20150612-USDA-USDA_Cotton_and_Wool_Outlook_2015.6.12_15页_387kb

Cotton and Wool Outlook Summary (June 12, 2015)

Core Content

This report provides an outlook for the global and U.S. cotton and wool markets for the 2015/16 season, highlighting changes in production, demand, and prices.

Main Points

Global Cotton Outlook

• Ending Stocks: Global cotton ending stocks are projected to decrease for the first time since 2009/10 to 106.1 million bales, a 3.5 percent decline from 2014/15.
• China's Role: China's stocks are expected to fall slightly to 62.6 million bales, but it still holds 60 percent of global stocks.
• Production Decline: Global cotton production is projected to decrease by 6 percent to 111.3 million bales, marking the fourth consecutive season of decline.
• Mill Use Increase: World cotton mill use is forecast to rise by 3 percent to 115.3 million bales, the highest since 2010/11.
• Trade Reduction: Global cotton trade is projected to drop to 33.8 million bales, the lowest since 2008/9, due to reduced Chinese import demand.
• Prices: World cotton prices are expected to remain near the current season's average, with a 2014/15 average of 71 cents per pound.

U.S. Cotton Outlook

• Production: U.S. cotton production for 2015 is unchanged at 14.5 million bales, 11 percent below 2014.
• Planting Progress: As of June 7, 81 percent of the expected cotton area has been planted, below the 2010–14 average of 89 percent.
• Yield: The 2015 U.S. cotton yield is forecast at 809 pounds per harvested acre, down from 838 pounds in 2014.
• Mill Use: U.S. cotton mill use is projected to increase by 4 percent to 3.8 million bales, the highest since 2010/11, due to increased textile industry capacity.
• Exports: U.S. cotton exports are expected to remain stable at 10.7 million bales, with a U.S. share of world trade at 32 percent, the highest in 5 seasons.
• Ending Stocks: U.S. ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 4.4 million bales, unchanged from the beginning level but the highest since 2008/09.
• Price Range: The U.S. average farm price for 2015/16 is expected to range between 50 and 70 cents per pound, with a midpoint slightly below 2014/15's revised estimate of 60.5 cents per pound.

Key Information

International Production

• India: Expected to be the leading producer at 29.5 million bales, with production unchanged from 2014/15 due to lower area and higher yields.
• China: Production is projected to decline by 10 percent to 27 million bales, with a continued shift to the Xinjiang region for higher yields.
• Pakistan: Production is expected to decrease by 6 percent to 10 million bales.
• Brazil: Production is projected to fall to 6.8 million bales, a 4 percent decrease from the previous year.

Global Mill Use

• China and India: Together account for over 53 percent of global cotton mill use, with China's consumption at 36 million bales and India's at 25.8 million bales.
• Mill Use Growth: Mill use is expected to increase in the U.S., Turkey, Bangladesh, and Vietnam.

Cotton Trade

• China's Imports: China's raw cotton imports are expected to decline for the fourth consecutive season to 6 million bales.
• Other Countries: Vietnam, Turkey, and Indonesia are expected to increase their cotton imports to offset some of China's decline.
• Southern Hemisphere: Exports from Brazil and Australia are projected to decrease, contributing to the overall reduction in global trade.

Wool Outlook

• Imports and Exports: The report includes data on wool and manmade fiber imports and exports, with specific details on the U.S. and global markets.
• Prices: Wool prices are reported in cents per pound, with U.S. 58s wool at $2.90 per pound and Australian 58s wool at $3.65 per pound.

Summary of Key Tables

• Table 1: U.S. cotton supply and use estimates, showing changes in production, mill use, and ending stocks.
• Table 2: World cotton supply and use estimates, highlighting global production, trade, and ending stocks.
• Table 3: U.S. fiber supply and prices, including cotton and wool data.
• Table 4: U.S. textile imports by fiber, showing the breakdown of imports.
• Table 5: U.S. textile exports by fiber, providing details on export volumes.
• Table 6: U.S. cotton textile imports by origin, listing key regions and their import levels.
• Table 7: U.S. fiber demand, including data on different textile categories.

Additional Information

• Next Report: The next release is scheduled for July 14, 2015.
• Contact Information: Provided for further inquiries.
• Subscription: Readers can subscribe to the ERS e-mail notification service for updates.
• Data Access: Links to the Cotton and Wool Monthly Tables and Chart Gallery are included for further reference.