2011年-ECB欧洲央行_Results_of_the_ECB_Survey_of_Professional_Forecasters_for_the_third_quarter_of_2011_5页_248kb

报告摘要

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - Third Quarter of 2011

Core Content

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2011 provides insights into inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment expectations for the euro area. The survey collected 50 responses from experts affiliated with financial and non-financial institutions in the EU.

Key Findings

Inflation Expectations

Shorter-term inflation expectations for 2011 and 2012 were revised slightly upwards to 2.6% and 2.0% respectively, compared to the previous SPF round (2.5% and 1.9%).
Inflation expectations for 2013 remained at 1.9%.
Longer-term inflation expectations for 2016 remained unchanged at 2.0%, with the median and mode also stable at this level.
The aggregate probability distribution for 2011 shifted significantly towards higher outcomes, with a 55% probability of inflation falling between 2.5% and 2.9%.
For 2012 and 2013, the highest probabilities remain in the 1.5–1.9% and 2.0–2.4% ranges, respectively, with over 30% assigned to each.
The balance of risks is slightly on the downside for the whole forecast horizon, mainly due to potential economic slowdowns.

GDP Growth Expectations

GDP growth expectations for 2011 were revised upwards to 1.9%, while for 2012 they were slightly downwards to 1.6%.
Expectations for 2013 remained at 1.8%.
The aggregate probability distribution for 2011 shifted towards higher outcomes, with almost 40% probability assigned to the 1.5–1.9% and 2.0–2.4% ranges.
For 2012 and 2013, the probability distributions are concentrated in the 1.5–1.9% range.
The balance of risks to the growth outlook is on the downside, with key risks including fiscal tightening, oil price increases, and slowdowns in emerging economies and the US.

Unemployment Rate Expectations

Unemployment rate expectations for 2011 and 2012 remained unchanged at 9.8% and 9.5%, respectively.
For 2013, the expectation is 9.2%.
Forecasters expect a gradual decline in unemployment over the forecast horizon.
The balance of risks is on the downside for 2011 and on the upside for 2012 and 2013.
Longer-term unemployment expectations for 2016 remained stable at 8.2%, with the balance of risks assessed as on the upside.

Conditioning Assumptions

Oil prices are expected to remain around USD 113 per barrel in 2011 and 2012, with a slight increase thereafter.
The euro/dollar exchange rate is expected to be around 1.43 in the third quarter of 2011 and then slightly depreciate.
The ECB's main refinancing rate is projected to increase gradually to 2.2% in 2012.
Average annual wage growth is expected to rise gradually to 2.2% in 2013.

Comparison with Other Forecasts

SPF forecasts for 2011–2013 inflation are broadly in line with those from Consensus Economics and the Euro Zone Barometer.
SPF longer-term inflation expectations for 2016 are 0.3 percentage points lower than those from Consensus Economics and 0.1 percentage points lower than those from the Euro Zone Barometer.
SPF GDP growth expectations for 2011 are slightly higher than those from Consensus Economics and the Euro Zone Barometer.
SPF unemployment rate expectations for 2011 and 2012 are consistent with those from the Euro Zone Barometer, while for 2013 they are slightly lower.

Summary of Risks and Uncertainty

Short-term inflation risks are mainly upside due to commodity price increases and tax hikes, but fiscal consolidation is expected to have a neutral effect.
Long-term inflation uncertainty has declined slightly, with the probability of inflation at or above 2.0% increasing to 52%.
GDP growth risks are downside, primarily due to fiscal tightening, oil price increases, and global demand slowdowns.
Unemployment risks are downside for 2011, but upside for 2012 and 2013 due to potential success of labor market reforms.

Conclusion

The SPF survey highlights a slight upward trend in short-term inflation expectations, driven by commodity prices and tax changes, while GDP growth expectations for 2011 were revised upwards and for 2012 downwards. Unemployment expectations remained stable, with a gradual decline anticipated. Longer-term inflation and growth expectations remained unchanged, but the balance of risks is on the downside for both.