20181107-辉立证券-Dasin_Retail_Trust_7页_752kb
报告摘要
Dasin Retail Trust 3Q18 Results Summary
Core Content Overview
Dasin Retail Trust, a Singapore-based Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), reported its third-quarter 2018 (3Q18) results, highlighting a stable portfolio performance despite challenges in revenue and cost management. The report includes key financial metrics, valuation insights, and a recommendation from Phillip Securities Research (PSR) for the stock.
Key Financial Highlights (3Q18)
| Metric | 3Q18 | 3Q17 | YoY (%) | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Revenue | SGD 18,065 | SGD 18,246 | -1% | Event space revenue from Ocean Metro Mall decreased, and straight-lining rental affected results. |
| Net Property Income (NPI) | SGD 14,507 | SGD 15,491 | -6% | Higher operating expenses at Shiqi and Ocean Metro Mall. |
| Net Income | SGD 5,496 | SGD 3,873 | +42% | Expenditure of SGD 6.2 million in IPO costs in 3Q17 had a significant impact. |
| Distributable Profit (DPU) | SGD 5,316 | SGD 5,586 | -5% | Adjustments for IPO transaction costs in 3Q17. |
| DPU (Cents) | 1.81 | 2.23 | -19% | Larger unit base due to distribution waiver arrangement from FY17-FY21. |
Positive Aspects
- Robust Occupancy: Occupancy at Xiaolan Metro Mall remained strong at 97.6%, and positive rental reversions were recorded.
- Asset Enhancement Initiative (AEI): The AEI at Xiaolan Metro Mall is expected to be completed in 2018, with the introduction of renowned tenants such as Hai Di Lao.
- Inorganic Growth Opportunities: The current gearing level of 32.5% provides SGD 115 million of headroom (assuming 40% gearing) for potential growth through third-party acquisitions or the Trust’s own pipeline of 20 properties, 12 of which are already completed.
Negative Aspects
- Higher Cost of Funds: The average all-in cost of offshore debt increased by 30 basis points (bps) quarter-on-quarter. Only 40% of the debt is hedged, which exposes the Trust to interest rate risk.
- Rising Interest Rates: With the first tranche of debt expiring in January 2019, sustained rising interest rates could further increase finance costs.
- Decline in Property Valuation: The current gearing level was influenced by the decline in investment property valuation in 2Q17.
Valuation and Target Price
- Target Price: Maintained at SGD 0.95 (previously SGD 0.97), reflecting a yield of 8.5% for FY18 and a P/NAV of 0.58x.
- Valuation Method: Discounted Dividend Model (DDM) used, with a cost of equity of 8.12% and terminal growth assumed at 0%.
- Forward Multiples and Yields: Based on current market price, P/NAV is 0.58x, and the distribution yield is 8.5%.
Financial Performance (FY16–FY19e)
| Metric | FY16 | FY17 | FY18e | FY19e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Revenue | SGD 34 | SGD 58 | SGD 76 | SGD 81 |
| Net Property Income (NPI) | SGD 28 | SGD 47 | SGD 61 | SGD 65 |
| Net Income | SGD 29 | SGD 18 | SGD 30 | SGD 33 |
| Distributable Profit | - | - | SGD 21 | SGD 24 |
| P/NAV (x) | - | 0.56 | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| Distribution Yield (%) | - | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.9% |
| NPI Yield (%) | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% |
| Gearing (%) | 10.2% | 30.7% | 30.3% | 30.4% |
| ROA (%) | 2.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% |
| ROE (%) | 6.4% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% |
Cash Flow Analysis
| Metric | FY16 | FY17 | FY18e | FY19e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cashflow from Operating Activities | SGD 33 | SGD 53 | SGD 47 | SGD 55 |
| Net Cash from/used for ops | SGD 32 | SGD 47 | SGD 36 | SGD 44 |
| Cashflow from Investing Activities | SGD 1 | (SGD 520) | (SGD 17) | (SGD 1) |
| Cashflow from Financing Activities | (SGD 16) | SGD 476 | (SGD 36) | (SGD 42) |
| Net Change in Cash | SGD 17 | SGD 3 | (SGD 17) | SGD 1 |
Recommendation
- Rating: ACCUMULATE (Maintained)
- Target Price: SGD 0.95
- Total Return Forecast: 18.5%
- Reasoning: The target price was adjusted downward due to higher finance costs and changes in rental growth assumptions. The Trust remains a stable investment with a focus on maintaining occupancy and rental reversions, though rising interest rates may pose a risk to future profitability.
Qualitative Considerations
PSR does not solely base its recommendation on quantitative metrics. It also evaluates qualitative factors such as:
- Risk reward profile
- Market sentiment
- Recent share price appreciation
- Presence of stock price catalysts
- Speculative undertones
Key Contacts
Hong Kong Representatives
-
Benny WANG – Dealing Director
Tel: (852) 2277 6720
Email: bennywang@phillip.com.hk -
ZHANG Jing – Research Analyst (Transportation and Automobiles)
Tel: (86) 2151699400-103
Email: zhangjing@phillip.com.cn -
Terry LI – Research Analyst (TMT, Education, Finance)
Tel: (852) 2277 6527
Email: terryli@phillip.com.hk -
Eurus ZHOU – Research Analyst (Pharmaceutical and Consumer)
Tel: (852) 2277 6515
Email: euruszhou@phillip.com.hk -
Tracy KU – Research Analyst (Retail and Property)
Tel: (852) 2277 6516
Email: tracyku@phillip.com.hk
Sales Contacts
-
Aric AU – Manager, Corporate & Institutional Sales
Tel: (852) 2277 6783
Email: corporatesales@phillip.com.hk -
Yoshikazu SHIKITA – Manager, International Sales
Tel: (852) 2277 6624
Email: yshikita@phillip.com.hk
Disclaimer
- This report is prepared by Phillip Securities Research and is not intended to provide tailored investment advice.
- It is based on information from the company and is subject to change.
- Investors should seek financial advice before making any investment decisions.
- The report is not a solicitation to act as a securities broker or dealer in any jurisdiction where not legally permitted.
- Redistribution or disclosure of this report is prohibited without express written consent from Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited.
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