20170814-USDA-USDA_Cotton_and_Wool_Outlook_2017.08.14_18页_846kb

Summary of the Economic Research Service Cotton and Wool Outlook (August 14, 2017)

Core Content

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released the Cotton and Wool Outlook for August 14, 2017, covering trade, production, demand, and stock forecasts for the 2017/18 marketing year. The report outlines the status of U.S. and global cotton and wool markets, with a focus on production trends, trade dynamics, and the impact of global supply and demand on U.S. market share and prices.

U.S. Cotton Textile and Apparel Trade

• Trade unchanged: U.S. cotton textile and apparel trade remained virtually unchanged in the first half of 2017 compared to 2016.
• Imports increased: U.S. cotton product imports totaled nearly 8.6 million bales, up slightly from 8.5 million in 2016.
• Exports decreased: Cotton product exports dropped by 3% to nearly 1.8 million bales.
• Trade deficit: The trade deficit for the first half of 2017 was 6.8 million bale-equivalents, a marginal increase from the previous year.
• Top suppliers: The top five countries accounted for two-thirds of U.S. cotton product imports. China remained the leading supplier (30%), followed by India (12%), Pakistan, Vietnam, and Bangladesh (each 8%).

U.S. Domestic Outlook

Production Forecast

• 2017 production: Estimated at 20.5 million bales, up from 19 million bales in July and 17.2 million bales in 2016.
• Planted area: 12.1 million acres, up 2 million from 2016 and matching the June Acreage report.
• Harvested area: 11.1 million acres, with an abandonment rate of 8%, slightly higher than the 2016 rate of 5.5%.
• Yield: Forecast at 892 pounds per harvested acre, a 3% increase over 2016 and matching the 2012 record.
• Regional production:
  • Southwest: Projected to reach a record 9.6 million bales, up 850,000 from 2016.
  • Southeast: 5.2 million bales, or 27% of the U.S. total.
  • Delta: 4 million bales, the largest since 2012.
  • West: 905,000 bales, up 200,000 from 2016, with an expected increase in extra-long staple (ELS) production to 770,000 bales.

Demand and Stocks

• Demand for 2017/18: Revised to 17.55 million bales, 4% above the July forecast but 3% below the 2016/17 adjusted demand.
• Exports for 2017/18: Forecast at 14.2 million bales, up 700,000 from July but down 700,000 from the revised 2016/17 estimate.
• Mill use: Reduced to 3.25 and 3.35 million bales for 2016/17 and 2017/18, respectively, due to historically low mill activity.
• Ending stocks: Expected to rise to 5.8 million bales, more than doubling the stocks-to-use ratio to 33%, the highest since 2008/09.
• Farm price: Forecast to range between 55 and 67 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 61 cents, slightly below the 2016/17 estimate.

International Outlook

Global Production and Consumption

• World production: Forecast at 117.3 million bales for 2017/18, a 10% increase from 2016/17.
• Global consumption: Projected at 117.4 million bales, a 3% increase from the previous year.
• Major contributors to production growth:
  • United States: Up 3.4 million bales.
  • India: Up 2 million bales (7%).
  • China: Up 8%.
• Harvested area: Projected at 32.5 million hectares (80.2 million acres), the highest in 3 years.
• Global yield: Forecast at 787 kg per hectare (702 pounds per acre), near the 2016/17 level.

Country-Specific Forecasts

• China:
  • Production: 24.5 million bales, up 8% from the previous year.
  • Area: 12.0 million hectares, up 14%.
  • Yield: Near the 2016/17 record at 1,707 kg per hectare.
  • Consumption: 38.5 million bales, up from 37.5 million.
• India:
  • Production: 29.0 million bales, the highest in 3 years.
  • Area: 12.0 million hectares, up 14%.
  • Yield: Near the 5-year average at 527 kg per hectare.
• Pakistan:
  • Production: Rebounded to nearly 9.2 million bales, up from 7.4 million in the previous two years.
  • Area: 2.8 million hectares, up 14%.
  • Yield: 711 kg per hectare, the highest in 3 years.
• Brazil:
  • Production: Projected to increase by 3% to 7.0 million bales.
  • Area: 1.0 million hectares.
  • Yield: Retreated by 4%.
• Global trade: Forecast at 37.2 million bales, slightly below the 2016/17 estimate of 37.4 million.
• Global trade changes: Gains in Bangladesh and Vietnam are offset by reductions in India, Pakistan, and Turkey.
• U.S. share of global trade: Expected to decline from 40% to 38.5%, but still above the 5-year average of 30%.
• Global ending stocks: Forecast to remain flat at 90.1 million bales, similar to the 2016/17 level.
• China's stocks: Declined by more than 9 million bales due to sales from the State Reserve, reaching a 6-year low.
• Global stocks-to-use ratio: Projected at 76.7%, the lowest since 2011/12.

Key Figures and Tables

• Table 1: Provides U.S. supply and use estimates for 2016/17 and 2017/18, including production, mill use, exports, and ending stocks.
• Table 2: Shows world supply and use estimates, highlighting the growth in global production and consumption.
• Table 3: Details U.S. and world fiber supplies, including raw fiber and wool imports.
• Table 4: Summarizes U.S. fiber demand, with specific data on cotton, wool, and synthetic fiber usage.
• Table 5: Contains U.S. and world fiber prices, including domestic cotton prices and wool prices.
• Table 6: Provides U.S. textile imports by fiber type, including yarn, fabric, and apparel.

Contacts and Resources

• Contact: Leslie Meyer (imeyer@ers.usda.gov) and Carolyn Liggon (cvliggon@ers.usda.gov).
• Subscription: Readers can subscribe to ERS e-mail notifications at http://www.ers.usda.gov/subscribe-to-ers-e-newsletters.aspx.
• Data and Reports: Cotton and Wool Chart Gallery, Cotton, Wool, and Textile Data, and related websites are available for further information.

Conclusion

The report indicates a slight increase in U.S. cotton production for 2017, with a projected trade deficit due to a higher import volume and lower export levels. Global production and consumption are expected to rise, with increased competition from major producers like China, India, and Pakistan. The U.S. share of global trade is forecast to decline, while ending stocks are expected to increase significantly, especially for the U.S. and India. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected to fall to its lowest level since 2011/12.