2013年-ECB欧洲央行_Results_of_the_ECB_survey_of_professional_forecasters_for_the_third_quarter_of_2013_5页_273kb

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - Third Quarter of 2013

Core Content Summary

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2013 provides updated macroeconomic expectations for the euro area. The survey collected 51 responses between 16 and 19 July 2013, and the results indicate a general downward trend in short-term inflation and real GDP growth expectations, while longer-term inflation and unemployment expectations remain relatively stable.

Inflation Expectations

• Short-term inflation expectations:

  • 2013: 1.5% (down 0.2 percentage points from the previous survey).
  • 2014: 1.5% (down 0.1 percentage points from the previous survey).
  • 2015: 1.8% (unchanged from the previous survey).
  • Long-term (2018): 2.0% (unchanged from the previous survey, though the reference period differs slightly between surveys).

• Reasons for downward revisions:

  • Weaker economic activity and labor markets.
  • Lower commodity prices.
  • Smaller contributions to inflation from indirect taxes and administered prices due to delayed fiscal consolidation.

• Risk assessment:

  • Risks to the baseline inflation outlook are broadly balanced or slightly tilted to the downside.
  • Upward risks include increases in commodity prices, indirect taxes, and administered prices.
  • Downside risks include further deterioration in economic activity and labor markets.

Real GDP Growth Expectations

• Revised downwards for all horizons:

  • 2013: -0.6% (down 0.2 percentage points from the previous survey).
  • 2014: 0.9% (down 0.1 percentage point).
  • 2015: 1.5% (down 0.1 percentage point).
  • Long-term (2018): 1.7% (slightly narrower distribution compared to the previous survey).

• Main factors for revisions:

  • Weaker-than-expected domestic demand in the first quarter of 2013.
  • Disappointing data from key emerging economies like China and Brazil, leading to lower net trade contributions.
  • Lower domestic demand continuing to influence expectations for 2014 and 2015.

• Risk assessment:

  • Downside risks include lower foreign demand and reduced market confidence.
  • Upside risks include increased world trade from developed economies, higher economic sentiment, and earlier-than-expected structural reforms.

Unemployment Rate Expectations

• Unchanged for 2013: 12.3%.

• Upward revisions for 2014 and 2015:

  • 2014: 12.4% (up 0.2 percentage points).
  • 2015: 11.8% (up 0.2 percentage points).

• Long-term (2018): 9.7% (up 0.1 percentage point from the previous survey).

• Reasons for upward revisions:

  • Weaker economic activity forecasts for 2014.
  • Postponement of hiring decisions due to low economic confidence.
  • Slow pay-off of structural labor market reforms in crisis countries.

• Risk assessment:

  • Risks to unemployment expectations are largely on the upside, closely linked to downside risks in economic growth.
  • Downside risks are primarily associated with the potential success of structural reforms in crisis countries.

Other Variables and Assumptions

• ECB's main refinancing rate:

  • Expected to be at 0.4% until the second quarter of 2014.
  • Then rising to an average of 0.8% in 2015.

• EUR/USD exchange rate:

  • Revised downwards to around 1.29 over the forecast horizon.

• Oil prices:

  • Expected to decline by around 1.5% across all horizons.
  • Stand at USD 104.3 per barrel in Q3 2013, rising to USD 109.1 in 2015.

• Compensation per employee growth:

  • Expected to be 1.7% in 2013 and 2014, then rising to 2.0% in 2015.
  • A small downward revision compared to the previous survey.

Key Information

• Survey period: 16–19 July 2013.
• Responses received: 51.
• Inflation expectations:
  • Short-term (2013–2015): Lower than previous survey.
  • Long-term: Unchanged at 2.0%.
• GDP growth expectations:
  • Revised downwards for all horizons.
  • Long-term (2018): 1.7%.
• Unemployment expectations:
  • Unchanged for 2013.
  • Increased for 2014 and 2015.
  • Long-term (2018): 9.7%.
• Uncertainty:
  • Longer-term inflation uncertainty slightly decreased.
  • Still remains at a high level.
• Alignment with other forecasts:
  • SPF inflation expectations align with Consensus Economics for 2013–2015.
  • SPF GDP forecasts are in line with Euro Zone Barometer and Consensus Economics.
  • SPF unemployment forecasts for 2013 and 2014 match those of the Euro Zone Barometer, but for 2015 are slightly lower.

Main Views

• Economic outlook:

  • Overall pessimistic, with downward revisions in inflation and GDP growth expectations.
  • Unemployment expectations show a slight upward trend, indicating ongoing labor market challenges.

• Drivers of expectations:

  • Weak domestic demand, delayed fiscal consolidation, and lower commodity prices are key factors in inflation and GDP revisions.
  • Structural reforms and economic sentiment are seen as potential upside risks.

• Long-term stability:

  • Longer-term inflation and unemployment expectations remain stable, with inflation expectations slightly aligned with the Euro Zone Barometer.

• Uncertainty:

  • Despite some downward revisions, uncertainty remains high, especially for longer-term inflation expectations.