20140530-Maybank_KERPL-Grease_Spot_11页_573kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 30 May 2014

Core Content Overview

The summary covers recent developments and market trends in the oil and gas sector across Asia, including price movements, investment activities, and company-specific updates. It also provides valuation comparisons and analyst ratings for key players in the region.

Price Movements

WTI Crude Oil: Gained 0.8% overnight, closing at $103.58 per barrel.
Henry Hub: Declined by 1.2%, closing at $4.56 per MMBtu.
LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Remained stable at $14.40 per MMBtu, with no change in price.

Key News Highlights

China

Shandong Refineries: Independent refineries in Shandong increased their loading rate to 41.7%, up 0.4% from the previous week and 8.1% YoY.
Guangdong Refineries: Minor refineries had an average capacity utilisation of 5.4%, with only three of 19 operational.
PetroChina and CNOOC: Both companies are involved in ongoing disputes with CNOOC over sea rig positions.
LG Chem: Procured 25kt of naphtha for 1H July at a $18/tonne premium to CFR Japan price.

Mexico

Pemex & China: In final negotiations for a $4 billion oil & gas investment fund.

Japan

Inpex: Sold its 630kt equity portion of the Prelude LNG project to two Japanese buyers.
Lawmakers: Propose a 1,350km gas pipeline from Russia's Sakhalin Island to Japan's Ibaraki prefecture.

Thailand

New Junta: Could lead to energy sector reforms due to potential political stability.
PTT Global Chemical PCL: Valuation shows a buy rating with a target price of $87.00.
Thai Oil PCL: Has a sell rating with a target price of $65.00.

India

HPCL: Plans to grow refining capacity by 81% by 2019, investing $9.2 billion.
ONGC: Shows a buy rating with a target price not specified.

Vietnam

PetroVietnam Gas: Seeking peaceful resolution to sea disputes with CNOOC.
PetroVietnam Gas: Has a buy rating with a target price of $103,000.

Company Valuation Comparison

Company	Ticker	KE Rating	Price (29 May)	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USD)	90D T/O (USD)	P/E (2013)	P/E (2014E)	EV/EBITDA (2013)	EV/EBITDA (2014E)	RoE (%)	P/B (X)	Yield (%)
PetroChina - H	857 HK	NR	9.22	NR	223.1	93.8	10.3	10.2	6.1	5.3	11.8	1.2	4.4
Sinopec - H	386 HK	NR	7.07	NR	98.0	101.0	9.8	9.0	5.4	4.8	12.2	1.1	4.3
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	NR	13.58	NR	78.2	98.9	8.5	8.6	3.9	3.8	17.3	1.4	4.2
ONGC	ONGC IN	NR	374.15	NR	54.3	31.6	13.2	9.8	7.7	4.9	16.8	2.1	2.5
Reliance Industries	RIL IN	NR	1,073.55	NR	58.9	75.4	15.2	13.0	12.5	10.0	11.9	1.7	0.8
Cairn India	CAIR IN	buy	341.40	443.00	11.1	16.1	5.4	4.7	3.6	3.1	25.1	1.4	3.4
BPCL	BPCL IN	NR	536.10	NR	6.6	14.5	20.6	15.7	8.1	8.9	11.5	2.3	2.1
HPCL	HPCL IN	NR	411.10	NR	2.4	10.7	27.8	10.2	12.9	9.2	3.7	1.0	2.1

Analyst Ratings

UMW Holdings: Reiterate BUY with a target price of MYR12.44.
Bumi Armada: Results disappointing, reiterate BUY with a target price of MYR4.55.
Vard Holdings: BUY with a target price of SGD1.27.
Perdana Petroleum: BUY with a target price of MYR2.55.

Summary of Key Points

Price Trends: WTI rose 0.8%, while Henry Hub fell 1.2%.
Investment Activity: Mexico and China are in talks for a $4 billion investment fund, and CNPC plans to invest $2 billion in Peru over the next decade.
Capacity Utilisation: Shandong refineries saw a 41.7% average utilisation, while Guangdong's minor refiners had only 5.4%.
LNG Market: Inpex sold its stake in the Prelude LNG project, and LG Chem procured naphtha at a premium.
Energy Sector Reforms: Thailand's new junta may lead to reform initiatives.
Company Valuations: Highlighted in the table above, with buy, hold, and sell ratings based on financial performance and market expectations.

Analyst Contacts

Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): (852) 22680648 | howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
Jigar Shah (INDIA): (91) 22 6623 2601 | jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): (62) 21 2557 1137 | pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): (603) 22978688 | tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
Bianca Solema (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498835 | bianca_solema@maybank-atrke.com
Laura Dy-Liacco (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498840 | laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com
Yeast Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): (65) 6432 1460 | yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): (66) 2658 6300 x 1400 | sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): (84) 844555888 × 8082 | chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): (84) 4 44 555 888 × 8087 | binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn