2025-06-16-花旗集团-久保田（6326）_久保田（6326.T）_维持中性评级_持续的平淡表现_18页_1mb

报告摘要

Analyst Rating: Neutral with a target price of ¥1,750 (reduced from ¥1,850 due to slower momentum and execution issues).
Sales & Profit Outlook: Forecasts deteriorating Q2 performance, with sales down 10% YoY and operating profit down 33%. The company is expected to provide lower guidance than initially anticipated.
Market Challenges:
- US tariff impact on imported machinery continues to drag down performance.
- Weak small tractor demand in the US and subdued demand in Europe.
- Asia sales seen at +9% for FY12/25, amid inventory pressures in Thailand and mixed market conditions in India/China.
Strategic Focus: Ag. mechanization in Asia (especially India) is key; expanding higher-margin aftermarket. Ongoing US tariff issues and residential demand slowdown in North America pose risks.
Valuation & Risks:
- Target PE of 11x FY12/26 EPS. Risks include global food prices, currency fluctuations, higher competition, and inventory issues.
- CY25 guidance may be challenged, with revised MTP targets (e.g., OP/12% OPM) likely missed.

EPS: 2023 ¥201.7, 2024 ¥197.6, 2025E ¥151.2 (down YoY).
Target Price: ¥1,750 vs. current price ¥1,574.5, representing a ~11% upside.
Market Cap: ¥1.8 trillion (as of 16 Jun 2025).

North America: 43% of machinery sales (YTD declined 24% YoY, tariffs are a major headwind).
Asia: 26% of sales; Thailand/India are key growth markets with challenges.
Europe: 12% share, lagging other regions.

Maintain Neutral stance due to reduced growth outlook, lingering tariff impact, and higher competitive pressures.
Investment remains cautious, with modest upside if global markets stabilize faster than projected.

End of Summary.

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