20150714-USDA-USDA_Wheat_Outlook（2015-07-14）_22页_741kb

Summary of the 2015/16 U.S. and Global Wheat Outlook

Core Content

The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) released the 2015/16 Wheat Outlook on July 14, 2015, highlighting key trends in U.S. and global wheat supply, demand, and prices. The report outlines projections for production, utilization, and ending stocks, and discusses the impact of weather conditions and trade dynamics on the global wheat market.

Main Points

• U.S. 2015/16 Wheat Supplies:

  • Projected up by 58 million bushels from June due to higher beginning stocks and production.
  • Imports are down by 10 million bushels.
  • Ending stocks are raised 28 million bushels to 842 million, the largest since 2010/11.
  • Season-average price is projected at $4.75 to $5.75 per bushel, up from $4.40 to $5.40 in June.

• Domestic Production Trends:

  • Spring wheat production is up due to increased yields and larger harvested areas, offsetting declines in hard red winter (HRW) and soft red winter (SRW) wheat.
  • HRW production is 866 million bushels, down 21 million from June, but up 128 million from the previous year.
  • SRW production is 393 million bushels, down 62 million from last year due to lower yields and reduced area.
  • White winter wheat production is 196 million bushels, up 11 million from last year.
  • Hard red spring (HRS) production is 573 million bushels, up 18 million from 2014.
  • White spring production is 43.6 million bushels, up 4.1 million from 2014.
  • Durum wheat production is 75.5 million bushels, up 22.5 million from 2014, mainly due to larger harvested areas.

• Utilization and Use:

  • Total utilization for 2015/16 is up 30 million bushels from June and up 182 million from 2014/15.
  • Feed and residual use is up 5 million bushels to 200 million, driven by larger supplies and concerns over milling quality.
  • Exports are up 25 million bushels to 950 million, but still below the 5-year average.

• Class-Specific Projections:

  • HRW, HRS, and SRW ending stocks are all up year to year.
  • White and durum ending stocks are down due to higher utilization.

• International Outlook:

  • Global wheat production for 2015/16 is up 0.4 million tons to 722.0 million tons, mainly due to increased production in Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan.
  • Canadian production is down 1.5 million tons due to drought and heat, with yields reduced by 0.2 tons per hectare.
  • EU production is down 2.8 million tons, with France and Germany experiencing significant yield reductions.
  • Chinese feed and residual use is revised downward, boosting global ending stocks.
  • U.S. exports are up 0.75 million tons to 26.3 million, due to reduced competition from Canada and increased production.

• Price Projections:

  • The season-average farm price for 2015/16 is $4.75 to $5.75 per bushel, up 35 cents from June.
  • The midpoint of the July range is below the $5.99 per bushel from 2014/15.

• 2014/15 Supplies and Use:

  • U.S. supplies for 2014/15 are down 4 million bushels from June, with total imports down 25 million from 2013/14.
  • Utilization is down 45 million bushels from June, with feed and residual use declining due to higher ending stocks.
  • Ending stocks for 2014/15 are up 41 million bushels to 753 million, with China and India showing significant increases.

• Global Trade and Stocks:

  • World wheat trade for 2015/16 is down 0.3 million tons to 158.0 million tons, with China and India increasing imports.
  • Global ending stocks are up 17.4 million tons to 219.8 million, driven by Chinese stock increases.

Key Information

• The U.S. wheat market is expected to see larger supplies and higher ending stocks, despite increased use and exports.
• China's reduced feed and residual use has a significant impact on global wheat use and stocks.
• Weather conditions in Canada and the EU have negatively affected production, while FSU countries have seen increased output.
• U.S. exports are increased due to higher production and reduced competition, particularly from Canada for high-protein wheat.
• U.S. prices are expected to rise, influenced by cash and futures prices and the rising outlook for corn prices.

Additional Resources

• Contact Information:

  • Gary Vocke (domestic): (202) 694-5285, gvocke@ers.usda.gov
  • Olga Liefert (international): (202) 694-5155, oliefert@ers.usda.gov
  • Beverly Payton (Web Publishing): (202) 694-5165, bpayton@ers.usda.gov

• Subscription and Data:

  • Subscribe to ERS e-mail notifications at http://www.ers.usda.gov/subscribers-to-ers-e-newsletters.aspx
  • Access Wheat Monthly Tables and Wheat Chart Gallery at http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/whs-wheat-outlook and http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/wheat-chart-gALLERY.aspx

• Related Websites:

  • Wheat Outlook: http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/whs-wheat-outlook/WASDE
  • Grain Circular: http://www.fas.usda.gov/grain.arc.asp
  • Wheat Topic: http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/wheat.aspx

Conclusion

The 2015/16 wheat outlook indicates a positive supply outlook for the U.S., with increased production and ending stocks, but exports and prices are still below historical averages. Global wheat production is slightly up, with China and India playing a significant role in stock and trade adjustments. Weather conditions in key producing regions like Canada and the EU have reduced yields, while FSU countries have seen improved output, affecting global trade dynamics and price trends.