世界发展银行-Commodity-Markets-Outlook,-April-2021---Causes-and-Consequences-of-Metal-Price-Shocks_97页_2mb

Commodity Markets Outlook Summary: Causes and Consequences of Metal Price Shocks

Core Content

This report, published by the World Bank in April 2021, provides an overview of global commodity market developments and outlooks, with a special focus on the causes and consequences of metal price shocks. It covers energy, agriculture, fertilizers, metals, and precious metals, offering price forecasts up to 2035 and historical data. The report also discusses the economic implications of commodity price fluctuations for emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).

Main Points

• Commodity Price Recovery: In the first quarter of 2021, nearly all commodity prices rose, with four-fifths of commodities exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Metal prices, especially copper, saw significant increases.
• Energy Outlook: Oil prices are expected to average $56/bbl in 2021 and rise to $60/bbl in 2022. This is a substantial upward revision from the October 2020 report. The recovery has been driven by OPEC+ production cuts and improving economic growth, though risks remain from potential demand shocks or a sudden increase in U.S. shale production.
• Metal Outlook: Metal prices are forecast to rise by nearly 30% in 2021, followed by a modest decline in 2022. The increase is due to strong demand and supply disruptions in key producing countries. Metal price shocks are more frequent but less severe than oil price shocks, and they have asymmetric impacts on EMDEs, causing larger and longer-lasting output declines than temporary gains.
• Agricultural Outlook: Agricultural prices are expected to rise by nearly 14% in 2021, driven by strong demand from China and supply shortfalls in South America and the U.S. However, most global food markets remain well-supplied, and prices are expected to stabilize in 2022.
• Data and Forecasting: The report includes historical price data and forecasts for 46 commodities, with a focus on the non-energy price index, which excludes precious metals. The data cutoff was April 16, 2021, and the report is published twice a year.

Key Information

• Metal Price Shocks: Metal price shocks are primarily driven by demand factors, such as global recessions and recoveries, unlike oil, which is influenced by both supply and demand, or agriculture, which is mainly supply-driven.
• Impact on EMDEs: Metal exporters are more vulnerable to price shocks than oil exporters. Price declines can lead to significant output losses, while price increases offer only temporary benefits. This highlights the need for metal exporters to save windfalls to cushion against future declines.
• Commodity Concentration: Metal ore reserves and production are highly concentrated in a few countries, making these markets less diversified than oil markets. This concentration increases the risk of price volatility.
• Economic Importance: Base metals are critical for EMDEs, particularly in the context of the energy transition, which is expected to increase demand for metals in renewable energy and electric vehicles.
• Risks to Outlook: The main risks to the price forecasts include the evolution of the pandemic, vaccine rollout, and potential economic downturns. For metals, the risk of a rapid withdrawal of stimulus by China and increased U.S. shale production could affect price trends.

Structure and Appendices

• Table of Contents: Includes sections on acknowledgments, executive summary, special focus, and commodity market developments and outlook.
• Appendices:
  • Appendix A: Historical commodity prices and price forecasts
  • Appendix B: Supply-Demand balances
  • Appendix C: Description of price and technical notes

Figures

• Figure 1: Commodity market developments, showing the recovery of prices to pre-pandemic levels.
• Figure SF.1: Oil and metals prices, highlighting their synchronized movements during global recessions and recoveries.
• Figure SF.2: The importance of energy and metals, illustrating their share in global commodity consumption and exports.
• Figure SF.3: Market concentration of metal reserves, production, and consumption.
• Figure SF.4: China's impact on metal markets.
• Figure SF.5: Metal price shocks.
• Figure SF.6: Metal price shocks to EMDE metal exporters and importers.
• Figure SF.7: Copper price shocks to EMDE copper exporters and importers.
• Figure 2: Oil market developments.
• Figure 3: Oil supply developments.
• Figure 4: Oil market outlook.
• Figure 5: Natural gas and coal.
• Figure 6: Agricultural price developments.
• Figure 7: Supply conditions for grains and edible oils.
• Figure 8: Risks to outlook.
• Figure 9: Beverage commodity market developments.
• Figure 10: Agricultural raw materials market developments.
• Figure 11: Fertilizer market developments.
• Figure 12: Metals and minerals market developments.
• Figure 13: Precious metals market developments.

Tables

• Table 1: Nominal price indexes and forecast revisions, showing changes in prices and forecasts for different commodity groups.
• Annex Table SF: Summary of empirical research on supercycles, discussing historical price trends and their drivers.

Acknowledgments

The report was authored by various World Bank staff members, including John Baffes, Peter Nagle, and Franziska Ohnsorge, and supported by external contributions and research assistance. It is part of the World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook, published twice a year in April and October.

References

• The report is based on data from sources such as the USDA, World Bank, World Bureau of Metal Statistics, and BP Statistical Review.
• The World Bank provides translations and dissemination materials, with the caveat that they are not official translations.