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报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 18 July 2014
Core Content
This document provides a summary of the regional oil and gas market performance and analyst insights for the week of 18 July 2014. It includes information on price movements, company-specific news, and valuation comparisons across various markets, including China, India, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. The document also highlights key stock recommendations and target prices from Maybank Kim Eng analysts.
Major Market Trends
- U.S. Indices: On Friday trading, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 rose by 0.7% and 1.0% respectively.
- Brent Crude Oil: Closed at USD107.24 per barrel, down 0.65 USD or 0.6% from the previous day.
- LNG Prices: The LNG Northeast Asia CFR price fell 6.8% MoM in June to USD13.80/MMBtu.
- China LPG Spot Prices: Declined due to weak demand and high supply, with prices in Guangdong ranging from CNY5,903 to CNY6,250/mt.
- China Naphtha Consumption: Apparent consumption reached 27.21m tonnes in Jan-May 2014, with domestic production at 26.53m tonnes.
Key Company News
- Ezion Holdings: Secured USD269m in contracts, with a target price of SGD2.70. Maintained BUY rating.
- Nam Cheong Ltd: Optimism reinforced, with a target price of SGD0.55. Reiterated BUY rating.
- UMW Oil & Gas Corporation: Secured its first drilling contract in Myanmar for USD51m, with a target price of MYR4.16. Reiterated BUY rating.
- Sinopec: Restructuring update; no IPO planned. Maintained HOLD rating with a target price of HKD6.85.
- Yinson Holdings: No major surprises reported. Target price adjusted to MYR3.03. Reiterated BUY rating.
- Petron Corp: RMP-2 nearing completion, with a target price of PHP16.80. Reiterated BUY rating.
- PetroChina: Initiated with BUY rating and target price of HKD11.50. Expected to benefit from energy reforms.
- NewOcean Energy: Reiterated BUY rating with target price of HKD8.88. Seen as a key player in auto LNG.
- Cairn India: Initiated with BUY rating and target price of MYR5.30. Secured EPCIC contracts worth MYR1.3b.
- PTT Global Chemical PCL: Initiated with BUY rating and target price of MYR87.00.
- Thai Oil PCL: Initiated with SELL rating and target price of MYR65.00.
Analysts Contact Information
- Howard Wong (HK/China): (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- Jigar Shah (India): (91) 2266232601, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- Pandu Anugrah (Indonesia): (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- Liaw Thong Jung (Malaysia): (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- Bianca Solema (Philippines): (63) 28498835, bianca_solema@maybank-atrke.com
- Laura Dy-Liacco (Philippines): (63) 28498840, laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com
- Yeast Chee Keong (Singapore): (65) 6432 1460, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- Sutthichai Kumworachai (Thailand): (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (Vietnam): (84) 844555888 × 8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
- Truong Quang Binh (Vietnam): (84) 444555888 × 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Valuation Comparison
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (18-Jul) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USDm) | P/E 2014E | P/E 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2014E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Buy | 10.18 | 11.50 | 224.8 | 82.9 | 11.2 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 11.3 | 1.2 | 4.0 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 7.32 | 6.85 | 97.2 | 73.2 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 11.7 | 1.1 | 4.1 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Hold | 13.48 | 14.34 | 77.6 | 83.3 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 15.1 | 1.3 | 4.0 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 410.50 | NR | 58.2 | 51.9 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 18.0 | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 976.75 | NR | 52.4 | 72.0 | 12.0 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 12.3 | 1.4 | 3.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Buy | 345.35 | 443.00 | 10.9 | 16.8 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 23.6 | 4.8 | 4.1 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 583.00 | NR | 7.0 | 19.1 | 14.4 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 14.4 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 395.45 | NR | 2.2 | 13.6 | 9.2 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 9.6 | 0.9 | 2.9 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 12.32 | 16.80 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 15.4 | 7.9 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | Buy | 6.20 | 7.05 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 13.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 67.50 | 87.00 | 9.5 | 24.7 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 13.9 | 1.2 | 5.1 |
| PetroVietnam Gas | GAS VN | Buy | 110,000 | 103,000 | 9.8 | 1.8 | 16.5 | 15.3 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 34.2 | 5.1 | 2.7 |
| Asian E&P average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 11.7 | 11.3 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 15.8 | 2.0 | 3.3 |
Summary of Key Insights
- Market Sentiment: Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the long-term fundamentals of the offshore oil and gas sector, but are cautious about near-term challenges.
- Energy Reforms: Phase II of China's energy reform is underway, with natural gas liberalization, unconventional gas production, and natural gas vehicles as key themes.
- Company Performance: Several companies are showing positive signs with new contracts and operational updates, while others face challenges such as low earnings and stretched valuations.
- Valuation Metrics: The document compares P/E, EV/EBITDA, and other financial metrics across the region, highlighting varying levels of performance and potential for growth.
This summary captures the essential market dynamics and company-specific updates relevant to the regional oil and gas sector as of 18 July 2014.
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