20150721-大华银行-Regional_Morning_Notes_25页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 21 July 2015

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of regional economic and sector updates for China, Malaysia, and Singapore, focusing on market trends, investment recommendations, and key risks. It includes insights from a marketing trip in Europe and analysis from various industry conferences.

China: Economic and Sector Analysis

Key Economic Insights

Cautious Attitude: Investors remain cautious about China's economic growth and reform progress, citing concerns over:
- Slower GDP growth and slow reform implementation.
- Risk of a debt bubble.
- Government intervention in the A-share market and its impact on market dynamics.
Economic Stabilisation: Expected in the second half of 2015 and 2016, driven by monetary easing and infrastructure investment.
GDP Growth Projections:
- 2015: 7%
- 2016: 7.1%
Monetary Policy Outlook: Potential for 25bp rate cuts in 2H15 and 50bp RRR reduction.

Automobile Sector

Market Sentiment: Investors are cautious due to weakening sales momentum and margin pressures.
Sales Trends:
- Passenger vehicle (PV) sales growth dropped from 9% yoy in 1Q15 to -3% in June 2015.
- Expected PV sales to slow further to -5% in 2015.
Positive Segments:
- Entry-level luxury and SUV segments showed strong growth (34% and 41% yoy in June 2015).
Top Picks:
- Geely and GWM are recommended due to their strong product lineups and niche positions.
Risk Factors:
- Macroeconomic risks such as credit tightening and potential impact on car sales.
- Concerns over government intervention in the A-share market, which may delay reforms and distort sentiment.

Malaysia: Oil & Gas Sector Update

Storage Market Outlook

Current Situation: Storage terminals in Malaysia and Singapore are fully utilised due to crude surplus.
Capacity Expansion:
- By 2020, Malaysia's storage capacity is expected to increase to 10m cbm.
- Singapore and Indonesia are also expanding capacity, but Singapore faces land scarcity.
Valuation and Investment:
- Dialog and MISC are trading at sector premiums, reflecting exposure to storage terminals.
- MARKET WEIGHT is maintained on the defensive storage space.
- Both Dialog and MISC are trading in line with the sector's M&A multiples (9–26x EV/EBITDA).

Terminal Details

Dialog Terminals:
- Kertih: 0.4m cbm
- Tanjung Langsat: Dedicated to Trafigura
- Pengerang: Phase 1 operational, phases 2 & 3 for RAPID
MISC Terminals:
- Tanjung Langsat: Minor exposure
- VTTI (50% stake): Global capacity of 8.1m cbm

M&A Trends

M&A activity is increasing among oil traders and national oil companies (e.g., Sinopec, Petronas) for strategic storage capacity.
Valuations for existing terminals remain attractive despite uncertainty around future capacity additions.

Singapore: REITs and Other Sectors

REITs Performance

Keppel REIT and Cache Logistics Trust reported results in line with expectations for 2Q15.
Market Outlook: REITs remain a stable investment in the current environment.

M1 (Mobile Operator)

2Q15 Results: Mobile revenue declined, impacting the stock price.
Target Price: S$3.08
Current Price: S$3.23

Thailand: Sector and Company Updates

Key Sector Insights

Economic Growth: Expected to remain stable at 2.7% in 2015.
Banking Sector:
- Siam Commercial Bank (SCB): Net profit down 10% yoy due to higher provisions.
- Total Access Communication (DTAC): Results below expectations.
- Thanachart Capital (TCAP): Operating revenue weak but asset quality improving; results in line with expectations.

Investment Recommendations

Bangchak Petroleum (BCP): Strong 2Q15 results expected; recommendation: BUY.
Key Risks: Market correction and potential delay in capital market reforms.

Key Indices Performance (as of 20 Jul 2015)

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	18100.4	0.1	0.7	0.5	1.6
S&P 500	2128.3	0.1	1.4	0.9	3.4
FTSE 100	6788.7	0.2	0.8	1.2	3.4
AS30	5669.0	0.3	3.8	1.4	5.2
CSI 300	4160.6	0.2	(1.2)	(10.3)	17.7
FSSTI	3373.5	0.6	2.9	2.2	0.2
HSCEI	11773.9	(0.6)	(1.9)	(10.7)	(1.8)
HSI	25404.8	(0.0)	0.7	(5.1)	7.6
JCI	4869.8	(0.7)	(0.0)	(0.1)	(6.8)
KLCI	1724.1	(0.2)	0.5	0.1	(2.1)
KOSPI	2073.3	(0.2)	0.6	1.3	8.2
Nikkei 225	20650.9	0.2	4.4	2.4	18.3
SET	1466.7	(0.9)	(1.6)	(1.7)	(2.1)
TWSE	8975.0	(0.8)	(0.7)	(2.6)	(3.6)
BDI	1067	1.8	18.6	37.0	36.4
CPO (RM/mt)	2184	0.3	0.2	(3.7)	(4.9)
Nymex Crude	50	(0.3)	(5.7)	(16.1)	(6.1)

Top Picks

Company	Ticker	Current Price (HK$)	Target Price (HK$)	Pot. +/- (%)
Beijing Capital	694 HK	8.90	12.30	38.2
ICBC	1398 HK	5.67	7.80	37.6
Bank BJB	BJR JI	835.00	1,300.00	55.7
DBS	DBS SP	21.37	25.08	17.4
SATS Ltd	SATS SP	3.63	4.00	10.2
Kasikornbank	KBANK TB	188.00	232.00	23.4
PTT	PTT TB	330.00	410.00	24.2

Key Assumptions

Country/Region	GDP (%yoy) 2013	GDP (%yoy) 2014	GDP (%yoy) 2015F
US	2.2	2.4	2.9
Euro Zone	-0.5	0.9	1.3
Japan	1.6	-0.1	1.0
Singapore	4.4	2.9	2.9
Malaysia	4.7	6.0	5.0
Thailand	2.8	0.9	2.7
Indonesia	5.6	5.0	5.0
Hong Kong	2.9	3.5	3.7
China	7.7	7.2	7.0

Brent (Average)	2014 (US$/bbl)	2015F (US$/bbl)	2016F (US$/bbl)
99.45	61	72

CPO (US$/mt)	2014 (US$/mt)	2015F (US$/mt)	2016F (US$/mt)
722	765	788

Corporate Events

Concord New Energy Teleconference: 16 Jul 2015

Analysts

China: Chaoping Zhu
Email: chaoping@uobkayhian.com
Contact: +8621 5404 7225 ext. 822
Malaysia: Kong Ho Meng
Email: homeng@uobkayhian.com
Contact: +603 2147 1987
Singapore: Not explicitly named in the document.

Conclusion

The document highlights a cautious outlook for China's economy and automobile sector, with a focus on the "new normal" and reform progress. Malaysia's oil & gas sector shows strong storage potential, with Dialog and MISC maintaining sector premiums. Singapore's REITs and M1 are in line with expectations, while Thailand's banking and telecom sectors face mixed performance. Investment recommendations are aligned with market weight and specific sector dynamics.

展开完整摘要