2014年-ECB欧洲央行_Results_of_the_ECB_Survey_of_Professional_Forecasters_for_the_third_quarter_of_2014_6页_293kb

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - Third Quarter of 2014 Summary

Core Content

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2014 provides insights into inflation, real GDP growth, and unemployment expectations for the euro area over the period 2014–2016 and the long-term (five years ahead). The survey received 59 responses from experts affiliated with financial or non-financial institutions in the EU.

Inflation Expectations

• Short-term inflation expectations (2014–2016):
  The SPF point forecasts for inflation are 0.7%, 1.2%, and 1.5% for 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively. These represent slight downward revisions from the previous quarter (Q2 2014), where forecasts were 0.9%, 1.3%, and 1.5%.

• Long-term inflation expectations (2019):
  The SPF average point forecast for long-term inflation increased slightly to 1.86%, up from 1.85% in the previous round. The median of the point forecasts remained at 1.9% for the third consecutive round.

• Aggregate probability distributions:
  The mean of the aggregated probability distribution for 2014–2016 inflation is 1.75%, slightly below the point forecast of 1.86%, indicating downside risks are perceived. The probability of inflation being at or above 2.0% decreased from 39% to 37%, while the probability of inflation below 1.0% dropped to 11%.

• Qualitative comments:
  Forecasters believe the inflation trough has been reached, and inflation is expected to rise gradually due to economic recovery and the unwinding of past disinflationary pressures. The probability of negative inflation remains low at 3.1%, 2.5%, and 1.2% for 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively.

Real GDP Growth Expectations

• Short-term growth expectations (2014–2016):
  The SPF point forecasts for real GDP growth are 1.0%, 1.5%, and 1.7% for 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively. These reflect a gradual strengthening of economic activity.

• Comparison with other forecasts:
  SPF expectations are in line with the Euro Zone Barometer for 2016 but slightly lower than Consensus Economics for 2014 and 2015. SPF forecasts are 0.2 percentage points lower than the Eurosystem's 2015 projections and 0.1 percentage points lower for 2016.

• Aggregate probability distributions:
  The distributions for 2014 and 2015 have shifted towards lower outcomes, with the highest probability assigned to the 1.0%–1.4% range. The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, mainly due to geopolitical tensions and lower external demand.

Unemployment Rate Expectations

• Short-term unemployment expectations (2014–2016):
  The SPF forecasts for the unemployment rate are 11.6%, 11.3%, and 10.8% for 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively. These represent downward revisions of 0.2 percentage points for each year compared to the previous survey.

• Long-term unemployment expectations (2019):
  The SPF long-term forecast is 9.4%, slightly lower than the previous round. The aggregate probability distribution is now more concentrated in the 9.0%–10.4% range (52%), indicating greater confidence in the central estimate.

• Qualitative comments:
  The modest recovery is seen as reducing unemployment slowly. Labour market reforms in southern Europe and the EU job support initiatives are expected to slow the decline in unemployment. Upside risks include faster recovery and earlier effects of structural reforms, while downside risks are linked to unexpected competitiveness gains.

Other Variables and Assumptions

• Oil prices:
  Forecasts for oil prices remain practically unchanged, with prices expected to stay around USD 107 per barrel until 2016.

• Euro exchange rate:
  The euro is expected to remain around 1.35 against the dollar in 2014, gradually declining to 1.31 in 2015 and 1.29 in 2016.

• Compensation per employee growth:
  Growth is expected to remain around 1.4% in 2015 and 1.6% in 2016, with 2.2% expected for the five-year horizon.

• ECB's main refinancing rate:
  The rate is expected to remain broadly flat for the next four quarters, with a marginal downward trend in the short term and a more significant one in the medium term. It is forecasted to be 0.15% until mid-2015, then increase to 0.17% in 2015 and 0.35% in 2016.

Key Findings

• Inflation expectations are moderate and show a gradual upward trend.
• Real GDP growth is expected to strengthen gradually, but downside risks remain due to external and domestic factors.
• Unemployment is expected to decline slowly, with downside risks related to unexpected competitiveness gains.
• Long-term inflation expectations remain stable, with a slight increase to 1.86%.
• Uncertainty in long-term inflation forecasts has increased, but aggregate uncertainty remains unchanged.
• Disagreement among forecasters has risen, particularly due to one large outlier.