2010年-ECB欧洲央行_Results_of_the_ECB_Survey_of_Professional_Forecasters_for_the_third_quarter_of_2010_5页_343kb

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - Third Quarter of 2010

Core Content

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2010 provides insights into inflation, real GDP growth, and unemployment expectations among professional forecasters. The survey was conducted between 14 and 19 July 2010, with 55 responses from experts affiliated with financial or non-financial institutions in the EU.

Inflation Expectations

• 2010: Inflation expectations remained at 1.4%.
• 2011: Inflation expectations remained at 1.5%.
• 2012: Inflation expectations remained at 1.7%.
• Longer-term (2015): Average inflation expectations were slightly revised upwards to 2.0% from 1.9% in the previous SPF round. The median remained at 1.9%.
• Probability Distribution: The probability distribution for 2010 and 2011 is more concentrated around the 1.0%–1.9% range, with 81% probability for 2010 and a slight increase in the probability for 2011.
• Risk Assessment: The balance of risks is assessed as being on the downside, particularly for 2012. Respondents assign a higher probability to outcomes below their point forecasts.
• Main Risks: Downside risks include low wage growth due to high unemployment, while upside risks include higher import prices due to the euro's depreciation, rising raw materials and oil prices, and increases in indirect taxes and administered prices due to fiscal consolidation.

Real GDP Growth Expectations

• 2010: Real GDP growth expectations remained at 1.1%.
• 2011: Real GDP growth expectations were slightly revised downwards to 1.4% from 1.5% in the previous round.
• 2012: Real GDP growth is expected at 1.6%.
• Longer-term (2015): Growth expectations remain at 1.8%, unchanged from the previous SPF round.
• Probability Distribution: The probability distribution for 2010 is more concentrated in the 1.0%–1.4% range, with 46% probability. For 2011, the highest probability (33%) is assigned to the same range.
• Risk Assessment: The balance of risks is on the downside across all horizons, especially for 2012. Downside risks include fiscal consolidation, weaker private consumption, and financial tensions. Upside risks include the positive effects of the euro's depreciation.

Unemployment Rate Expectations

• 2010: Unemployment rate expectations were revised downwards to 10.1% from 10.3%.
• 2011: Unemployment rate expectations were revised downwards to 10.2%.
• 2012: Unemployment rate expectations are at 9.8%.
• Longer-term (2015): Unemployment rate expectations were slightly revised downwards to 8.4%.
• Risk Assessment: The balance of risks is on the upside for both short and medium-term expectations, and also for the longer-term outlook.

Other Variables and Conditioning Assumptions

• Oil Prices: Expected to rise from $77 in Q3 2010 to around $87 in 2012.
• Wage Growth: Expected to be 1.4% in 2010, rising to 1.5% in 2011, 1.9% in 2012, and 2.4% by 2014.
• Euro Exchange Rate: Expected to weaken against the USD, standing at $1.23 in 2011 and $1.26 in 2012.
• ECB Policy Rate: Expected to remain stable at 1.0% until Q1 2011, then increase to 2.1% by 2012 on average.

Comparison with Other Indicators

• SPF vs Eurosystem Staff Projections: SPF inflation expectations for 2010 and 2011 are within the ranges reported by the Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections. SPF real GDP growth expectations for 2010 and 2011 are also within these ranges.
• SPF vs Consensus Economics: SPF inflation expectations for 2010 and 2011 are broadly similar to Consensus Economics, while longer-term inflation expectations for SPF are slightly higher than those of Consensus Economics.
• SPF vs Euro Zone Barometer: SPF inflation expectations for 2010 and 2011 are similar to the Euro Zone Barometer, but SPF expectations for 2012 are slightly higher. SPF real GDP growth expectations for 2010 and 2011 are broadly in line with the Euro Zone Barometer.
• Market-Based Measures: Financial market indicators of inflation expectations have remained unchanged but are generally higher than SPF forecasts due to an inflation risk premium. They are also more volatile, which should be interpreted with caution.

Conclusion

The SPF survey for Q3 2010 indicates a stable outlook for inflation and real GDP growth, with a slight downward revision in 2011 GDP growth and a slight upward revision in longer-term inflation expectations. Unemployment rate expectations have been revised downwards for 2010 and 2011, with a downward trend expected for 2012. The balance of risks is on the downside for all forecast horizons, with downside risks linked to fiscal consolidation, weak consumption, and financial tensions, and upside risks associated with the euro's depreciation and rising commodity prices.