20150714-USDA-USDA_Oil_Crops_Outlook（2015-07-14）_11页_357kb

Oil Crops Outlook Summary (OCS-15g, July 14, 2015)

Core Content

This report provides an outlook for U.S. and global oil crops, including soybeans, sunflowerseed, flaxseed, canola, safflowerseed, and peanuts, as well as related products such as soybean meal, soybean oil, and cottonseed. It includes updates on planting and harvest areas, production forecasts, supply and demand expectations, and price trends for the 2015/16 marketing year and the previous 2014/15 season.

Main Points

U.S. Soybean Outlook

• Planting Acreage: U.S. farmers planted a record 85.1 million acres of soybeans in 2015/16, surpassing the 2014 planting intentions.
• Production Forecast: Production for 2015/16 is forecast at 3.885 billion bushels, up 35 million bushels from the previous forecast.
• Supply and Stocks: Despite higher production, the total supply is forecast 40 million bushels lower due to reduced beginning stocks. Season-ending stocks are forecast at 425 million bushels, down 50 million bushels from the previous forecast.
• Prices: The U.S. average farm price for soybeans is forecast to range between $8.50 and $10.00 per bushel, up from $8.25 to $9.75.
• Demand and Use: Domestic use is expected to increase by 2.5 percent to 32.3 million short tons, while exports are forecast at 1.775 billion bushels. The U.S. soybean crush is forecast at 1.84 billion bushels, up 10 million bushels.

U.S. Sunflowerseed and Other Oil Crops

• Soybean Meal: The forecast for U.S. soybean meal production is 43,725 million short tons for 2015/16. Meal prices are forecast to rise, with the U.S. average farm price expected to be between $315 and $355 per short ton.
• Soybean Oil: Production for 2015/16 is forecast at 21.270 billion pounds, with a 170 million-pound increase due to higher crush. Season-ending stocks are expected to reach nearly 1.4 billion pounds.
• Safflowerseed: Acreage declined 19 percent to 147,000 acres due to reduced planting in Montana and North Dakota, though California saw a slight increase. The decline is partially offset by irrigation rationing in California.
• Peanuts: Sown acreage increased 18 percent to 1.6 million acres, with a 20-percent increase in production to 6.2 billion pounds. This could lead to higher stocks next year.
• Flaxseed: Acreage increased 35 percent to 420,000 acres, with production expected to rise sharply.
• Canola: Acreage in Canada declined 2 percent to 8 million hectares, and production is forecast at 14.6 million tons. Crush is forecast at 7.2 million tons for 2014/15, and exports are expected to decrease to 8.1 million tons.

Global Outlook

• Brazil: Soybean exports for 2014/15 are forecast at 46.8 million metric tons, up 1.15 million. For 2015/16, exports are forecast at 50.75 million metric tons.
• Argentina: Soybean exports for 2015/16 are forecast at 8.7 million metric tons, up 200,000 tons, due to increased carryover stocks.
• China, EU, and Russia: Import demand is expected to be stronger for soybeans and soybean meal, with China's import forecast increased to 74 million metric tons for 2014/15.
• Rapeseed: Global production is forecast at 67.2 million metric tons, down 1.3 million from the previous forecast. EU production is expected to be 21.4 million metric tons, down 700,000 tons due to dry weather and heat. Season-ending stocks are expected to drop sharply to 4.6 million metric tons.
• EU Sunflowerseed: Production is forecast at 8.2 million metric tons, down 300,000 tons due to adverse weather conditions in Spain and France.
• India: New-crop oilseed production is expected to improve due to favorable monsoon rains. Vegetable oil and protein meal imports remain high due to shortages. India's palm oil imports are forecast to rise by 7 percent to 9.6 million metric tons.

Key Information

• U.S. Soybean Acreage: Surpassed previous records, with a forecast of 85.1 million acres planted for 2015/16.
• Soybean Production: Increased to 3.885 billion bushels for 2015/16, but reduced due to lower beginning stocks.
• Soybean Meal: Production increased, with a forecast of 43,725 million short tons for 2015/16.
• Soybean Oil: Production is expected to rise due to increased crush, with season-ending stocks projected at nearly 1.4 billion pounds.
• International Trade: Brazil and Argentina are expected to dominate global soybean trade, with increased export forecasts.
• Weather Impact: Dry weather and heat in the EU and Canada reduced rapeseed and canola production, while wet conditions in Missouri delayed planting.
• Market Trends: Prices for soybeans and soybean meal have increased due to lower stocks and higher demand, particularly from the U.S. domestic market and international buyers like China and the EU.

Tables Summary

• Table 1: Annual U.S. soybean supply and disappearance for 2013/14, 2014/15, and 2015/16.
• Table 2: U.S. soybean meal supply and disappearance for the same periods.
• Table 3: U.S. soybean oil supply and disappearance.
• Table 4: U.S. oilseed prices received by farmers for the 2015/16 marketing year and previous years.
• Table 5: U.S. vegetable oil and fats prices for the same periods.

These tables provide detailed data on production, imports, exports, and stocks for various oil crops and their by-products, highlighting trends and changes in supply and demand.