2008年-ECB欧洲央行_Results_of_the_ECB_Survey_of_Professional_Forecasters_for_the_third_quarter_of_2008_5页_251kb

Box 5: Summary of ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) Results for Q3 2008

Core Content

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2008 provides insights into the expectations of euro area inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment rate from financial and non-financial experts. The survey was conducted between 16 and 18 July 2008.

Inflation Expectations

• 2008: SPF forecasters expect an average annual inflation rate of 3.6%, which is 0.6 percentage points higher than the previous SPF round (Q2 2008).
• 2009: The expected inflation rate is 2.6%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous round.
• 2010: SPF forecasts an inflation rate of 2.1%, matching the Euro Zone Barometer and slightly above Consensus Economics.
• Longer-term (2013): Inflation expectations have risen to 2.03%, up by 0.08 percentage points from 1.95%. This is the highest level since the start of the survey in 1999.
• Probability Distributions:
  • For 2008, the most likely inflation range is 3.5% to 3.9% with a 57% probability.
  • For 2009, the most likely inflation range is 2.5% to 2.9% with a 37% probability.
  • The probability of inflation being 2.0% or below has dropped to 29% from 44% in the previous SPF round.
  • The interval "4.0% or above" has a 10% probability for 2008.

Real GDP Growth Expectations

• 2008: Expected real GDP growth remains at 1.6%, unchanged from the previous SPF round.
• 2009: The average growth expectation has been revised down by 0.3 percentage points to 1.3%, reflecting concerns over lower investment growth, weak exports, and reduced consumer spending.
• 2010: SPF forecasts a real GDP growth rate of 2.1%, slightly higher than the Euro Zone Barometer (1.9%) and in line with Consensus Economics (April 2008 issue).
• Longer-term (2013): Growth expectations remain at 2.1%.

Unemployment Rate Expectations

• 2008: SPF expects the unemployment rate to be 7.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous SPF round.
• 2009: The rate is expected to rise to 7.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points.
• 2010: SPF forecasts 7.4%, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than the Euro Zone Barometer.
• Longer-term (2013): Unemployment is expected to decrease to 6.9%, up by 0.3 percentage points from the previous round. Forecasters attribute this to continued labor market reforms.

Key Information

• The SPF reflects a diverse set of expert opinions, leading to heterogeneous expectations.
• Upside risks to inflation forecasts include rising oil, food, and commodity prices, as well as higher nominal wage growth.
• Downside risks include economic slowdown and weak consumption growth.
• Longer-term inflation expectations have become more divergent, with a standard deviation increase from 0.1 to 0.2.
• Break-even inflation rates are used as a market-based indicator of inflation expectations, but they may include risk premia.

Comparison with Other Indicators

• SPF inflation expectations for 2008 and 2009 are within the ranges of the Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections and in line with Consensus Economics and Euro Zone Barometer.
• For 2009, SPF expectations are 0.2 percentage points higher than the Euro Zone Barometer.
• SPF real GDP growth expectations for 2008 are similar to the Euro Zone Barometer and Consensus Economics, but for 2009 they are 0.1 percentage points higher.
• SPF unemployment expectations for 2008 and 2009 are in line with Consensus Economics and the Euro Zone Barometer.

Summary of Main Views

• Inflation is expected to rise in 2008 and 2009 due to high energy and commodity prices, while longer-term expectations have increased.
• GDP growth is expected to slow in 2009 due to economic uncertainty, tight financing, and a strong euro.
• Unemployment is forecast to increase in 2008 and 2009, with a slight decline expected in the longer term, driven by labor market reforms.

Conclusion

The SPF results for Q3 2008 indicate a shift in inflation expectations upwards for 2008 and 2009, with a higher probability of higher inflation. GDP growth is expected to be lower in 2009, while unemployment is projected to rise. The divergence in longer-term expectations highlights increased uncertainty among forecasters.