20150710-Maybank_KERPL-Grease_Spot_–_10_Jul_2015_11页_372kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 10 Jul 2015

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market as of 9 July 2015, including price movements, analyst insights, and company-specific reports. It highlights key developments in various countries and offers investment ratings and financial outlooks for several energy firms.

Key Market Movements

Brent Crude: Increased by 2.7% to USD58.61/b, with a 1.56 USD gain in the last day.
WTI Crude: Rose by 2.2% to USD52.78/b, with a 1.13 USD gain.
Dubai Fateh Spot: Up 1.7% to USD56.82/b, with a 0.97 USD gain.
China Daqing Spot: Increased by 1.4% to USD52.51/b, with a 0.70 USD gain.
NYMEX Henry Hub: Rose 1.5% to USD2.73/MMBtu, with a 0.04 USD gain.
LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Increased 1.4% to USD7.38/MMBtu, with a 0.00 USD gain.
Singapore 92 RON Spot: Up 1.5% to USD74.22/b, with a 1.12 USD gain.
Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Increased by 0.0% to USD70.53/b, with a 0.02 USD gain.
3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Down 0.1% to USD317.58/mt, with a -0.26 USD change.
Gold: Increased 0.1% to USD1,159.43/Oz, with a 1.10 USD gain.
USD-CNY: Stable at 6.21, with 0.00 USD change.
DJI: Up 0.2% to 17,548.62, with a 33.20 USD gain.
S&P 500: Increased 0.2% to 2,051.31, with a 4.63 USD gain.

Main News Headlines

Brazil Exploration Spending: Oil companies are expected to invest about 2.8 billion reais (870 million USD) to complete minimum exploration work at concessions to be auctioned in October. Signing bonuses for offshore and onshore blocks are expected to reach 979 million reais.
US Gas Storage Injection: Analysts expect the US Energy Information Administration to estimate a 84-88 Bcf gas storage injection for the week ending July 3, which is lower than the 94-Bcf build from 2014 but higher than the 75-Bcf five-year average.
Iran Crude Exports to Asia: More than half of incremental Iranian crude exports are expected to head to Asia once Western sanctions are lifted, with 30-40% likely to go to Europe.
China's Oil Market Concerns: The energy market is increasingly focused on China's financial situation, as the country's oil consumption growth has slowed.
China's Peak Oil: China's oil production is peaking in 2015, which has significant implications for the global oil market, as China is one of the world's largest oil producers.

Our Latest Reports

Petronas Chemicals

Rating: HOLD
Target Price: MYR6.60 (up from MYR5.35)
Notes: Petrochemical ASPs are down 25% YTD in USD and 13% in MYR. The weaker MYR against USD could provide upside potential to earnings forecasts.

NewOcean Energy

Rating: BUY
Target Price: HKD7.70 (implies 105% upside)
Notes: Volume and margin are on track to meet FY15 projections. Margin trends and forex impact were frequently discussed.

Trans-Asia Oil & Energy Development

Rating: BUY
Notes: Earnings and target price were reduced for 2015-17 due to delays in plant commissioning and lower Feed-in Tariff. Earnings are expected to more than triple in 2016 with the operation of the 2 × 135 MW coal-fired power plant.

Gas Malaysia

Rating: HOLD
Target Price: MYR2.65 (down 12% from previous)
Notes: The MYR1.58/mmBTU FY15 spread guidance is an increase from current levels but a drop from the previous base. IBR could begin in Jan 2016 with a pass-through mechanism. FY15/16/17 earnings are revised by +68% / -12% / -33%.

Asian Oil & Gas Valuations

Company	Ticker	Rating	Price (9-Jul)	Target Price	Market Cap (USD b)	90D T/O (USD m)	PER (2015E)	PER (2016E)	EV/EBITDA (2015E)	EV/EBITDA (2016E)	ROE (%)	P/BV (x)	Yield (%)
PetroChina - H	857 HK	Sell	8.02	8.30	357.5	165.9	23.3	14.5	7.2	5.8	4.2	1.0	1.9
Sinopec - H	386 HK	Hold	6.13	7.70	130.1	140.4	17.0	12.0	6.8	5.8	5.6	1.0	2.9
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	Buy	9.96	16.80	57.4	130.6	14.5	9.0	4.3	3.4	6.3	0.9	2.5
ONGC	ONGC IN	NR	298.7	NR	40.3	20.5	10.8	9.5	5.3	4.8	13.3	1.4	3.3
Reliance Industries	RIL IN	NR	987.4	NR	50.4	66.3	13.3	12.2	11.1	9.7	11.2	1.4	1.0
Cairn India	CAIR IN	Hold	165.2	198.00	4.9	9.0	4.5	7.2	1.6	2.5	11.7	0.5	5.5
BPCL	BPCL IN	NR	866.7	NR	9.9	19.6	19.9	12.2	10.0	7.4	15.2	2.9	1.8
HPCL	HPCL IN	NR	805.1	NR	4.3	16.8	20.6	12.4	9.4	8.0	8.8	1.8	2.1
Petron Corp	PCOR PM	Buy	8.25	11.25	1.7	0.5	18.8	11.2	8.3	7.3	4.4	0.8	0.6
Phoenix Petro	PNX PM	Buy	3.18	5.00	0.1	0.1	4.9	3.9	6.9	5.5	12.9	0.6	3.1
S-Oil	010950 KS	NR	60,600	NR	6.0	26.8	9.0	8.7	6.8	6.6	15.0	1.2	2.8
SK Innovation	096770 KS	NR	109,000	NR	8.9	48.2	8.4	8.4	7.3	7.1	7.8	0.6	2.4
GS Holdings	078930 KS	NR	47,250	NR	3.9	16.3	8.9	8.8	10.9	10.4	7.8	0.7	2.6
Formosa Petrochemical	6505 TT	NR	76.80	NR	23.5	10.5	23.7	22.0	14.1	14.0	12.2	2.9	3.1
Petronas Gas	PTG MK	Hold	21.12	24.00	11.0	5.8	23.1	22.9	13.9	13.6	16.7	3.8	3.0
PTT Global Chemical PCL	PTTGC TB	Buy	66.3	87.00	8.8	26.1	10.7	9.4	7.0	6.4	11.6	1.2	4.2
PTT PCL	PTT TB	Buy	338.0	395.00	28.5	49.4	10.7	9.5	6.9	6.4	11.7	1.3	3.6
Thai Oil PCL	TOP TB	Sell	54.3	65.00	3.3	11.0	10.5	10.1	6.6	6.3	12.3	1.2	4.2
PetroVietnam Gas	GAS VN	Buy	63,000	92,000	5.5	1.2	12.1	11.0	6.1	5.5	26.1	3.0	5.0
Asian Oil & Gas Average	-	-	-	-	-	-	18.7	13.3	3.6	6.3	6.3	1.1	2.3

Key Analysts

Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): Contact details provided.
Jigar Shah (INDIA): Contact details provided.
Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): Contact details provided.
Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): Contact details provided.
Michael Bengson (PHILIPPINES): Contact details provided.
Yeah Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): Contact details provided.
Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): Contact details provided.
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen and Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): Contact details provided.