20150714-USDA-USD_ACotton_and_Wool_Outlook（2015-07-14）_16页_308kb

报告摘要

Cotton and Wool Outlook Summary (CWS-15g, July 14, 2015)

Core Content Overview

The Cotton and Wool Outlook report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) provides a comprehensive analysis of global and U.S. cotton and wool supply, demand, and market conditions for the 2015/16 season. It outlines production forecasts, consumption trends, trade data, and price movements, emphasizing the shift in mill use and the impact of economic factors and policy decisions.

Global Cotton Mill Use and Consumption

Global Cotton Mill Use: Expected to rise for the fourth consecutive season, reaching 114.4 million bales in 2015/16, a 3% increase from the previous year.
China's Role: Continues to be the largest user of raw cotton, accounting for 30% of global use.
Shift in Growth: China's share of the global market has declined due to increased spinning costs, while India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam have seen significant growth in mill use.
India's Growth: Projected to increase mill use by 20% since 2012/13, and is expected to surpass China as the world's largest producer in 2015/16.
Vietnam's Growth: Mill use is expected to be 17% higher than the previous year, with a 2.5-fold increase since 2012/13.
Global Consumption Trends: Remain on an upward trend, driven by world economic growth and the lagged effect of lower cotton prices.
China's Consumption: Reduced sharply in July due to competition from polyester fiber and imported cotton products.
Global Stocks: Forecast to decline to 108.1 million bales in 2015/16, a 2.5% decrease from the previous year, with China holding 60% of the global stocks.

U.S. Cotton Crop Projections

2015 U.S. Cotton Crop: Projected at 14.5 million bales, unchanged since May and 11% below the 2014 crop.
Planted Area: Estimated at 9.0 million acres, 6% below March and 18% below 2014.
Regional Acreage:
- Southwest: 5.5 million acres, 15% below 2014, representing 62% of the U.S. total.
- Southeast: 2.2 million acres, 18% below 2014, the lowest in 6 years.
- Delta: 1.0 million acres, the lowest in nearly a century, representing 12% of the U.S. total.
- West: 161,000 acres, the smallest in nearly a century, contributing 2% of the U.S. upland area.
Yield Forecast: 819 pounds per harvested acre, 19 pounds below the previous season.
Crop Conditions: Early season conditions are above the last several seasons due to favorable rainfall, with 57% of the U.S. area rated "good" or "excellent" as of July 12th.

U.S. Cotton Demand and Stocks

2015/16 U.S. Cotton Demand: Revised to 14.55 million bales, slightly higher than the previous season.
Mill Use: Forecast at 3.75 million bales, a 50,000-bale decrease in July but a 200,000-bale increase from 2014/15.
Exports: Projected at 10.8 million bales, 100,000 bales higher in July but 200,000 bales below the 2014/15 estimate.
Ending Stocks: Forecast at 4.2 million bales, the highest since 2008/09, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 29%.
U.S. Share of Global Trade: Projected near 32%, up from 26% in 2013/14.

Global Cotton Production Outlook

Global Production: Forecast at 111.5 million bales, 6% lower than the 2014/15 crop, the smallest since 2009/10.
Harvested Area: Projected at 31.8 million hectares, 2 million hectares (6%) less than the previous year.
Yield: Estimated at 764 kg per hectare, slightly below the 2014/15 level.
Top Producers:
- India: Expected to surpass China as the largest producer with 29.5 million bales, 26.5% of global production.
- China: Production forecast to fall 10% to 27 million bales, the lowest since 2003/04, with 24% of global production.
Global Production Concentration: Top five countries are expected to contribute 79% of world production, slightly above the 2011/12–2014/15 average.

Global Cotton Consumption and Stocks

Global Consumption: Forecast to rise to 114.4 million bales in 2015/16, 3% above 2014/15.
Global Stocks: Expected to fall to 108.1 million bales, a 2.5% decrease from 2014/15, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 94.5%.
China's Stock Reduction: Declined 3% to 65.1 million bales, the first decline in several seasons.

U.S. and World Fiber Prices

Upland Cotton Farm Price: Expected to range between 54 and 70 cents per pound, with a midpoint 1.5 cents above the 2014/15 estimate.
Domestic Cotton Prices:
- Adjusted World Price: Rose from 49.99 cents per pound in April to 51.61 cents per pound in May.
- Upland Spot 41-34: Decreased slightly from 63.08 cents per pound in April to 63.06 cents per pound in May.
- Pima Spot 02-46: Dropped from 152.24 cents per pound in April to 149.00 cents per pound in May.
Wool Prices (clean):
- U.S. 58s: Increased from 2.97 dollars per pound in April to 3.36 dollars per pound in May.
- Australian 58s: Rose from 3.67 dollars per pound in April to 4.21 dollars per pound in May.
- U.S. 60s: Increased from 2.90 dollars per pound in April to 3.48 dollars per pound in May.
- Australian 60s: Rose from 3.97 dollars per pound in April to 4.28 dollars per pound in May.
- U.S. 64s: Increased from 3.38 dollars per pound in April to 3.99 dollars per pound in May.
- Australian 64s: Rose from 4.34 dollars per pound in April to 5.17 dollars per pound in May.

U.S. Textile Imports by Fiber

Total Textile Imports (2015): Reached 1.524 million pounds, with cotton being the largest component.
Cotton Imports: Forecast at 695,238 thousand pounds, representing 43.6% of total imports.
Manmade Fiber Imports: Accounted for 49.2% of total imports, with a notable increase in May.
Wool Imports: Forecast at 36,528 thousand pounds, representing 2.4% of total imports.

Key Information and Contacts

Next Release Date: August 14, 2015.
Contact Information:
- Leslie Meyer: (202) 694-5307, lmeyer@ers.usda.gov
- Stephen MacDonald: (202) 694-5305, stephenm@ers.usda.gov
- Carolyn Liggon: (202) 694-5056, cvliggon@ers.usda.gov
Subscription: Available via ERS e-mail notification service.
Data Access: Cotton and Wool Monthly Tables and Chart Gallery available at ERS Publications.
Related Websites:

Summary of Key Trends

Global Cotton Mill Use is rising, with a shift from China to India and Vietnam.
U.S. Cotton Crop is projected lower than 2014, with significant reductions in the Delta and West regions.
China's Share in global cotton use is declining, while India and Vietnam are experiencing strong growth.
Global Consumption continues to outpace production, leading to a decline in global stocks.
U.S. Stocks remain unchanged in 2015/16, but global stocks outside of China are projected to fall.
Cotton and Wool Prices have shown mixed trends, with some increases and others remaining stable.
Textile Imports by fiber have increased, with manmade fibers dominating the import mix.