20140722-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_2mb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 22 July 2014
Core Content
The document provides an overview of the oil and gas market in Asia and globally, highlighting price movements, news updates, and analyst reports on various companies. It also includes a valuation comparison table for oil and gas companies in the region and major international players.
Market Movements
- Crude Oil (Brent): Closed at USD107.68, showing a 0.4% increase in the last day, 3.6% in the last week, and -5.7% in the last month.
- Crude Oil (WTI): Closed at USD104.59, with a 1.4% gain in the last day, 3.6% in the last week, and -2.1% in the last month.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Closed at USD103.90, with a -0.9% change in the last day, -1.4% in the last week, and -6.6% in the last month.
- China Daqing Spot: Closed at USD105.29, with a -1.0% change in the last day, 0.3% in the last week, and -7.1% in the last month.
- NYMEX Henry Hub: Closed at USD3.85, with a -2.6% drop in the last day, -7.2% in the last week, and -15.4% in the last month.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Closed at USD10.85, with a -4.8% change in the last month.
- Gold: Closed at USD1,312.49, with a 0.1% gain in the last day, 0.4% in the last week, and -0.2% in the last month.
- USD-CNY: Closed at 6.21, with a 0.0% change in the last day, 0.1% in the last week, and -0.3% in the last month.
- DJI: Closed at 17,051.73, with a -0.3% drop in the last day, 0.0% in the last week, and 0.6% in the last month.
- S&P 500: Closed at 1,973.63, with a -0.2% drop in the last day, -0.2% in the last week, and 0.5% in the last month.
News Highlights
China
- Gasoline and Diesel Price Cut: The Chinese government lowered gasoline and diesel prices by CNY245 and CNY235 per tonne effective 22 July 2014.
- Diesel Exports: China's June net diesel exports reached a four-year high of 440,200 tonnes.
- Economic Impact: Analysts expect China to maintain diesel exports between 300,000-400,000 tonnes per month due to domestic production exceeding demand.
Malaysia
- TAS Offshore: TAS Offshore is expected to score more contracts in Indonesia for its offshore supply vessels.
- SembMarine Contract: SembCorp Marine secured a USD483m contract with Saipem for the Kaombo project.
India
- Reliance Profits: Reliance Industries reported 1Q14 profits of INR59.6m, driven by E&P profits of INR31.8m, up 27.3% YoY.
- ONGC Gas Leak: ONGC evacuated staff due to a gas leak at the Mumbai High North field.
Analyst Reports
China Oil & Gas
- KE Rating: NEUTRAL
- Feedback: Most believe Chinese oil & gas should be "Market-weight." Sinopec is the core holding among Asia-focused investors, but global and EM investors are not involved in Sinopec.
- Recommendation: Given high ownership and valuations, recommend switching from Sinopec to PetroChina.
Cairn India
- KE Rating: BUY
- Target Price: INR400
- Reason: Exploration upside is key for re-rating. The stock trades at an undemanding PER of 5x FY15F and P/B of 1x with a dividend yield of 4%. Increase in proven reserves and exploration in Rajasthan, Sri Lanka, and Africa is a catalyst.
Ezion Holdings
- KE Rating: BUY
- Target Price: SGD2.70
- Reason: Secures two new contracts worth USD122.6m and USD146m. Confident in lifeboat business and expect more contract wins.
Nam Cheong Ltd
- KE Rating: BUY
- Target Price: SGD0.55
- Reason: EPS raised by 23-26% over FY15E-16E due to positive vessel sales and contract win outlook. Will benefit disproportionately from a recovering OSV demand cycle supported by the Malaysian oil and gas market.
Valuation Comparison
Asia Oil & Gas
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (21-Jul) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | P/E (2014E) | P/E (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE (%) | P/B (X) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Buy | 10.16 | 11.50 | 223.2 | 83.0 | 11.1 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 11.3 | 1.2 | 4.0 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 7.22 | 6.85 | 95.7 | 73.1 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 11.7 | 1.1 | 4.1 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Hold | 13.46 | 14.34 | 77.5 | 83.0 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 15.1 | 1.3 | 4.0 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 406.70 | NR | 57.7 | 51.3 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 18.0 | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 997.65 | NR | 53.5 | 72.0 | 12.4 | 11.0 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 12.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Buy | 345.35 | 443.00 | 10.9 | 16.6 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 23.6 | 4.8 | 4.1 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 581.40 | NR | 7.0 | 18.9 | 14.3 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 14.4 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 389.60 | NR | 2.2 | 13.5 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 9.6 | 0.9 | 3.0 |
Asian Oil Service
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (21-Jul) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | P/E (2014E) | P/E (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE (%) | P/B (X) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Oilfield Services | 3337 HK | NR | 4.57 | NR | 1.3 | 6.8 | 18.9 | 14.7 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 17.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| China Oilfield Services-H | 2883 HK | NR | 19.38 | NR | 12.5 | 17.0 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 17.5 | 1.6 | 2.9 |
| Chu Kong Petroleum | 1938 HK | NR | 2.64 | NR | 0.3 | 0.8 | 23.4 | 11.0 | 24.4 | 15.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Hilong Holding | 1623 HK | NR | 4.00 | NR | 0.9 | 3.0 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 16.6 | 1.7 | 2.6 |
| Honghua Group | 196 HK | NR | 1.90 | NR | 0.8 | 1.9 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 12.5 | 0.9 | 3.6 |
| Sinopec Engineering-H | 2386 HK | NR | 8.63 | NR | 4.9 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 18.4 | 1.3 | 4.6 |
| SPT Energy | 1251 HK | NR | 3.82 | NR | 0.8 | 3.6 | 13.3 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 18.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
Key Information
- Price Trends: WTI gained 1.4%, while Henry Hub price dropped by 2.6%.
- Exports: China's diesel exports hit a four-year high in June.
- Investor Sentiment: Sinopec is a core holding for Asia-focused investors, but global and EM investors are not involved.
- Valuation: Asian oil and gas companies are generally undervalued, with some showing strong growth potential.
- Contracts and Profits: Several companies secured new contracts and reported improved profits, particularly in the upstream sector.
- Dividend Yields: Some companies offer attractive dividend yields, such as Sinopec and PetroChina.
- Market Outlook: Positive outlook for companies like Cairn India, Ezion Holdings, and Nam Cheong Ltd due to exploration and contract wins.
Summary
The document outlines the current state of the regional oil and gas market, with a focus on price movements, recent news, and analyst recommendations. It highlights that WTI has gained while Henry Hub has declined, and China has lowered its gasoline and diesel prices. Major news includes increased diesel exports from China, new contracts for Malaysian and Indian companies, and profit growth for Reliance Industries. Analysts recommend switching from Sinopec to PetroChina due to valuation concerns, and maintain a BUY rating for Cairn India, Ezion Holdings, and Nam Cheong Ltd due to their potential for growth and exploration upside. The valuation comparison tables provide insights into the financial performance and market positions of various companies in the region and globally.
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