20150721-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_11页_1mb

报告摘要

Morning Express Summary

Core Content

This document provides an equity research summary from China Merchants Securities (HK) Co., Ltd., covering both company-specific analysis and broader market outlooks for the third week of July 2015. It includes insights on KWG Property, A-shares, and various sectors in the Hong Kong stock market, as well as an analysis of emerging market impacts due to China's economic slowdown.

Main Points

KWG Property (1813 HK)

Current Valuation: Trading at HK$6.36, it is currently undervalued with a 60% discount to NAV and a 5.0x FY15 P/E.
Expected Performance:
- Interim results are expected in late August, with the firm likely to maintain stable GPM and flat earnings.
- Contracted sales are anticipated to rise strongly from September onwards due to more new launches and concentrated exposure in major cities.
Strategic Move: Acquired a 30% stake in the Foshan Oriental Bund JV project from SHKP (16 HK), increasing its stake to 50%.
Project Details:
- Total GFA: 2.8 million sqm.
- Average land cost: RMB3,100 psm.
- ASP for high-rise residential apartments: RMB9,000 psm.
- Estimated GPM for the first phase: 25-30%.
Earnings Forecast:
- 1H15E core net profit is estimated at RMB1.15bn, which is 39% of the full-year forecast.
- Revised FY15/16 earnings: 0% / +2%.
Recommendation: Maintain BUY rating with a target price of HK$7.8.

Emerging Market Impact

Economic Slowdown in China: May drag down other emerging market economies through:
1. Reduced Import Demand: As one of the major consumers of global commodities, China's slowdown could reduce import demand, impacting countries reliant on commodity exports.
2. Investor Risk Appetite: Economic moderation and financial volatility in China may lead to capital outflows from emerging markets to developed economies.
Affected Countries:
- Philippines, Brazil, South Africa: More significantly impacted due to close trade ties with China.
- Indonesia, Turkey: More vulnerable due to foreign currency-dominated debts.
- India: May benefit due to lower risk exposure to commodity exports and competition with China.
Long-Term Outlook: With the implementation of China's "Go Out Policy" (e.g., Belt and Road Initiative), emerging markets may benefit from increased Chinese ODIs.

Market Overview

Hong Kong Indices

Index	Close	1-daychg	%chg
Hang Seng Index	25404.81	-10.46	-0.04
Hang Seng Finance Index	35895.92	-56.11	-0.16
Hang Seng Utilities Index	53328.88	+154.47	+0.29
Hang Seng Property Index	34973.78	-104.49	-0.3
Hang Seng Industrial Index	14442.53	+19.65	+0.14
HSCEI	11773.92	-76.22	-0.64
CSI 300	4160.61	+9.11	+0.22
Shanghai Composite Index	3992.11	+34.76	+0.88
TWSE	8975.0	-70.98	-0.78

Global Commodities and Currencies

Commodity/Currency	Last Price	Change	% Change
Brent Oil	56.51	-0.59	-1.03
COMEX Gold	1095.2	-36.7	-3.24
COMEX Copper	247.35	-2.25	-0.9
LME Aluminum	1686.0	-11.0	-0.65
LME Copper	5460.0	-20.0	-0.37
BDI	1067.0	+19.0	+1.81
USD/RMB	6.21	+0.0	+0.0
USD/HKD	7.75	0.0	0.0
EUR/USD	1.08	+0.0	+0.01
1Y RMB NDF	6.26	-0.0	-0.01
3M Libor	0.29	+0.0	+1.67
3M Shibor	3.15	-0.0	-0.05
10Y US T-Note Yield	2.34	-0.02	-0.85

Research Coverage Highlights

Property Sector

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (Jul 20)	12-month TP	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	EPS (2014)	EPS (2015E)	EPS (2016E)	P/E (2014)	P/E (2015E)	P/E (2016E)
KWG Property	1813 HK	BUY	HK$6.36	HK$7.8	23%	2,392	1.10	1.27	1.47	5.8	5.0	4.3
China Resources Land	1109 HK	BUY	HK$23.25	HK$27.7	19%	17,489	2.16	2.80	3.05	10.8	8.3	7.6
Agile Property	3383 HK	BUY	HK$4.86	HK$7.1	46%	2,456	1.42	1.35	1.38	3.4	3.6	3.5
Greentown China	3900 HK	BUY	HK$8.95	HK$12.0	34%	2,492	1.21	1.74	1.83	7.4	5.1	4.9
China Overseas Land	688 HK	BUY	HK$26.95	HK$33.5	24%	28,417	2.92	3.54	4.19	9.2	7.6	6.4
Shimao Property	813 HK	BUY	HK$14.68	HK$21.2	44%	6,576	2.63	2.86	3.24	5.6	5.1	4.5
CIFI Holdings	884 HK	BUY	HK$1.83	HK$2.6	42%	1,566	0.40	0.40	0.51	4.6	4.6	3.6
China Merchants Land	978 HK	BUY	HK$1.67	HK$2.1	26%	1,057	0.10	0.16	0.31	13.2	8.4	4.4

Technology, Media & Telecom

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (Jul 20)	12-month TP	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	EPS (2014)	EPS (2015E)	EPS (2016E)	P/E (2014)	P/E (2015E)	P/E (2016E)
China Telecom	728 HK	BUY	HK$4.43	HK$5.4	-3%	7,931	0.22	0.25	0.29	16.0	14.2	12.3
China Unicom	762 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$10.92	HK$12.6	-15%	33,507	0.57	0.61	0.79	15.2	14.3	11.2
China Mobile	941 HK	BUY	HK$98.2	HK$105.0	-7%	258,163	5.34	5.89	6.35	14.6	13.3	12.5
Wisdom	1661 HK	BUY	HK$4.74	HK$9.7	105%	984	0.17	0.20	0.23	22.1	19.0	16.6
Kingdee	268 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$4.26	HK$1.4	-67%	1,401	0.08	0.10	0.02	42.2	34.1	N.A.
Chinasoft	354 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$3.68	HK$2.0	-46%	882	0.10	0.13	0.16	29.2	22.7	18.6
Kingsoft	3888 HK	BUY	HK$22.75	HK$34.0	49%	3,466	0.63	0.48	0.23	28.6	37.9	15.8
Boyaa Interactive	434 HK	BUY	HK$4.75	HK$11.7	146%	468	0.38	0.49	0.62	9.9	7.8	6.2

Oil and Gas

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (Jul 20)	12-month TP	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	EPS (2014)	EPS (2015E)	EPS (2016E)	P/E (2014)	P/E (2015E)	P/E (2016E)
Sinopec Oilfield Service	1033 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$2.59	HK$3.4	31%	5,948	0.19	0.10	0.15	17.2	32.6	21.7
China Oilfield Services	2883 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$10.38	HK$11.9	15%	6,390	1.57	0.62	0.69	5.2	13.4	12.2
Petrochina	857 HK	BUY	HK$7.97	HK$11.0	38%	188,169	0.59	0.36	0.46	10.7	17.7	14.0
CNOOC	883 HK	BUY	HK$10.06	HK$13.0	29%	57,940	1.35	0.73	1.04	5.9	11.0	7.8

Banking Sector

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (Jul 20)	12-month TP	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	EPS (2014)	EPS (2015E)	EPS (2016E)	P/E (2014)	P/E (2015E)	P/E (2016E)
ABC	1288 HK	BUY	HK$3.67	HK$4.76	30%	153,767	0.55	0.55	0.56	5.3	5.3	5.3
ICBC	1398 HK	BUY	HK$5.67	HK$7.51	32%	260,686	0.78	0.78	0.80	5.8	5.8	5.7
Minsheng	1988 HK	SELL	HK$9.14	HK$8.1	-11%	40,360	1.31	1.30	1.37	5.5	5.6	5.4
Shengjing Bank	2066 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$8.85	HK$8.65	-2%	6,618	1.25	1.05	1.23	5.6	6.8	5.8
BOC	3988 HK	BUY	HK$4.46	HK$5.98	34%	168,180	0.61	0.59	0.60	5.8	6.1	6.0
China Construction Bank	939 HK	BUY	HK$6.52	HK$8.47	30%	210,279	0.91	0.92	0.93	5.7	5.7	5.7
CITIC Bank	998 HK	SELL	HK$5.89	HK$5.0	-15%	35,549	0.87	0.85	0.83	5.4	5.6	5.7

Key Takeaways

KWG Property is expected to benefit from new launches and stable GPM, with a BUY rating and a target price of HK$7.8.
China's economic slowdown is likely to impact other emerging markets through reduced import demand and capital outflows.
Emerging market indices show mixed performance, with some sectors like utilities showing positive trends.
The document emphasizes the importance of consumption and emerging industries in the transformation of the Chinese economy.
Capital inflows into Asian emerging markets are increasing, which helps stabilize the RMB exchange rate.

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