2018全球和平指数（英文版）-5mb

Global Peace Index 2018 Summary

Core Content

The Global Peace Index (GPI) 2018 is the twelfth edition of the world's leading measure of peacefulness, produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP). It ranks 163 independent states and territories based on 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators, covering three domains: Societal Safety and Security, Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict, and Militarisation. The report highlights trends in peace, its economic value, and the concept of Positive Peace, which refers to the attitudes, institutions, and structures that create and sustain peaceful societies.

Main Findings

• The global level of peace deteriorated by 0.27% in 2017, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline.
• 92 countries saw a decline in peacefulness, while 71 improved.
• Iceland remains the most peaceful country, and Syria the least peaceful, for the past five years respectively.
• Afghanistan, South Sudan, Iraq, and Somalia are the other four least peaceful countries.
• The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, the least peaceful region, saw a third improvement in peacefulness in the last eleven years, but remains the most unstable.
• Qatar experienced the largest deterioration in the GPI, dropping 26 places due to political and economic boycotts.
• South Asia recorded the largest regional improvement, with Bhutan, Sri Lanka, India, and Nepal showing progress.
• Sub-Saharan Africa had four of the five largest improvements, despite a slight overall decline.

Key Trends

• Over the past decade (2008–2018), global peacefulness has deteriorated by 2.38%, with 85 countries recording declines and 75 improvements.
• The gap between the least and most peaceful countries has continued to widen.
• Ongoing Conflict and Safety and Security domains have deteriorated, while Militarisation has improved by 3.2% over the last decade.
• Terrorism impact has been the largest contributor to the decline in peace, with 62% of countries experiencing increased terrorist activity.
• Refugee numbers have risen to almost 1% of the global population in 2017, 12 times higher than in 1951.

Economic Impact of Violence

• The economic impact of violence in 2017 was $14.76 trillion in PPP terms, or 12.4% of global GDP.
• This impact has increased by 16% since 2012, linked to the Syrian war and violence after the Arab Spring.
• Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq had the highest economic costs of violence, at 68%, 63%, and 51% of GDP respectively.
• Highly peaceful countries have three times higher per capita GDP growth over the last 70 years compared to less peaceful ones.
• Countries that improved in peace saw seven times higher GDP growth over the last decade than those that deteriorated.
• If the least peaceful countries achieved the same GDP growth as highly peaceful ones, the global economy could be $13.87 trillion larger.

Positive Peace

• Positive Peace refers to the attitudes, institutions, and structures that support peacefulness.
• It is a leading indicator of future peacefulness, with large deteriorations in Positive Peace statistically linked to later declines in peace.
• Positive Peace has improved by 1.85% since 2005, but stagnated since 2013.
• Acceptance of the Rights of Others and Low Levels of Corruption are key Positive Peace Pillars that, when deteriorating, often trigger declines in peacefulness.
• Non-OECD countries that improved in Positive Peace had 1.45% higher GDP growth between 2005 and 2016.
• Positive Peace is also linked to stronger macroeconomic performance, including lower interest rates, stable inflation, and higher foreign direct investment.

Conclusion

The 2018 GPI highlights a world where peace is in decline, with tensions, conflicts, and crises from the past decade remaining unresolved. While militarisation has improved, the economic cost of violence has risen significantly, affecting global GDP and individual well-being. The report underscores the importance of Positive Peace in sustaining and promoting peaceful societies, suggesting that systemic changes in attitudes and institutions are necessary to reverse the trend of global peacefulness decline.