	0.5	1.0	6.0	7.4
S&P 500	2063.5	0.5	1.2	5.0	11.6
FTSE 100	6750.8	1.1	1.4	5.7	0.0
AS30	5292.1	(0.2)	(2.6)	(2.0)	(1.1)
CSI 300	2583.5	1.8	0.1	8.1	10.9
FSSTI	3345.3	0.9	0.9	3.8	5.6
HSCEI	10447.2	0.7	(2.9)	0.5	(3.4)
HSI	23437.1	0.4	(2.7)	0.6	0.6
JCI	5112.0	0.4	1.2	0.8	19.6
KLCI	1809.1	(0.7)	(0.3)	(0.5)	(3.1)
KOSPI	1964.8	0.3	1.0	2.0	(2.3)
Nikkei 225	17357.5	0.3	(0.8)	13.5	6.5
SET	1579.2	0.7	0.2	2.6	21.6
TWSE	9091.5	0.1	1.2	5.2	5.6
BDI	1324	(0.6)	5.4	11.1	(41.9)
CPO (RM/mt)	2189	(2.0)	(1.0)	2.7	(14.9)
Nymex Crude (US$/bbl)	77	0.9	0.9	(7.6)	(22.3)

Top Picks

BUY

Sunac China (1918 HK): Target price HK$9.29, potential upside 50.3%
ICBC (1398 HK): Target price HK$6.15, potential upside 24.0%
Bank Mandiri (BMRI LJ): Target price Rp12,500, potential upside 20.5%
Gamuda (GAM MK): Target price RM5.50, potential upside 7.2%
DBS (DBS SP): Target price S$22.68, potential upside 14.1%
Pacific Radiance (PACRA SP): Target price S$1.57, potential upside 61.9%
Bangkok Bank (BBL TB): Target price Bt276.00, potential upside 37.3%
Advanced Info (ADVANC): Target price Rp270.00, potential upside 13.9%

SELL

UMWH Holdings (UMWH MK): Target price HK$10.00, potential downside 11.2%

Key Assumptions

Country	GDP (% yoy) 2013	GDP (% yoy) 2014	GDP (% yoy) 2015F
US	1.9	2.7	3.2
Euro Zone	-0.4	0.9	1.4
Japan	1.5	1.5	2.0
Singapore	3.9	3.5	3.9
Malaysia	4.7	5.9	5.2
Thailand	2.9	1.5	3.9
Indonesia	5.8	5.2	5.8
Hong Kong	2.9	3.5	3.7
China	7.7	7.2	7.0

Commodity	2013 (US$/bbl)	2014 (US$/bbl)	2015F (US$/bbl)
Brent	110	100	85
CPO	736	725	765
BDI	1,219	1,200	1,300

Corporate Events

GC 1H15 Market Strategy, CH Infrastructure Sector: London (21-25 Nov), Dublin (26 Nov)
Regional 1H15 Strategy Forum: Kuala Lumpur (3 Dec)

Summary of Key Insights

PetroChina is recommended as a SELL due to low oil prices, despite positive developments in gas production.
Alam Sutera Realty is recommended as a BUY, with strong marketing sales performance and undervalued stock.
Genting and SKP Resources show growth potential, though Genting Malaysia is currently HOLD due to poor VIP hold rates.
Bangkok Dusit Medical Services is on track for strong earnings growth in 2015.
Key Indices show mixed performance, with some indices like the DJIA and S&P 500 showing positive growth, while others like the HSCEI and HSI are down.
Top Picks include several companies with strong upside potential, especially in the property and energy sectors.
Corporate Events highlight upcoming market strategy sessions and investment forums.

Conclusion

The summary provides a detailed analysis of key companies in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, with a focus on financial performance, strategic developments, and investment recommendations. While some companies show strong growth potential, others are recommended as SELL due to macroeconomic factors such as low oil prices and rising interest rates. The document emphasizes the importance of valuations, earnings outlook, and strategic initiatives in shaping investment decisions.

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