2025-06-11-花旗集团-WHA_Corporation（WHA）_WHA公司（WHA.BK）_即将到期的30天上行催化剂观察_10页_316kb

Citi Research: WHA Corporation (WHA.BK) - Expired Upside Catalyst Watch

Key Details

• Catalyst Watch Status: Expired effective immediately; buy recommendation should no longer be relied upon.
• Investment Rating: Buy.
• Current Price: Bt3.10.
• Target Price: Bt4.80.
• Expected Share Price Return: 54.8%.
• Expected Dividend Yield: 5.2%.
• Expected Total Return: 60.0%.
• Market Capitalization: Bt46,335M / US$1,421M.
• Analyst: Sureeporn Sirisansaneeyawong.

Analyst Recommendations

• Buy rating reiterated based on:
  • Limited downside risk due to cancellation of the proposed WHAID spin-off, eliminating earnings dilution.
  • Potentially higher upside from lower-than-expected reciprocal tariffs, considering US-China trade implications.
• Presales for the year expected at 2,150 million THB (down from 2,565 million THB in 2024), driven by positive FDI trends (+25% in applications, +32% in approved value).
• Land transfers projected to grow +15% to 2,321 million rais, primarily from data center projects.

Earnings Summary Highlights (Projected Data)

• Key Metrics (BtM / Bt / % / x / x / %):
  • 2025E: Net Profit Bt5,445M, EPS Bt0.36, EPS Growth 20.7%, P/E 8.5x, ROE 15.1%, Yield 5.3%.
  • 2026E: Net Profit Bt5,551M, EPS Bt0.37, EPS Growth 1.9%, P/E 8.3x, ROE 14.2%.
  • 2027E: Net Profit Bt5,470M, EPS Bt0.37, EPS Growth -1.4%, P/E 8.5x, ROE 13.0%.
• Initial growth expected in 2025E, with slight declines in later years.

Valuation

• Target price Bt4.8 derived from Gordon growth model, assuming long-term ROE of 13.2%, growth of 7.2%, and cost of equity of 10.7.
• Based on 13x 2025E P/E (EPS Bt0.36).

Key Risks

• Potential weakness in presales or tariff issues could negatively impact performance.
• Risks include: global trade worsening, economic slowdown, FX losses, capex levels, asset divestment, and challenges in scaling the EV business.