20171016-USDA-USDA_Cotton_and_Wool_Outlook_2017.10.16_18页_828kb

Summary of the Cotton and Wool Outlook Report (CWS-17j)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an outlook for global and U.S. cotton and wool markets for the 2017/18 marketing year. It includes production, demand, stock levels, and trade forecasts, along with price data and regional analysis.

Global Cotton Outlook

• Production: Global cotton production for 2017/18 is forecast at 120.9 million bales, a 13% increase from the previous year and slightly above the September projection.
• Consumption: Global cotton consumption is projected to rise nearly 4% to 118.0 million bales, the largest increase since 2012/13.
• Stocks: Global ending stocks are expected to increase by 3% to 92.4 million bales, the highest since 2012/13. China's stocks are projected to decrease to 39.5 million bales, but still account for 43% of global stocks.
• Stocks-to-Use Ratio: The global stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 78.3%, the lowest since 2011/12.
• Regional Trends:
  • India: Production is forecast at 30.0 million bales, up 11% from 2016/17.
  • China: Production is expected to rise 8% to 24.5 million bales, with yield remaining similar to the previous year.
  • United States: Production is estimated at 21.1 million bales, a 3% decrease from last month's forecast.
  • Pakistan: Production is forecast to increase by 1.5 million bales to nearly 9.2 million.
  • Southern Hemisphere: Brazil and Australia are expected to see increased production due to expanded area and favorable yields.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

• Production Estimate: The U.S. cotton production estimate for 2017 is 21.1 million bales, 3% below the previous forecast but 4 million bales above the 2016 crop.
• Harvested Area and Yield:
  • Total harvested area is estimated at 11.4 million acres, up from 9.5 million acres in the previous season.
  • National yield is projected at 889 pounds per harvested acre, slightly below the 2012 record.
• Regional Production:
  • Southwest: Upland production is forecast at 20.4 million bales, the largest on record.
  • Southeast: Production is projected at 4.8 million bales, up from the previous two seasons.
  • Delta: Production is expected at 4.4 million bales, the largest since 2011.
  • West: Upland production is forecast at 953,000 bales, the highest in 5 years.
• Extra-Long Staple (ELS): ELS production is forecast at 727,000 bales, the highest since 2012.
• Demand and Exports:
  • U.S. cotton demand is revised to 17.85 million bales for 2017/18.
  • Exports are projected at 14.5 million bales, the third highest on record.
  • U.S. share of global trade is forecast at 38%, down from 40% in the previous season.
• Ending Stocks: U.S. ending stocks are projected at 5.689 million bales, a 33.1% stocks-to-use ratio, which is significantly higher than the previous year's 15%.
• Farm Price: The average upland cotton farm price is projected to range between 55 and 65 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 60 cents, representing an 8-cent decline from the previous season.

Global Cotton Mill Use

• China: Mill use is projected at 38.5 million bales, the highest since 2010/11.
• India: Mill use is forecast at 24.5 million bales, a 4% increase from the previous year.
• Pakistan: Mill use is expected to expand by 3% to 10.6 million bales.
• Bangladesh: Mill use is projected to grow 6% to a record 6.9 million bales.
• Vietnam: Mill use is forecast to reach a record 6.2 million bales, with a growth rate of nearly 15%.
• Turkey: Mill use is projected at a decade high of nearly 6.8 million bales.

Cotton Trade

• Global Trade: Cotton trade is projected to rise to 38.2 million bales in 2017/18, an increase of less than 1 million bales from the previous year.
• Major Importers: Bangladesh, Vietnam, and China are expected to remain the top three importers.
• Exports: India's exports are forecast to rise slightly, while Australia and Brazil are expected to see stronger growth due to larger crops.

Wool and Mohair Outlook

• Wool and Mohair Imports:
  • Yarn, thread, and fabric imports by fiber are forecast to rise in 2017/18, with cotton, linen, wool, and synthetic fibers all showing increases.
  • Wool and mohair imports are expected to increase, with wool imports rising significantly.
• Wool and Mohair Exports:
  • U.S. wool exports are projected to increase, with the highest levels in certain categories.
  • Wool top and mohair exports are forecast to grow.
• Prices:
  • Wool prices are listed in cents per pound, with notable increases in Australian wool prices.
  • U.S. wool prices are forecast to range between $3.19 and $4.55 per pound.

Key Figures and Trends

• Global Stocks: Rise to 92.4 million bales, up 3% from the previous year.
• U.S. Stocks: Increase to 5.689 million bales, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 33.1%.
• Production: U.S. upland cotton production is forecast at 20.4 million bales, with the Southwest leading the increase.
• Consumption: Global consumption is projected to rise nearly 4% to 118.0 million bales.
• Trade: Global cotton trade is expected to increase to 38.2 million bales, with the U.S. experiencing a slight decrease in exports.

Conclusion

The 2017/18 cotton outlook indicates a global increase in production and stocks, driven by higher output in countries like India, Brazil, and Australia. U.S. production remains strong, but the country's share of global trade is expected to decline slightly. China continues to reduce its surplus, while other major spinning countries show growth in mill use and consumption. Cotton prices are projected to decline slightly, and wool and mohair trade and prices are expected to see mixed trends.