20140612-Maybank_KERPL-Grease_Spot_–_12_June_2014_11页_571kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 12 June 2014
Core Content Overview
The summary provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market as of 12 June 2014, highlighting key price movements, news headlines, and analyst reports from various countries in Asia, including China, India, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. It also includes information on oil and gas service companies and their valuations.
Major Oil & Gas Prices and Indexes (Closing as of 11 June 2014)
| Commodity/Service | Bloomberg Ticker | Units | Last Price | Dollar Chg. 1D | 1D Change | 1W Change | 1M Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil (Brent) | COA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 109.95 | 0.43 | 0.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | CLA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 104.40 | 0.05 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 4.5% |
| Dubai Fateh Spot | PGCRDUBA Index | USD/bbl. | 105.75 | 0.22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.3% |
| China Daqing Spot | APCRDAQG Index | USD/bbl. | 108.31 | -0.01 | 0.0% | 0.4% | -2.3% |
| NYMEX Henry Hub | NGA COMDTY | USD/MMBtu | 4.53 | 0.00 | 0.0% | -2.3% | 2.1% |
| LNG Northeast Asia CFR | JKMSGM1 Index | USD/MMBtu | 13.80 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.4% |
| Singapore 92 RON Spot | MOGFM92S Index | USD/bbl. | 117.56 | 0.29 | 0.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot | GASL500P Index | USD/bbl. | 119.91 | 0.49 | 0.4% | 0.5% | -1.5% |
| 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot | N6SH180S Index | USD/mt | 610.96 | 2.06 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.4% |
| Gold | XAU CURNCY | USD/Oz | 1,261.07 | 1.17 | 0.1% | 1.4% | -2.7% |
| USD-CNY | USDCNY CURNCY | Fx rate | 6.23 | 0.00 | 0.0% | -0.4% | -0.1% |
| DJI | DJI INDEX | Index | 16,843.88 | -102.04 | -0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| S&P 500 | SPX INDEX | Index | 1,943.89 | -6.90 | -0.4% | 0.8% | 2.5% |
Key News Headlines
- China stockpiling crude inventories at record pace: China is increasing its strategic crude reserves, supporting oil prices and providing a buffer against supply disruptions. The goal is to build a 100-day reserve of net imports by 2020.
- China takes oil rig case to the U.N.: China has escalated the oil rig dispute with Vietnam to the United Nations.
- CNOOC ramping up production in south China coast: CNOOC is increasing production at the Weizhou rig, which accounts for about 4% of its global production.
- Japan May ethylene output up 5.4% MoM: Japan's ethylene production increased by 5.4% month-over-month but decreased by 4.3% year-over-year.
- Agility lands COSL deal: Norway's Agility Group has secured a USD7.9m contract with China Oilfield Services Ltd (COSL).
- China's Tangshan Sanyou to shut down soda ash facility for maintenance: The company will shut its 2.3mtpa plant from 16 June.
- Taiwan's Ming Dih to increase EPS capacity in Thailand: The company plans to increase its EPS capacity through debottlenecking in August.
Analyst Reports
Perusahaan Gas Negara
- Rating: HOLD
- Target Price: IDR5,500
- Comment: Earnings growth is expected to be tepid with margin pressure likely to persist. LNG operations are set to underpin gas volume over the next three years but at the expense of margin.
SapuraKencana Petroleum
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: MYR5.30
- Comment: Made four significant gas discoveries offshore Sarawak. A Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) is likely to be signed by year-end.
Phoenix Petroleum Philippines
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: PHP7.05
- Comment: Maintained BUY rating with a revised target price of PHP7.05. The company is performing well, up 25ppts over the PSEi return.
Valuation Comparison
Asia Oil & Gas Valuation Comparison
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 11-Jun | Target Price | Mkt Cap USD | 90D T/O USDm | P/E (X) 2013 | P/E (X) 2014E | EV/EBITDA (X) 2013 | EV/EBITDA (X) 2014E | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | NR | 9.50 | NR | 221.1 | 88.3 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 11.8 | 1.2 | 4.2 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | NR | 7.28 | NR | 99.0 | 89.9 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 12.2 | 1.2 | 4.2 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | NR | 13.48 | NR | 77.6 | 96.1 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 17.3 | 1.4 | 4.2 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 427.30 | NR | 61.5 | 39.6 | 15.1 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 16.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 1,102.10 | NR | 60.0 | 75.7 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 12.8 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | buy | 370.95 | 443.00 | 11.9 | 17.2 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 25.1 | 1.5 | 3.1 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 607.05 | NR | 7.4 | 16.0 | 23.3 | 16.0 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 11.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 427.85 | NR | 2.4 | 12.1 | 28.9 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | buy | 11.88 | 15.90 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 26.4 | 33.9 | 12.9 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | buy | 6.33 | 7.22 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 14.4 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 12.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | buy | 66.75 | 87.00 | 9.3 | 25.1 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 14.3 | 10.1 | 14.4 | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | buy | 299.00 | 395.00 | 26.3 | 34.3 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 14.7 | 1.3 | 4.0 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | sell | 50.50 | 65.00 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 11.7 | 1.1 | 4.6 |
Asia Oil Service Valuation Comparison
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 11-Jun | Target Price | Mkt Cap USD | 90D T/O USDm | P/E (X) 2013 | P/E (X) 2014E | EV/EBITDA (X) 2013 | EV/EBITDA (X) 2014E | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Oilfield Services | 3337 HK | NR | 5.70 | NR | 1.6 | 6.1 | 25.4 | 22.4 | 12.6 | 10.2 | 18.0 | 4.2 | 0.0 |
| China Oilfield Services-H | 2883 HK | NR | 19.78 | NR | 12.7 | 23.5 | 10.5 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 19.3 | 1.9 | 2.7 |
| Chu Kong Petroleum | 1938 HK | NR | 2.81 | NR | 0.4 | 0.7 | 55.7 | 20.9 | 24.5 | 15.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Hilong Holding | 1623 HK | NR | 4.40 | NR | 1.0 | 4.4 | 16.8 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 14.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Honghua Group | 196 HK | NR | 1.94 | NR | 0.8 | 2.3 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 11.7 | 1.0 | 3.1 |
| Sinopec Engineering-H | 2386 HK | NR | 9.28 | NR | 5.3 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 26.1 | 1.5 | 4.4 |
| SPT Energy | 1251 HK | NR | 4.55 | NR | 0.9 | 2.6 | 18.3 | 15.7 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.3 |
| Sapurakencana | SAKP MK | buy | 4.17 | 5.30 | 7.8 | 12.2 | 39.8 | 23.0 | 31.8 | 18.9 | 13.8 | 3.3 | 0.0 |
| UMW O&G | UMWOG MK | buy | 4.06 | 5.15 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 35.6 | 31.2 | 18.7 | 19.2 | 12.4 | 3.1 | 0.2 |
Summary of Key Information
- Market Trends: Oil prices showed mixed performance with Brent continuing to rise, while the S&P 500 and DJI retreated.
- China's Strategic Reserves: China is increasing its crude oil reserves, which supports oil prices and provides a buffer against supply disruptions.
- CNOOC's Expansion: CNOOC is increasing production in the South China Sea, contributing to its global output.
- Japan's Ethylene Output: Japan's ethylene production increased by 5.4% MoM but decreased by 4.3% YoY.
- Service Contracts: Agility Group secured a USD7.9m contract with COSL, indicating growth in the sector.
- Maintenance and Expansion: Several companies are planning maintenance or expansion, including Tangshan Sanyou and Ming Dih.
- Valuation Metrics: The summary includes detailed valuations for oil and gas companies and service providers, highlighting their financial performance and market positions.
This summary offers a comprehensive view of the regional oil and gas market dynamics, including price movements, news, and valuation data for various companies.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
