20171214-USDA-USDA_Cotton_and_Wool_Outlook_2017.12.14_17页_1mb

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Cotton and Wool Outlook Summary (2017/18)

Core Content Overview

This document provides an overview of the 2017/18 global and U.S. cotton and wool market outlook, including production, trade, consumption, and price projections.

Global Cotton Trade

Global cotton trade reached a 4-year high in 2017/18, projected at 38.5 million bales, up 3% from the previous season.
The trade remains 17% below the record level of 2012/13 (46.5 million bales).
The increase is driven by above-average growth in world cotton mill use.
Nonproducing countries are the main importers, with producing/exporting countries meeting their demand.
The U.S., Brazil, and Australia are expected to account for 60% of global trade.
- U.S. exports are projected to be 14.8 million bales, close to the previous season's exports.
- Brazil and Australia are expected to increase their exports due to larger high-quality crops.
India and Uzbekistan are forecast to see declines in cotton exports.
The U.S. share of global trade is projected at 38.5%, slightly below the previous season's 40%.
The U.S. upland cotton farm price is projected to range between 63 and 69 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 66 cents, 2 cents below the final 2016/17 estimate.

U.S. Cotton Production

The 2017 U.S. cotton production is forecast at 21.4 million bales, 25% above the 2016 crop and the largest since 2006.
Planted area is 12.6 million acres, and harvested area is 11.4 million acres, resulting in an abandonment rate of 10%.
The national yield is forecast at a record 902 pounds per harvested acre, up 4% from last season.
Upland cotton production is the largest since 2006, with the fourth highest on record.
Extra-long staple (ELS) production is forecast at 727,000 bales, up from 569,000 bales in 2016.
Regional production:
- Southwest: Forecast at 10.8 million bales, a record for the region, with 23% increase over 2016 due to larger harvested area and second-highest yield.
- Southeast: Projected at 4.7 million bales, up 900,000 bales from 2016, with 3-year high.
- Delta: Forecast at 4.3 million bales, up 1 million from 2016, the largest in 6 years.
- West: Projected at 905,000 bales, up from 708,000 bales last season, with higher area offsetting below-average yield.

Global Cotton Production

Global cotton production for 2017/18 is projected at 120.0 million bales, up 13% from the previous season.
World harvested area is expected to reach 33.2 million hectares, up 12%.
Global yield is forecast at 788 kg per hectare, above the 5-year average.
Top producers:
- India: Production is forecast at 29.5 million bales, up 9% from 2016/17, the highest since 2014/15, with rebound in area offsetting yield reduction.
- China: Production is projected at 25.0 million bales, the highest in 3 years, with harvested area at 3.1 million hectares, the highest since 2014/15.
- Pakistan: Production is forecast at 8.2 million bales, up 500,000 bales from the previous season, but yield expectations are lower than in 2016/17.
- Brazil and Australia: Both are expected to see 11% and 16% increases in production, respectively, due to higher yields and larger harvested areas.

Global Cotton Consumption

Global cotton consumption is projected to increase by 4%, reaching 119.6 million bales, the largest year-to-year growth since 2009/10.
The growth is attributed to the improved global economic outlook and favorable cotton-to-synthetic price ratio.
China is the leading spinner of raw cotton, with mill use at 39.0 million bales, up 4% from the previous year, the highest since 2010/11.
India, Pakistan, and Vietnam are also expected to see increased mill use.
- India: Projected at 24.75 million bales, up 3% from 2016/17.
- Pakistan: Projected at 10.4 million bales, up slightly from last year and the highest in 3 years.
- Vietnam: Projected at 6.1 million bales, a record and up 13% from the previous season.
Bangladesh and Turkey are also expected to see increases in cotton mill use, with gains of approximately 7.5%.

Global Cotton Stocks

Global cotton stocks at the end of 2017/18 are forecast at 88.0 million bales, up slightly from 87.7 million bales in the previous season.
Despite the increase, stocks remain well below the record levels of 2014/15.
Stocks are expected to rise in the U.S. and India, with India's stocks increasing by over 2 million bales to 13.2 million bales.
China's stocks are expected to continue declining, reaching 39.7 million bales, or 45% of world stocks.
U.S. stocks are projected to increase by over 3 million bales, but still below the 2016/17 level.
The stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 32%, the highest since 2008/09.

Cotton Prices

The Cotlook A Index price is projected to decrease by about 7% from 2016/17's 82.8-cent average.
U.S. upland cotton farm price is projected to range between 63 and 69 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 66 cents, 2 cents below the previous season.
U.S. domestic cotton prices are expected to be slightly lower than the previous season.

Contacts and Subscription Information

Contact: Leslie Meyer (lmeyer@ers.usda.gov) and Carolyn Liggon (cvliggon@ers.usda.gov).
Subscription: Readers can subscribe to ERS e-mail notifications at http://www.ers.usda.gov/subscribe-to-ers-e-newsletters.aspx.

Data and Related Resources

Cotton and Wool Chart Gallery: Updated on December 18, 2017.
Data Sources:
- USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports.
- Cotlook and USDA, Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee.
- USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, and other related agencies.
Related websites:

Tables

Table 1: U.S. cotton supply and use estimates.
Table 2: World cotton supply and use estimates.
Table 3: U.S. and world fiber prices.
Table 4: U.S. textile imports, by fiber.
Table 5: U.S. textile exports, by fiber.

Additional Notes

The U.S. Department of Agriculture prohibits discrimination in its programs and activities.
Persons with disabilities can contact the TARGET Center for alternative communication methods.
The Cotlook A Index and U.S. domestic prices are key indicators of global and local market trends.

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