2018墨西哥和平指数（英文版）-8mb

2018 Mexico Peace Index Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Mexico Peace Index (MPI), developed by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), provides a comprehensive assessment of peacefulness in Mexico. It builds on the Global Peace Index framework and highlights key trends, policy opportunities, and the economic and social impacts of violence. The report underscores the need for a holistic and integrated approach to peacebuilding, emphasizing the importance of addressing both negative and positive peace factors.

Main Findings

2018 Mexico Peace Index Results

• Overall Peace Deterioration: Mexico's level of peace declined by 10.7% in 2017, marking its least peaceful year on record.
• Homicide Rate: The homicide rate reached 23.8 deaths per 100,000 people, surpassing the 2011 peak and rising by 25% year-on-year.
• Gun Violence: Gun violence increased for the second consecutive year, with 69% of all homicides in 2017 involving firearms.
• Firearm Crimes: The number of firearm-related crimes rose by 36% in 2017.
• Violent Crime: The violent crime rate increased by 15.2% compared to the previous year.
• Organized Crime Offenses: These increased by only 0.9%, indicating a minimal rise.
• State-Level Peace Trends: Only seven of the 32 states improved in peacefulness, while 25 deteriorated.
• Most Peaceful States: Yucatán was the most peaceful state, followed by Tlaxcala, Campeche, Coahuila, and Chiapas. Four of these states showed improvement.
• Least Peaceful States: Baja California Sur ranked as the least peaceful state for the first time in 2017, followed by Guerrero, Baja California, Colima, and Zacatecas. Three of these states are located on key trafficking routes.
• Gender Disparity: 87% of homicide victims were male, with 71% being adults. Men experience a homicide rate eight times higher than women.
• Institutional Capacity: Mexico's federal spending on domestic security and justice is only 60% of the OECD average.
• Detention Without Sentence: This was the only MPI indicator to improve, with a 35% decrease since 2014.

Economic Impact of Violence

• Total Economic Impact: In 2017, the economic impact of violence reached 4.72 trillion pesos (US$249 billion), equivalent to 21% of Mexico's GDP.
• Comparison to Other Sectors: The economic impact was eight times higher than public health investments and seven times higher than education investments.
• Per Capita Impact: The economic impact per person was 33,118 pesos, over four times the average monthly salary of a Mexican worker.
• Homicide Contribution: Homicide accounted for 46% of the total economic impact, or 2.18 trillion pesos, which is 10% of Mexico's GDP.
• Investment Gap: Mexico invests only 1% of its GDP in domestic security and justice, far below OECD averages.

Positive Peace in Mexico

• Positive Peace Pillars: Mexico shows weaknesses in three key pillars of Positive Peace—well-functioning government, low levels of corruption, and free flow of information. These are the only pillars to exhibit deterioration.
• Improving Pillars: Five out of eight Positive Peace Pillars showed improvement, including sound business environment, human capital, good relations with neighbors, equitable resource distribution, and acceptance of others' rights.
• Trust in Institutions: In 2017, only 18% of Mexicans reported high trust in public security institutions, the lowest since 2012.
• Corruption Perception: 57% of Mexicans perceived public security institutions as corrupt, with 68% perceiving judges as corrupt.
• Impunity Concerns: The percentage of citizens reporting impunity as their most worrisome issue nearly tripled from 7% in 2012 to 20% in 2017.

Key Insights

• System Dynamics: The report highlights the role of feedback loops in sustaining violence. Trust and violence are interdependent, with each influencing the other.
• Coded Norms: Cultural, legal, and policy norms contribute to the 'homeostasis' of the system, maintaining levels of corruption and impunity.
• Tipping Points: Changes in the system can be slow initially but then occur rapidly, emphasizing the need to maintain consistent peace and security efforts.
• Community Cooperation: Trust and cooperation between citizens and institutions are crucial for reducing crime and violence. Conversely, corruption and impunity undermine these efforts.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Reduce corruption and impunity.
  • Build institutional capacity with transparency and accountability.
  • Protect youth and public spaces.
  • Foster trust through demonstrated progress.
  • Address specific dynamics behind gun violence, illicit trade, extortion, and different forms of homicide.
  • Emphasize reform processes.

Conclusion

The 2018 Mexico Peace Index reveals a significant decline in peacefulness, driven by rising violence and institutional weaknesses. The report calls for a comprehensive and integrated approach to peacebuilding that includes both top-down and bottom-up strategies. It emphasizes the importance of community engagement, institutional reform, and transparency in achieving lasting peace. The economic and social costs of violence are substantial, and addressing them requires sustained investment and policy reform.