2018墨西哥和平指数（英文版）_89页_7mb

2018 Mexico Peace Index Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Mexico Peace Index (MPI), produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), provides a comprehensive assessment of peacefulness in Mexico. It is based on the Global Peace Index (GPI), which has been tracking global peacefulness since 2007. This report highlights key trends, patterns, and drivers of peace, while also emphasizing the economic and social costs of violence and the importance of a holistic approach to peacebuilding.

Main Findings

1. Violence Trends in Mexico

• 2017 was the most violent year on record, with a 10.7% decline in peacefulness compared to 2016.
• The homicide rate reached 23.8 per 100,000 people, surpassing the 2011 peak and exceeding 29,000 victims.
• Gun violence increased by 36% in 2017, with 69% of homicides committed with firearms.
• Violent crime rose by 15.2%, including robbery, assault, and sexual assault.
• Organized crime-related offenses (kidnapping, extortion, narcotics crimes) increased by only 0.9%, indicating limited impact from these crimes.
• Domestic violence rose by 32% over three years, contributing to the overall increase in lawlessness.

2. State-Level Analysis

• Only seven of 32 states improved in peacefulness, while 25 deteriorated.
• Yucatán was the most peaceful state in 2017, followed by Tlaxcala, Campeche, Coahuila, and Chiapas.
• Baja California Sur became the least peaceful state for the first time in 2017, followed by Guerrero, Baja California, Colima, and Zacatecas.
• The gap between the most and least peaceful states continued to widen, highlighting growing inequality in peace across the country.

3. Economic Impact of Violence

• The economic impact of violence in 2017 was 4.72 trillion pesos (US$249 billion), equivalent to 21% of Mexico's GDP.
• This impact was eight times higher than public health investments and seven times higher than education investments.
• Homicide accounted for 46% of the total economic impact, or 2.18 trillion pesos, representing 10% of the country's GDP.
• A 1% decline in the economic impact of violence would be equivalent to the federal government's investment in science, technology, and innovation.
• The per capita economic impact of violence was 33,118 pesos, more than four times the average monthly salary of a Mexican worker.

4. Positive Peace in Mexico

• Positive Peace refers to the attitudes, institutions, and structures that support peace, such as well-functioning government, low corruption, and free flow of information.
• Mexico shows weaknesses in three key Pillars of Positive Peace: well-functioning government, low levels of corruption, and free flow of information, all of which have shown deteriorating trends.
• Five out of eight Pillars of Positive Peace have been improving: sound business environment, human capital, good neighbor relations, equitable resource distribution, and acceptance of others' rights.
• Trust in public security institutions dropped to 18% in 2017, the lowest since 2012.
• Perception of corruption among Mexicans increased to 57%, with 68% perceiving judges as corrupt.
• Impunity became the most worrisome issue for 20% of Mexicans in 2017, up from 7% in 2012.

5. System Dynamics and Feedback Loops

• Violence undermines trust, and deterioration in trust can contribute to violence, creating a feedback loop.
• The systemic nature of violence is maintained by coded norms, which are cultural, legal, and policy-driven responses that sustain the status quo.
• Attractors in the Mexican system, such as corruption and impunity, entrench violence and limit the effectiveness of reform efforts.
• The tipping point concept suggests that sustained efforts are necessary to break the cycle of violence, even if progress appears slow.

6. Policy Implications

• A holistic and integrated approach to public security and peacebuilding is essential.
• Reducing corruption and impunity, building institutional capacity, protecting youth, ensuring public safety, building trust, and addressing the dynamics of specific crimes are critical.
• Community cooperation is a key factor in reducing crime and violence, as it helps build a culture of lawfulness.
• Reform efforts must be adequately funded and resourced, with a focus on professionalism, transparency, and accountability.
• The 2018 elections are a critical opportunity for policymakers to demonstrate progress in peace and security.

Key Recommendations

• Invest in public security and judicial systems to match OECD averages.
• Address the root causes of violence, including corruption, impunity, and weak rule of law.
• Promote community engagement and cooperation to build trust and reduce crime.
• Implement evidence-based policies informed by data and analysis.
• Support reform processes that include both top-down institutional changes and bottom-up community initiatives.

Conclusion

The 2018 Mexico Peace Index underscores the urgent need for comprehensive peacebuilding strategies that address both the symptoms and causes of violence. It highlights the economic and social costs of violence and the importance of Positive Peace in creating a more stable and secure society. The report also emphasizes the political significance of peace and security policies, particularly in the context of the 2018 elections, and the need for sustained efforts to break the cycle of violence.