2017墨西哥和平指数（英文版）_118页_7mb

2017 Mexico Peace Index Summary

Core Content

The 2017 Mexico Peace Index (MPI), produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), provides a comprehensive assessment of peacefulness in Mexico, based on the Global Peace Index methodology. It measures negative peace — the absence of violence or fear of violence — and includes analysis of economic impacts and structural reforms.

Main Findings

• Overall Peacefulness: Mexico's peacefulness declined by 4.3% in 2016, marking the first deterioration since the recovery from the drug war began in 2012.
• Homicide Rate: The intentional homicide rate increased by 18.4%, reaching 16.7 per 100,000 people, with 61% of deaths involving firearms.
• Violent Crime: The violent crime rate continued to decline for the fifth consecutive year, dropping by 9.2%.
• Detention Without a Sentence: The nationwide score improved by 3.2%, likely due to judicial reforms.
• Regional Trends: The northern region along the U.S. border remains the least peaceful, while violence is increasing along the Pacific coast, especially in Baja California Sur, Colima, and Guerrero.
• State Rankings:
  • Most Peaceful: Yucatán, Nayarit, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, and Coahuila.
  • Least Peaceful: Guerrero (4th year), Colima, Sinaloa, Baja California, and Baja California Sur.
• Economic Impact: The economic cost of violence in 2016 was 3.07 trillion pesos, equivalent to 17.6% of GDP or 25,130 pesos per person.
• Improvements in Peacefulness: 21 out of 32 states recorded a decline in peacefulness, while 11 states improved. Quintana Roo had the largest improvement in both overall score and homicide rate, while Colima showed the largest deterioration, with its homicide rate tripling since 2011.

Key Trends

• Recovery from Drug War: Mexico was 14% more peaceful in 2016 than in 2011, with the homicide rate down by 16% and violent crime reaching a 14-year low.
• Underreporting: In 2015, 93.7% of crimes were not recorded in official statistics due to underreporting, with IEP using ENVIPE data to adjust for this.
• Data Quality: Official crime data remains inconsistent and poorly verified, with only 8 out of 37 data points from the Bogota protocol included in the national dataset.

Positive Peace

• Definition: Positive peace refers to the attitudes, institutions, and structures that create and sustain peaceful societies.
• Improvements: Progress was seen in sound business environment and high levels of human capital.
  • Cost of Starting a Business: Fell by 14% from 2011 to 2016.
  • High School Enrollment: Increased by 8 percentage points.
• Challenges:
  • Impunity: 91% of crimes go unpunished, with 76 media professionals murdered in 2016 due to violence against journalists.
  • Corruption: 13% more citizens perceived lower levels of corruption in law enforcement and justice entities in 2016 compared to 2011, but levels are still higher than the global average.
  • Good Relations with Neighbors: Deteriorated, with citizens' perceptions of safety dropping from 60% in 2011 to 54% in 2016.

Challenges & Opportunities for Peacebuilding

• Impunity: A major challenge, with 9% of crimes punished on average.
• Policing: Traffic and municipal police are seen as the most corrupt and distrusted.
• Local Governments: Still have the most room for improvement, with low trust and high corruption in local forces.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Professional Development: Police numbers must be matched with professional training.
  • Salaries: Must be adequate to compensate for the high risks and larger payouts from organized crime.
  • Positive Peace Framework: Operationalizing it at the local level can improve peacefulness and reduce homicides.

Economic Value of Peace

• Total Economic Impact of Violence: 3.07 trillion pesos in 2016, equivalent to 18% of GDP.
• Per Capita Impact: 25,130 pesos, or more than one month's income for the average worker.
• Business Concerns: Insecurity and crime are the most pressing concerns for businesses, surpassing issues like taxation and corruption.
• Investment in Justice System: Increased by 41% from 2011 to 2016, but still below global average.
• Justice Officials: 3.5 per 100,000 people, which is four times lower than the global average.

Methodology

• The MPI is based on the Global Peace Index and includes five indicators:
  • Homicide
  • Weapons Crime
  • Violent Crime
  • Detention Without a Sentence
  • Organized Crime
• Scoring: Each indicator is scored from 1 (most peaceful) to 5 (least peaceful).
• Underreporting Adjustments: Applied to violent crime and organized crime data.
• Data Sources:
  • Homicide: Secretariado Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública (SESNSP)
  • Weapons Crime, Violent Crime: SESNSP
  • Detention Without a Sentence: Secretaría de Seguridad Pública (2006–2012) and Comisión Nacional de Seguridad (CNS) (2013–2016)
• Changes in 2017: Two indicators were removed: police funding and justice system efficiency, due to inconsistent data.

Key Takeaways

• The MPI highlights the need for continued judicial reform and improved accountability.
• Local governments are critical in peacebuilding, but still lag in trust and anti-corruption efforts.
• Economic impact of violence is significant, with businesses identifying insecurity as their main concern.
• Positive Peace is improving, but inequalities persist, especially in homicide and weapons crime.