2025-06-11-花旗集团-JBS（JBSS32）_JBS（JBSS32.SA）模型更新_12页_442kb

JBS (JBSS32.SA) - Citi Research Summary

Rating and Recommendation

• Investment Rating: Buy
• Target Price Increased to R$111 per Share (up from R$55)
• Expected Share Price Return: 44.8% over 12 months
• Expected Total Return: 50.0%
• Dividend Yield: 5.2%
• Key drivers include margin expansion and transparency.

Company Description

• Largest global fresh meat protein company by revenue, producing beef, lamb, chicken, and ranking as the third-largest US pork producer.
• Operates in divisions: USA Beef (40% EBITDA), Poultry USA (20% EBITDA), Pork USA (15% EBITDA), Brazil Beef (10% EBITDA), and Seara (15% EBITDA).

Financial Highlights and Projections

• Key Metrics:
  • Sales (R$M): 416,952 for 2024, projected to 454,104 in 2025.
  • EBITDA Adj (R$M): 39,040 for 2023, expected to grow steadily.
  • Net Income (R$M): 9,616 in 2023, projected to 12,331 in 2025.
• Valuation Ratios:
  • PE Ratio: 17.7x for 2024A, decreasing to 6.9x in 2025E.
  • EV/EBITDA Adj: Not available for current year; ROE Adj: 25.8% in 2025E.
• Assumptions: Financial data based on company reports and internal analysis.

Investment Strategy

• Catalysts: Secular growth in Seara's branded food, margin improvements in USA Beef due to bargaining power, and enhanced valuation from ESG focus and liquidity.
• Catalyst: Potential US listing could positively impact stock performance.

Risks

• Higher cattle and grain prices in key markets (US and Brazil).
• Unforeseen capex or working capital needs for new acquisitions.
• Exchange rate fluctuations and sanitary risks (e.g., avian flu).
• Earnings forecasts may deviate if risks outweigh estimates.

Analyst Notes

• Provided by Renata Cabral and Tiago Harduim, CFA.
• Conflicts of interest include client relationships and proprietary research policies detailed in the report.