2025-06-11-花旗集团-密涅瓦（BEEF3）_米内尔瓦（BEEF3.SA）模型更新_11页_265kb

报告摘要

Date: 11 June 2025
Symbol: BEEF3.SA

Citigroup updates its valuation model for 2Q25 results, incorporating neutral macro forecasts and increased discount rates due to higher Brazilian interest rates.
EPS estimates improved to R$1.00 for 2025 (up from -2.57) and R$1.23 for 2026, reflecting recovery in net income.
Target price lowered to R$5.60 (from R$6.50), driven by reassessment of future growth, with expected 12-month return of 9.8%.
Market capitalization stands at R$5,070M (US$910M).

Sales projected to grow significantly, with 2025 sales estimated at R$54,015M, up from R$34,069M in 2024, supported by high-volume growth in key markets.
EBITDA adj. margin expected to decline slightly to 8.7% in 2025, from 9.2% in 2024, reflecting cost pressures.
Net income turns positive, with 2025E estimate at R$995M, compared to a loss of R$1,564M in 2024.
Valuation ratios: PE ratio of 5.1x for 2025E, EV/EBITDA adj. ratio of 3.7x, indicating a premium but compressed outlook.

Robust sales growth across all regions, with Latin America showing strong expansion driven by pricing and volume increases.
Profitability improving markedly, with net margin expected to reach 1.8% in 2025E, up from -4.6% in 2024.
Key drivers include new plant ramp-ups and recovery in protein pricing.

Target price Bases on a DCF model with WACC of 10.5% and 1.5% perpetuity growth, reflecting shorter-term value potential.
Upside catalysts: Faster BRL depreciation, higher global protein prices, and quicker-than-expected plant capacity expansion.
Downside risks: Sanitary issues, international economic slowdown, and elevated cattle costs impacting COGS.

This summary captures the core financial outlook, valuation changes, and key risks from the Citigroup research report.

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