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报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides a summary of oil and gas market developments and investment analysis as of 5 August 2015. It includes updates on global and regional prices, news headlines, and Maybank Kim Eng's latest reports on specific companies in the oil and gas sector.
Key Market Developments
- Crude Oil Prices:
- Brent fell by 0.8% to USD49.59/b, with a 1D change of -0.40, 1W of -7.1%, and 1M of -13.0%.
- WTI dropped by 1.3% to USD45.15/b, with a 1D change of -0.59, 1W of -7.5%, and 1M of -14.6%.
- LNG Prices:
- Northeast Asia CFR spot LNG prices rose to $8.20/MMBtu, with a slight contango across September and October.
- A recent deal for December delivery to Japan was at $8.30-8.40/MMBtu.
- Gas Prices:
- Dubai Fateh Spot fell by 0.1% to USD48.54/b, with a 1D change of -0.05, 1W of -8.3%, and 1M of -15.5%.
- China Daqing Spot remained stable at USD52.13/b, with 0.0% change over 1D, 8.0% over 1W, and -2.9% over 1M.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot fell by 0.3% to USD64.83/b, with a 1D change of +0.18, 1W of -9.0%, and 1M of -9.2%.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot declined by 1.1% to USD62.80/b, with a 1D change of -0.71, 1W of -1.0%, and 1M of -12.9%.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot rose by 0.2% to USD275.12/mt, with a 1D change of +0.52, 1W of -2.7%, and 1M of -14.6%.
- Gold fell by 0.2% to USD1,085.03/Oz, with a 1D change of -2.67, 1W of -1.1%, and 1M of -7.3%.
- USD-CNY remained unchanged at 6.21, with 0.0% change over 1D, 1W, and 1M.
- DJI fell by 0.1% to 17,540.47, with a 1D change of -10.22, 1W of -1.2%, and 1M of -0.8%.
- S&P 500 rose by 0.3% to 2,099.84, with a 1D change of +6.52, 1W of -0.4%, and 1M of +1.5%.
News Headlines
- Russian Gas Exports to Europe:
- Gazprom reported a record increase in gas exports to Europe in July, with prices tied to oil from January 2015.
- This surge helps Gazprom to navigate its worst year in history.
- Autumn Demand Lull:
- Oil demand is expected to decline in autumn due to reduced summer road trips and refinery maintenance, which may further pressure prices.
- ExxonMobil Investment in Nigeria:
- The company plans a $3 billion investment in the Nigerian gas sector, highlighting the need for a supportive commercial environment.
- China's Fuel Price Cut:
- China announced a reduction in retail fuel prices, with gasoline down 0.16 yuan per liter and diesel 0.18 yuan per liter.
- Sinopec Denies Staff Recall Reports:
- The company clarified that only 263 of its global staff will be relocated, not 40% as previously reported.
- Asia's Spot LNG Prices:
- Spot LNG prices in Northeast Asia are at or above $8.00/MMBtu for delivery in September and October, with some buyers in South Korea and Japan still showing interest.
Our Latest Reports
Petronas Gas
- Pre-planned shutdowns:
- Maintenance completed in 2Q15, no major shutdowns planned for 2H15.
- Rating: HOLD, Target Price (TP) unchanged at MYR24.00.
PetroVietnam Drilling
- Initiation: Jobs secured, aligned with NOC:
- Share price down -52% from the peak in September 2014.
- Drilling contractor providing services for Vietnam's offshore E&P.
- Rating: BUY, TP at MYR24.00.
Malaysia Oil & Gas
- Iran reaches agreement with P5+1:
- Iran could increase oil production by 200k-700k bpd once sanctions are lifted.
- Rating: NEUTRAL, focus on production-business operators.
- Preferred BUYs: Yinson, Bumi Armada, Dialog, KNM.
SapuraKencana Petroleum
- Bags ONGC's USD273m turnkey job:
- Deal has decent value but limited impact on earnings.
- Rating: HOLD, TP at MYR2.80.
Asia Oil & Gas Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price 5-Aug | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD b) | 90D T/O (USD m) | PER 2015E | PER 2016E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2016E | ROE % 2015E | P/BV (x) 2015E | Yield (%) 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 7.36 | 8.30 | 302.2 | 119.5 | 21.4 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 2.1 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 5.77 | 7.70 | 110.2 | 101.8 | 16.0 | 11.3 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 3.1 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 9.43 | 16.80 | 54.3 | 96.2 | 13.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 6.3 | 0.9 | 2.6 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 266.4 | NR | 35.7 | 19.4 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 13.3 | 1.2 | 3.7 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 988.0 | NR | 50.1 | 61.1 | 13.3 | 12.2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 11.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Hold | 166.3 | 198.00 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 11.7 | 0.5 | 5.5 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 933.6 | NR | 10.6 | 21.4 | 21.5 | 13.1 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 15.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 915.0 | NR | 4.9 | 19.6 | 23.4 | 14.3 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 61.3 | 87.00 | 7.9 | 25.3 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 11.7 | 1.1 | 4.7 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | Buy | 318.0 | 395.00 | 25.9 | 46.4 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 11.9 | 1.2 | 3.8 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 48.3 | 65.00 | 2.8 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 13.6 | 1.1 | 5.2 |
Asia Oil-Service Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price 5-Aug | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD b) | 90D T/O (USD m) | PER 2015E | PER 2016E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2016E | ROE % 2015E | P/BV (x) 2015E | Yield (%) 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AlamMaritim | AMRB MK | Sell | 0.49 | 0.50 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Barakah Offshore | BARAKAH MK | Buy | 0.98 | 1.15 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 12.1 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 18.1 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | Buy | 1.08 | 1.60 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | Buy | 1.60 | 1.90 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 31.5 | 29.5 | 25.7 | 25.7 | 14.1 | 4.0 | 1.4 |
| KNM | KNMG MK | Buy | 0.58 | 1.00 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| SapuraKencana | SAKP MK | Hold | 2.40 | 2.80 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 11.8 | 16.0 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 11.0 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Yinson | YNS MK | Buy | 2.95 | 4.35 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 21.4 | 19.0 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 13.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
Analyst Contact Information
- HK/CHINA: Howard Wong, (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- INDIA: Jigar Shah, (91) 2266232632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- INDONESIA: Pandu Anugrah, (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- MALAYSIA: Liaw Thong Jung, (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- PHILIPPINES: Michael Bengson, (63) 28498840, micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
- SINGAPORE: Yeah Chee Keong, (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- THAILAND: Sutthichai Kumworachai, (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- VIETNAM: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen, (84) 844555888x8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
- VIETNAM: Truong Quang Binh, (84) 444555888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Summary
The document highlights the recent market trends in oil and gas, including the drop in crude oil prices and the rise in LNG prices. It also provides investment ratings and target prices for various companies across Asia and other regions. Key news includes increased Russian gas exports to Europe, potential autumn demand lull, ExxonMobil's investment in Nigeria, and China's fuel price cuts. The analysis suggests that while some companies are recommended for investment, others are under review or not rated, indicating varying levels of market confidence.
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