2025-06-11-花旗集团-久保田（6326）_久保田（6326.T）_回购完成_下一步是什么_再次下调预期和回购_12页_530kb

Kubota (6326.T)

Citi’s Take:

• Buyback Update: Completed its announced buyback program.
• Next Steps: Likely to announce another buyback later this year.

Valuation & Targets:

• Target Price: ¥1,850 (based on 12x FY12/25 EPS).
• Expected Share Price Return: 15.2%.
• Expected Dividend Yield: 3.1%, Total Return: 18.3%.
• Market Cap: ¥1,845,377M ($12,739M).

Key Strengths:

• Secular growth in Asian agricultural mechanization.
• Strong position in compact construction equipment.
• Opportunities in untapped markets (India, Latin America, Africa).
• Proactive shareholder returns (e.g., buybacks).

Risks & Concerns:

• Struggling North American residential business.
• Elevated inventories for small tractors.
• High R&D/capex, linked to overseas production expansion.
• Price-following behavior, not price-leading.
• Market Factors: Tariffs, yen fluctuations, food price volatility, climate change, housing starts, and US policies.

Analyst: Graeme McDonald
Date: 11 June 2025

Komatsu (6301.T)

Citi’s Take:

• Valuation: Target Price ¥4,500 (11x FY3/26 EPS).
• Earnings Outlook: Earnings may beat conservative guidance due to yen weakness and demand for mining services.

Key Strengths:

• ~50% of revenue from high-margin after-sales services.
• Dividend yield >4%.
• Opportunities in mining and construction services.

Risks:

• Slowdown in global GDP and construction demand.
• Competition from Chinese OEMs in Southeast Asia.
• Commodity price declines (coal, copper, iron ore).
• Currency & ESG: Yen fluctuations, tariff policies, and ESG concerns due to coal-linked mining activities.

Analyst: Graeme McDonald
Date: 11 June 2025