20170714-USDA-USDA_Cotton_and_Wool_Outlook_2017.07.14_16页_795kb

Cotton and Wool Outlook Summary (CWS-17g, July 14, 2017)

Core Content

The document provides an overview of the global and U.S. cotton and wool market outlook for the 2017/18 season, including production, consumption, trade, and price forecasts.

Main Points

Global Cotton Outlook

• Global Cotton Consumption:

  • Projected at 117.0 million bales in 2017/18, a 3% increase from 2016/17.
  • This is the highest level since 2011/12 and the second highest since 2010/11.
  • Consumption growth is attributed to increased use in key countries such as India, China, Bangladesh, Turkey, and Vietnam.

• Global Cotton Production:

  • Forecast at 115.4 million bales for 2017/18, an 8% increase from 2016/17.
  • This marks a 19% rebound from the 2015/16 12-year low.
  • Global cotton harvested area is expected to increase by 10% to 32.4 million hectares (80.1 million acres), driven by favorable conditions and higher expected returns compared to alternative crops.

• Major Producers:

  • The top five cotton-producing countries are expected to account for over 76% of global production, similar to the previous season but slightly below the 2013/14–2015/16 average.
  • India: Projected to produce 29.0 million bales, a 7% increase from 2016/17, driven by a 14% increase in area planted despite a slightly lower yield.
  • China: Expected to produce 24.0 million bales, a 5.5% increase, with a record yield of 1,713 kg per hectare.
  • United States: Projected at 24.0 million bales, with a 3% increase in yield compared to 2016.
  • Global Stocks-to-Use Ratio: Projected at 31.4% for 2017/18, the highest in 9 years.

• Global Trade:

  • Forecast at 36.8 million bales, slightly above 2016/17.
  • The U.S. is expected to reduce its exports by 1 million bales, while other major producers like Australia, Brazil, and Uzbekistan are projected to increase their exports.
  • India's exports are forecast to decrease by 2% (100,000 bales).

• Global Prices:

  • The global average cotton price (A Index) is expected to decrease slightly due to rising stocks outside of China.
  • The 2017/18 U.S. farm price is projected to range between 54 and 68 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 61 cents, 7 cents below the 2016/17 estimate.

U.S. Cotton Outlook

• U.S. Cotton Crop:

  • Projected at 19.0 million bales for 2017, a 1% decrease from the June estimate but an 11% increase from 2016.
  • The decrease is attributed to lower planted area, as reported in the June Acreage report.
  • Planted area for 2017 is estimated at 12.1 million acres, slightly below March estimates but 20% above 2016.

• Regional Acreage:

  • Southwest: 7.1 million acres, 19% higher than 2016 and the second highest since 1981.
  • Southeast: 2.6 million acres, 400,000 acres above the previous two seasons.
  • Delta: 1.8 million acres, the highest in 5 years but equal to the 10-year average.
  • West: 302,000 acres, a 2.6% share of total U.S. area.
  • Extra-long staple (ELS): 252,000 acres, a 30% increase from 2016, the highest since 2011.

• Crop Conditions:

  • As of July 9, 61% of the U.S. cotton area is rated "good" or "excellent," up from 54% a year earlier.
  • 12% of the area is rated "poor" or "very poor," compared to 11% in 2016.
  • Favorable spring moisture conditions have helped the crop development.

• Domestic Demand:

  • U.S. cotton demand for 2017/18 is unchanged at 16.9 million bales.
  • This includes 3.4 million bales of domestic mill use.
  • Ending stocks are projected at 5.168 million bales, up from 3.2 million bales in 2016/17, and the highest since 2008/09.
  • The stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 31.9%, the highest in 9 years.

Key Information

• U.S. Cotton Crop Development:

  • 61% of the crop is squaring, above last season and the 2012–16 average.
  • 19% of the area is setting bolls, slightly above the 5-year average.

• Global Consumption Trends:

  • India's consumption is projected to rise by 3% to nearly 24.8 million bales.
  • China's mill use is expected to reach 38.0 million bales, the highest since 2011/12.
  • Access to domestic reserve supplies is expected to limit yarn imports in China.

• U.S. Trade and Prices:

  • U.S. exports are forecast to decrease by 1 million bales.
  • The U.S. share of global trade is expected to drop from 40% to 37%.
  • Domestic cotton prices are expected to range between 54 and 68 cents per pound.

• Stocks and Ratios:

  • Global ending stocks are projected at 88.7 million bales, a 1.5-million-bale reduction from 2016/17.
  • The global stocks-to-use ratio is expected to reach 75.8%, the lowest since 2011/12.
  • China's ending stocks are projected to decline by more than 9 million bales (19%) to 39.3 million bales, the lowest in 6 years.

Contacts and Resources

• Contact Information:

  • Leslie Meyer: (202) 694-5307 | imeyer@ers.usda.gov
  • Carolyn Liggon (web publishing): (202) 694-5056 | cvliggon@ers.usda.gov

• Subscription Information:

  • Subscribe to ERS e-mail notification service at http://www.ers.usda.gov/subscribers-to-ers

• Data and Reports:

  • Cotton and Wool Monthly Tables
  • Cotton and Wool Chart Gallery
  • Related websites: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1194, http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/cotton-wool.aspx, http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1281

• Email Notification:

  • Timely notification via http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/aboutEmailService.do
  • Weekly notification via http://www.ers.usda.gov/subscribeto-ers-e-newsletters.aspx

Summary of Key Tables

• Table 1: U.S. cotton supply and use estimates for 2017/18 show an increase in production and a rise in ending stocks.
• Table 2: World cotton supply and use estimates show a slight increase in global consumption and production, with a decrease in global ending stocks.
• Table 3: U.S. and world fiber prices indicate a slight decline in the U.S. farm price and stable global trade prices.
• Table 4: U.S. textile imports by fiber show an increase in cotton and synthetic imports, with a slight decrease in wool.
• Table 5: U.S. textile exports by fiber show a decrease in cotton and synthetic exports, with a decline in wool.
• Table 6: U.S. fiber prices indicate a general trend of increasing prices for wool and synthetic fibers.
• Table 7: U.S. fiber supply and use data highlights the growth in global cotton mill use and the importance of China and India in the market.

Conclusion

The 2017/18 season is expected to see a rebound in global cotton production and consumption, driven by favorable conditions and increased demand in key regions like China, India, and Vietnam. However, the U.S. cotton crop is projected to decrease slightly, with a corresponding decline in exports and farm prices. The global stocks-to-use ratio is expected to reach its lowest in 9 years, while U.S. stocks are projected to increase. This outlook reflects a complex interplay between production, trade, and domestic demand.