20150129-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_25页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary
Core Content
This document provides a summary of market insights and investment recommendations for various regions and sectors, focusing on Singapore, China, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as of Thursday, 29 January 2015.
Key Stories
Singapore: Implications of a Weaker SGD
- The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) reduced the slope of the policy band, leading to a weaker Singapore Dollar (SGD).
- Stocks positively impacted include: Venture, SingTel, SIA, Ezion, Pacific Radiance, and ST Engineering.
China: Solar Power Sector
- Local governments and banks have increased support for solar power installations, leading to an expected installation boom.
- NEA guidance for 2015 solar installations includes:
- 15GW total capacity additions.
- 8GW from utility-scale solar farms.
- 7GW from distributed generation (DG).
- Key regions include:
- Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, etc. with various subsidies and policies.
- Major banks (e.g., China Merchants Bank, ICBC) have issued credit policies for the solar sector, making it a "preferred" sector.
- Singyes Solar is recommended with a BUY rating, targeting HK$16.80 based on 11.6x 2015F PE.
Indonesia: Property Sector
- The property sector is expected to benefit from a better economic outlook and lower inflationary pressures, despite rising regulatory risks.
- RNAV (Replacement NAV) has improved by an average of 23%.
- Top picks: BSDE (Bumi Serpong Damai) and CTRS (Ciputra Surya) with BUY ratings.
- Marketing sales growth is projected at 18% yoy, better than 2014's 2%.
- Mortgage rates are expected to increase only slightly due to declining oil prices and internal financing programs by developers.
Malaysia: Company Results
- Sunway REIT (SREIT) reported RM114m revenue in 1QFY15 and RM66.5m net distributable income, contributing to RM133.3m distributable income for 1HFY15.
- Maintain BUY with a target price of RM1.58.
Main Points
- Singapore is experiencing a weaker SGD due to MAS policy changes, positively affecting certain stocks.
- China is seeing a solar power installation boom due to supportive government policies and clearer credit policies.
- Indonesia has a better economic outlook for 2015, with property demand likely to improve despite regulatory risks.
- Malaysia has positive results from Sunway REIT, with rental revisions contributing to its performance.
Key Information
Top Picks
- China: Singyes Solar (750 HK) - BUY, Target: HK$16.80
- Indonesia: BSDE (Bumi Serpong Damai) - BUY, Target: Rp2,500
- Indonesia: CTRS (Ciputra Surya) - BUY, Target: Rp3,800
- Malaysia: Sunway REIT (SREIT) - BUY, Target: RM1.58
Key Indices
| Index | Prev Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 17191.4 | (1.1) | (2.1) | (4.8) | (3.5) |
| S&P 500 | 2002.2 | (1.3) | (1.5) | (4.1) | (2.8) |
| FTSE 100 | 6825.9 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 4.0 |
| AS30 | 5516.6 | 0.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| CSI 300 | 3525.3 | (1.4) | (0.7) | 2.0 | (0.2) |
| FSSTI | 3419.2 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| HSCEI | 11963.6 | (0.6) | (0.5) | (0.5) | (0.2) |
| HSI | 24861.8 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 5.3 |
| JCI | 5268.9 | (0.4) | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| KLCI | 1795.9 | (0.4) | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| KOSPI | 1961.6 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.4 |
| TWSE | 9510.9 | (0.1) | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| BDI | 666 | (3.2) | (13.5) | (14.8) | (14.8) |
| CPO | 2168 | (1.7) | (7.0) | (2.7) | (5.6) |
| Nymex Crude | 44 | (3.9) | (7.0) | (18.8) | (16.6) |
Key Assumptions
| Metric | 2013 | 2014 | 2015F |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (% yoy) | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| Euro Zone | -0.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Japan | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Singapore | 3.9 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| Malaysia | 4.7 | 5.9 | 5.2 |
| Thailand | 2.9 | 1.5 | 3.9 |
| Indonesia | 5.8 | 5.2 | 5.8 |
| Hong Kong | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.7 |
| China | 7.7 | 7.2 | 7.0 |
| Brent (US$/bbl) | 99.45 | 65 | 70 |
| CPO (US$/mt) | 722 | 765 | 788 |
| BDI | 1,101 | 1,300 | 1,400 |
Corporate Events
- Malaysia 1H15 Strategy Analyst Presentation: 29-30 Jan
- China 1H15 Market Strategy Analyst Presentation: 29-30 Jan
- Singapore and Indonesia Telecommunications Sectors Analyst Presentation: 4 Feb
- Oil & Gas Sector Analyst Presentation: 5-6 Feb
Risks
- Slower-than-expected installation process in the solar power sector.
Analysts
- Kevin Zhao Yong Tao: +862154047225×805, kevinzhao@uobkayhian.com
- James Yuan Bei Lun: +8621 5404 7225 x 820, jamesyuan@uobkayhian.com
- Marwan Halim: +6221 2993 3805, marwanhalim @uobkayhian.com
Additional Notes
- PEER COMPARISON and MARKETING SALES tables are included to provide detailed financial insights and performance metrics.
- Sectors like solar power and property are highlighted with OVERWEIGHT ratings due to positive outlooks and improved fundamentals.
- The document emphasizes the importance of government policies, credit availability, and market dynamics in influencing sector performance.
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