20150410-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_25页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive update on the regional market, focusing on key sectors such as Plantation, Automobile, and others in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. It includes market insights, investment recommendations, key indices, corporate events, and economic outlooks for various countries.

Main Points

Plantation Sector

Investor Sentiment: Investors are showing interest in the plantation sector, which has underperformed for two years, but are still cautious due to the ongoing commodity downtrend.
Catalysts for Growth: The market is waiting for signals such as soybean planting in the US, weather developments, and demand outlook.
Investment Recommendations: Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks include First Resources (FR SP) and Sime Darby (SIME MK), with a focus on companies with a good age profile, location, and corporate governance.
Concerns: Low crude oil prices are affecting biodiesel demand, and the implementation of biodiesel mandates in Indonesia is uncertain due to policy changes and market conditions.

China Market

Economic Outlook: The PBOC is working to achieve a soft landing for the economy through a balanced approach of monetary and fiscal policies.
Monetary Policy: The PBOC is expected to use a combination of conventional and unconventional tools, including open market operations, MLF, and PSL, to manage liquidity and support the economy.
Fiscal Policy: The government is focusing on boosting domestic demand through infrastructure investments, while also pushing for long-term reforms.
Challenges: High financing costs, local government revenue decline, and the anti-corruption movement are hindering fiscal expansion and reform progress.
GDP Forecast: Maintain GDP growth forecast of 7% yoy for 2015.

Indonesia

Biodiesel Policy: The government has introduced several measures to support the palm oil industry, including increased subsidies and higher biodiesel mandates.
Subsidy Changes: The subsidy for biodiesel was increased to Rp4,000/litre from Rp1,500/litre, and the biodiesel price formula was revised.
Export Levy: A proposed export levy of US$50/tonne on CPO exports is expected to be implemented.
Corporate Governance: The document highlights the importance of young and high-yield companies, emphasizing their potential for growth.

Malaysia

Deleum (DLUM MK): Still a good stock to own, with a target price of RM1.90.
Market Weight: Maintain MARKET WEIGHT for the sector.

Singapore

Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP): Maintain BUY recommendation with a target price of S$0.48.
Turnaround Expected: The company is expected to see a turnaround in China operations in 2015 and stable refining margins.

Thailand

Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF TB): Maintain BUY recommendation with a target price of Bt27.50.
Earnings Outlook: 1Q15 earnings may drop 51% yoy, but improve 25% qoq.

Key Indices

The DJIA, S&P 500, FTSE 100, AS30, CSI 300, FSSTI, HSCEI, HSI, JCI, KLCI, KOSPI, and Nikkei 225 are listed with their previous close and percentage changes over different time frames.
BDI and CPO prices are also provided, showing mixed performance across regions.

Key Investment Recommendations

Top Picks

First Resources (FR SP): BUY, with a target price of S$2.80.
Bumitama Agri (BAL SP): BUY, with a target price of S$1.45.
Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP): BUY, with a target price of S$0.48.
Sime Darby (SIME MK): BUY, with a target price of RM9.35.
Sampoerna Agro (SGRO IJ): BUY, with a target price of Rp2,540.

Sell Recommendations

Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK MK): SELL, with a target price of RM20.00.
JUM Plantations (IJMP MK): SELL, with a target price of Rp2,900.

Corporate Events

Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings – Roadshow in Hong Kong (16–17 Apr).
Amata Corporation – Roadshow in Singapore (10 Apr).
ENN Energy – Roadshow in Toronto (13–14 Apr).
PT Logindo Luncheon – Singapore (17 Apr).
CapitaCommercial Trust Luncheon – Singapore (22 Apr).

Sector Catalysts

Palm Oil Shortage: Due to dry weather in Malaysia and Kalimantan.
Restocking in China: CPO inventories have dropped significantly.
Biodiesel Blending: Accelerated in Indonesia and Malaysia, which could impact global supply.
CPO Price Stability: The CPO price is expected to stay range-bound without strong catalysts.

Risk Factors

Backtracking of Biodiesel Mandates: Due to low crude oil prices.
Bumper Soybean Crops: From the US, which could affect demand for palm oil.
Monetary Policy and Reforms Mismatch: Long-term risks due to uncertainty in economic prospects and delayed reforms.

Key Assumptions

CPO Prices: Maintained at RM2,525/tonne for 2015 and RM2,600/tonne for 2016.
GDP Growth: Maintained at 7% yoy for 2015.
Real Interest Rate: A key indicator for monetary easing.
Local Government Debt: Expected to be swapped with bonds, supported by PBOC.

Summary of Recommendations

Country	Sector	Recommendation	Target Price
China	Plantation	BUY	S$0.48
Indonesia	Plantation	BUY	Rp2,540
Malaysia	Plantation	MARKET WEIGHT	-
Singapore	Plantation	BUY	S$2.80
China	Automobile	MARKET WEIGHT	-
Malaysia	Plantation	MARKET WEIGHT	-
Singapore	Plantation	MARKET WEIGHT	-
Indonesia	Plantation	MARKET WEIGHT	-

Analyst Contact

Regional Research Team
Email: research@uobkayhian.com
Phone: +65 6535 6868

Conclusion

The document outlines a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the plantation sector, with a focus on long-term growth and the potential for recovery. It highlights the importance of monitoring key indicators such as CPO prices, monetary policy, and corporate governance. In China, the emphasis is on achieving a soft landing through a mix of monetary and fiscal measures, while the automobile sector shows resilience with SUVs leading growth. Risks include policy uncertainty and the potential for increased soybean supply.

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