2025-06-16-花旗集团-久保田（6326）_久保田（6326.T）_增加下行90天催化剂观察_10页_338kb

Citi Research Report Summary: Kubota (6326.T)

Analyst: Graeme McDonald
Report Date: 16 Jun 2025
Catalyst Watch: Downside Expiring 15 Sep 2025
Investment Rating: Neutral (2)
Target Price: ¥1,750 (from current level)

Key Points:

1. Downside Catalyst:

   • Expected earnings release in early August (06 Aug 2025). The company may lower FY12/25 guidance due to challenges from tariff impacts and subdued demand.

2. Price Target & Returns:

   • Target price: ¥1,750.
   • Expected share price return: +10.8%.
   • Expected total return: +14.0%.

3. Valuation:

   • Citi uses a 11x PER on FY12/26 EPS.
   • Current PER is 10.4x, target is a slight discount to the peer average.

4. Supports & Risks:

   • Small potential buybacks “offer little support.”
   • Top risks include:
     ✘ Tariff challenges in North America
     ✘ Elevated inventories for small tractors
     ✘ Currency fluctuations (¥/$, ¥/€ exchange rates)
     ✘ US housing/credit slowdown
     ✘ Market competition focus on profitability over market share.

5. Market Position:

   • Global #3 in agricultural equipment, strongest in North America (47% revenue), followed by Asia.
   • Focus on Asia’s long-term agricultural growth, expansion in India, and higher aftermarket ratios (15–20%).

6. Financial Data (Estimates):

   • Current market cap: ~¥1.81 trillion (~USD $12.6 billion).
   • EPS target for FY12/26: ¥151.
   • OPM target (12%) appears unlikely to be met.

Analyst Certification & Disclaimer

• The report includes full analyst certification and disclosures, noting potential conflicts of interest.
• Citi Research’s Equity Rating is "Neutral," reflecting balanced but cautious medium-term outlook.