IEP-全球和平指数2021（英）-97页_3mb

2021 Global Peace Index Summary

Core Content

The Global Peace Index (GPI) 2021, published by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), ranks 163 countries and territories based on their level of peacefulness. It measures peace across three domains: Societal Safety and Security, Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict, and Militarisation, using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators. The report highlights the ongoing challenges to global peace, the economic consequences of violence, and the concept of Positive Peace as a framework for understanding and promoting peaceful societies.

Key Findings

• Global Peace Index (GPI) Trends:

  • The average level of global peacefulness deteriorated by 0.07% in 2021, marking the ninth decline in the last 13 years.
  • 87 countries improved, 73 deteriorated, and 3 showed no change.
  • The change in score was the smallest since 2011.
  • The MENA region (Middle East and North Africa) remained the least peaceful, but recorded the largest regional improvement.
  • Europe remained the most peaceful region, with 8 of the top 10 countries located there.

• Top and Bottom Countries:

  • Iceland retained its position as the most peaceful country since 2008.
  • Afghanistan remained the least peaceful country for the fourth consecutive year, followed by Yemen, Syria, South Sudan, and Iraq.
  • Ireland replaced Singapore in the top 10, moving up 3 places.

• Domains and Indicators:

  • The Ongoing Conflict domain improved for the first time since 2015, with 21 countries recording a decline in internal conflicts.
  • The Militarisation and Safety and Security domains deteriorated.
  • Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP increased for 105 countries, driven by the economic impact of the pandemic.
  • Terrorism impact improved, with a 6-year decline in terrorism-related deaths, though 90 countries saw increased terrorist activity.

• Economic Impact of Violence:

  • The economic impact of violence in 2020 was $14.96 trillion (PPP), equivalent to 11.6% of global GDP.
  • The economic cost of violence increased by 0.2% in 2020, mainly due to rising military expenditure.
  • Syria, South Sudan, and Afghanistan had the highest relative economic cost of violence, at 81.7%, 42.1%, and 40.3% of GDP, respectively.
  • Refugee and internally displaced person costs were $266.1 billion, more than three times the GDP losses from conflict.

• Impact of the Pandemic:

  • The pandemic had a mixed impact on peace, with short-term declines in some forms of violence but increased civil unrest.
  • Over 5,000 pandemic-related violent events were recorded between January 2020 and April 2021.
  • The long-term effects of the pandemic on peace are still unclear, but economic uncertainty and political instability are likely to contribute to future unrest.

• Perceptions of Risk and Safety:

  • Violence is cited as the biggest risk to daily safety in nearly a third of countries.
  • 60% of people globally are worried about sustaining serious harm from violent crime.
  • Namibia had the highest rate of violence experience, with 63% of the population affected.
  • Brazil had the highest fear of violence, with 83% of citizens very worried about violent crime.
  • Rwanda had the highest proportion of people feeling safer than five years ago.

• Positive Peace:

  • Positive Peace refers to the attitudes, institutions, and structures that create and sustain peaceful societies.
  • Countries with a Positive Peace deficit (higher peacefulness than socio-economic development supports) tend to experience increased violence.
  • 90% of countries with a Positive Peace deficit of 50 places or more in 2009 had substantial deteriorations in peace between 2009 and 2019.
  • The ten largest deteriorations in GPI ranking from 2009 to 2019 occurred in Libya, Nicaragua, Burkina Faso, Egypt, Syria, Bahrain, Mozambique, Cameroon, Tunisia, and Ukraine.
  • The eight pillars of Positive Peace include Low Levels of Corruption, Acceptance of the Rights of Others, Sound Business Environment, Well-Functioning Government, Good Relations with Neighbours, Free Flow of Information, Equitable Distribution of Resources, and High Levels of Human Capital.

Major Viewpoints

• Peace is not static, and the GPI shows that global peacefulness has declined over the past 15 years, with only four years of improvement.
• The pandemic did not significantly improve peace, despite initial expectations. It increased civil unrest and political instability, particularly in the United States.
• Positive Peace is a strong predictor of future peace and a crucial factor in sustaining peace.
• Economic costs of violence are substantial, with violence affecting 123 countries since 2008, and refugees and displaced persons being a major economic burden.
• Corruption is the only pillar strongly correlated with global peacefulness across all levels, highlighting its importance in maintaining peace.

Critical Information

• GPI Methodology: The index is based on 23 indicators, including military expenditure, conflict-related deaths, terrorism impact, and perceptions of safety.
• Positive Peace Deficit: A key concept indicating inconsistencies between peace levels and socio-economic development.
• Regional Trends: While Europe improved in Safety and Security, North America experienced the largest regional deterioration, primarily in the United States.
• Long-Term Trends: The number of conflicts has increased by 88% since 2010, and violence remains a significant economic and social burden.

Conclusion

The 2021 Global Peace Index underscores the complexity of measuring peace in a world marked by conflict, economic uncertainty, and rising tensions. While some regions and countries showed improvement, the overall trend is one of deterioration. The economic cost of violence remains high, and Positive Peace is highlighted as a key framework for building and sustaining peace. The report calls for a holistic, systemic approach to peacebuilding, emphasizing the importance of corruption reduction, strong institutions, and equitable resource distribution.