20170224-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_48页_2mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Core Content

This document is a regional market update for the period ending 24 February 2017, focusing on China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. It includes company results, stock recommendations, key indices, corporate events, and sector insights, particularly in the healthcare industry.

Main Points

China

Healthcare Sector: The 2017 National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) is expected to drive growth for certain pharmaceutical companies, but also presents risks due to stricter reimbursement conditions and potential price cuts.
- Opportunities:
  - Newly included products can benefit from volume expansion due to government reimbursement.
  - Price negotiation for expensive drugs with high clinical value may lead to a balance between volume and price.
- Traps:
  - Stricter indication limitations may restrict growth for some drugs.
  - Downside risk from new payment standards that could lower reimbursement rates.
Top Picks:
- CSPC (1093 HK): Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$12.36.
- United Lab (3933 HK): Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$6.13.
- China TCM (570 HK): Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$5.00.
- 3Sbio (1530 HK): Not rated, but its TPIAO and Yisaipu are included in the NRDL.
- Sino Biopharm (1177 HK): Maintain SELL with a target price of HK$5.54.
Company Results:
- Ctrip.com International (CTRP US): 4Q16 earnings beat expectations with improved margins. Target price raised to US$60.00.
- Ctrip's Growth:
  - Achieved Rmb430b GMV in 2016 despite challenges in air ticketing.
  - Raised its GMV target to Rmb2t by 2021, including contributions from Sky Scanner.
  - Expected strong growth in transportation ticketing, with 4Q16 revenue up 76% yoy.

Indonesia

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI J): Restructured loans portfolio shows improvement; stock is undervalued and recommended to BUY with a target of Rp7,100.

Malaysia

AirAsia (AIRA MK): 4Q16 earnings beat estimates due to strong pricing power; recommended to BUY with a target of RM3.10.
Xiata (AXIATA MK): Core earnings fell sharply to RM77m in 4Q16, but share price weakness presents an opportunity to accumulate as opcos stabilize into 2017; recommended to BUY with a target of RM5.15.
Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Results in line, but growth prospects have been priced in; downgraded to HOLD.
Malayan Banking (MAY MK): Net profit 7% above estimate due to cost controls and insurance earnings; upgraded to BUY with a target of RM9.20.

Singapore

City Developments (CIT SP): Limited upside after strong run-up; downgraded to HOLD with a target of S$10.36.
Ezion Holdings (EZI SP): Impending recovery and share price weakness; upgraded to BUY with a target of S$0.45.
Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP): Passing through a resistive node; recommended to BUY with a target of S$3.95.
M1 (M1 SP): Making good progress in fixed network services; recommended to BUY with a target of S$2.52.
China Aviation Oil Singapore Corp (CAO SP): Recommended to BUY with a target of S$2.21.

Key Indices

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	20810.3	0.2	1.0	5.1	5.3
S&P 500	2363.8	0.0	0.6	4.4	5.6
FTSE 100	7271.4	-0.4	-0.1	1.7	1.8
AS30	5832.5	-0.3	-0.5	2.2	2.0
CSI 300	3473.3	-0.5	0.9	3.2	4.9
FSSTI	3137.6	0.5	1.3	3.1	8.9
HSCEI	10521.5	-0.2	0.6	7.8	12.0
HSI	24114.9	-0.4	0.0	5.1	9.6
JCI	5372.7	0.3	-0.1	1.5	1.4
KLCI	1704.5	-0.2	-0.2	1.4	3.8
KOSPI	2107.6	0.0	1.2	2.0	4.0
Nikkei 225	19371.5	-0.0	0.1	3.1	1.3
SET	1567.3	-0.3	-0.6	-0.7	1.6
TWSE	9769.3	-0.1	0.1	3.4	5.6
BDI	806	3.6	13.5	-11.8	-16.1
CPO	3066	-3.3	-7.1	-7.0	-4.1
Brent Crude	56	1.1	1.5	2.3	-0.6

Corporate Events

Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia 1H17 Strategy Analyst Presentation: 23-24 Feb.
Group Meeting with Bumitama Agri: 27 Feb.
Greater China Strategy Analyst Marketing: 27 Feb - 1 Mar.
Luncheon with Yinson Holdings: 1 Mar.
Luncheon with Banpu and Banpu Power: 1 Mar.
Group luncheon with Beijing Capital Land: 1 Mar.
Teleconference with First Resources: 2 Mar.
Roadshow with Jacobson Pharma: 2 Mar - 3 Mar.
Annual Plantation Outlook Seminar: 6 Mar.
Roadshow with Guotai Junan: 7 Mar - 8 Mar.

Key Assumptions

GDP Growth (yoy):
- US: 2.6 (2015), 1.7 (2016F), 2.7 (2017F)
- Euro Zone: 2.0 (2015), 1.6 (2016F), 1.1 (2017F)
- Japan: 1.2 (2015), 0.8 (2016F), 0.9 (2017F)
- Singapore: 2.0 (2015), 1.4 (2016F), 1.8 (2017F)
- Malaysia: 5.0 (2015), 4.2 (2016F), 4.5 (2017F)
- Thailand: 2.8 (2015), 3.2 (2016F), 3.3 (2017F)
Brent Crude (US$/bbl):
- 2016: 45
- 2017F: 56
- 2018F: 61
CPO (RM/mt):
- 2016: 2,653
- 2017F: 2,600
- 2018F: 2,500

Analysts

Alex Jiang: +852 2236 6749, alex.jiang@uobkayhian.com.hk
Fu Jun Wei: +8621 54047225 ext 817, jwfu@uobkayhian.com

Top Picks (BUY)

Company	Ticker	Current Price (HK$)	Target Price (HK$)	Upside (%)
Air China	753 HK	5.97	6.50	8.9
Ping An Insurance	2318 HK	42.55	47.00	10.5
Ciputra Property	CTRP LJ	690.00	960.00	39.1
Indosat	ISAT LJ	7,000.00	8,015.00	14.5
Genting Bhd	GENT MK	9.08	10.15	11.8
Citiv Dev	CIT SP	9.66	10.36	7.2
OCBC	OCBC SP	9.66	10.75	11.3
Bangkok Dusit	BDMS TB	20.80	31.20	50.0
Siam Cement	SCC TB	520.00	600.00	15.4

SELL

Company	Ticker	Current Price (HK$)	Target Price (HK$)	Upside (%)
Hartalega	HART MK	4.76	3.67	-22.9

Summary

The document highlights the key developments in the healthcare sector in China, including the impact of the 2017 NRDL on drug companies and the potential for growth and risks associated with it. It also provides an overview of company results and stock recommendations for various markets, including the strong performance of Ctrip.com International (CTRP US) and the opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector. The key indices show mixed performance, with some regions experiencing growth while others face challenges. Corporate events are listed, indicating active engagement and strategic planning across the region. The analyst recommendations are based on detailed financial analysis and market expectations.

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