20230701-财通证券-实体经济图谱2023年第18期_价格带动库存去化_24页_1mb

Summary of Price-Driven Inventory Depletion in the Economy (财通证券 2023年7月1日报告)

Key Findings

• Overall Economic Trend: The economy is in a gradual recovery phase, with the manufacturing PMI stabilizing but still below trend lines. Real GDP indicators show mixed results, with some sectors improving while others face declines.

• Inventory Depletion: Prices are a primary driver for inventory liquidation. As of end-May, industrial inventory levels remain elevated, with actual stock declines lagging behind nominal inventory reductions. Industries exhibit varying levels: low inventory in sectors like steel and textiles, but high in auto and cement, leading to price divergences.

• Demand-Side Weakness: Consumer demand remains subdued. Real estate sales volume dropped in June (35 major cities), and auto sales (both dealer inventory and market sales) are slowing. Retail services saw some recovery, but overall discretionary spending is down due to economic uncertainty.

• Supply-Side Improvements: Production indicators are positive in certain areas. For example, industrial output, steel production, and energy sectors showed slight increases. Supply chains are adapting, with mixed inventory builds and drops across industries.

• Price Signals: Higher prices in steel and other commodities reflect supply-demand adjustments, while deflationary pressures in cement and consumer goods indicate weak demand. PPI trends are expected to support potential inventory rebuilding if economic momentum picks up.

Risks

• Economic Downturn: Potential slower recovery or policy shifts could exacerbate inventory and demand issues.

• Sector-Specific Vulnerabilities: Disparities in inventory and price trends may widen, risk: Imbalances in key industries like heavy manufacturing and construction.