20160429-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_48页_2mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Date: Friday, 29 April 2016

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed summary of stock performance and company results for several key firms across China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, along with key indices and analyst recommendations. It includes profit updates, earnings guidance, target prices, and valuation metrics for each company.

China

BYD Company (1211 HK)

1Q16 Results: Net profit increased by 603% yoy to Rmb851m, in line with expectations. Core net profit grew 19x yoy to Rmb795m, driven by a 125% yoy increase in EV sales and improved EV margins.
2Q16 Guidance: Net profit expected to be Rmb1.4b-1.6b, a 305-363% yoy increase, which beat expectations. The surprise is attributed to EV sales pickup, better EV profitability, and solar business turnaround.
Earnings Revision: Raised 2016-18 EPS estimates by 20-36% and target price from HK$44.00 to HK$54.00.
Key Financials:
- Revenue: Rmb20,285m (up 33% yoy)
- Net profit (rep./act.): Rmb851m (up 603% yoy)
- Net profit (adj.): Rmb795m
- EBIT margin: 10% (2016F), 6.4% (2017F), 6.6% (2018F)
- PE (2016F): 22.9x, below one-year average of 28x
Valuation & Recommendation: Upgrade from HOLD to BUY due to strong earnings momentum and positive outlook on EV growth and profitability.

China Longyuan Power (916 HK)

1Q16 Results: Net profit increased by 3.6% yoy to Rmb1,066m, representing 30% of full-year forecast.
Key Drivers: Wind power generation increased by 6.2% yoy, but strict curtailment limited growth. Utilisation averaged 480 hours, down 67 hours yoy.
Management Outlook: Optimistic about 2H16 due to policy support to reduce curtailment. Full-year curtailment ratio expected to fall to 12.0% from 14.4% in 2015.
Valuation: Trading at 8.1x 2017F PE and 0.8x 2017F P/B, which is still cheap.
Recommendation: Maintain BUY as the company is expected to benefit from improved utilisation and policy support.

Indonesia

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)

1Q16 Results: Net profit declined by 13.6% yoy, within expectations.
Target Price: Reduced to Rp6,500 from Rp6,850.
Entry Price: Rp5,800

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)

1Q16 Results: Weak asset quality is the bank's Achilles' heel.
Recommendation: Maintain HOLD

Malaysia

Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK)

1Q16 Results: Core profit in line. Strong container volumes (+7%) not reflective of global trade, offset by mild growth in container yields.
Recommendation: SELL

Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)

Update: Improving PSC and cash flow are positives, but management is concerned about receivables.

Sime Darby (SIME MK)

Update: Commences first planting of Genome Select oil palms. Positive long-term outlook for plantation division, though minimal near-term impact.

Singapore

United Overseas Bank (UOB SP)

1Q16 Results: Weakness from non-interest income.

Venture Corporation (VMS SP)

1Q16 Results: Achieving positive alpha.

Key Indices (as of 29 April 2016)

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	17830.8	-1.2	-0.8	1.7	2.3
S&P 500	2075.8	-0.9	-0.7	1.9	1.6
FTSE 100	6322.4	0.0	-0.9	3.5	1.3
AS30	5289.4	0.7	0.2	4.2	-1.0
CSI 300	3160.6	-0.2	-0.0	0.8	-15.3
FSSTI	2862.3	-0.4	-3.3	1.5	-0.7
HSCEI	9060.9	0.3	-2.0	3.8	-6.2
HSI	21388.0	0.1	-1.1	5.0	-2.4
JCI	4848.4	0.1	-1.1	1.4	5.6
KLCI	1674.8	-1.0	-2.7	-2.3	-1.0
KOSPI	2000.9	-0.7	-1.0	0.3	2.0
Nikkei 225	16666.1	-3.6	-4.0	-2.6	-12.4
SET	1399.9	-0.8	-1.7	0.5	8.7
TWSE	8473.9	-1.0	-1.1	-1.7	1.6
BDI	710	-0.7	6.0	74.9	48.5
CPO (RM/ml)	2636	-0.3	-1.4	0.4	19.8
Brent Crude	48	2.0	8.1	19.5	29.1

Top Picks

BUY

Air China (753 HK): CP 6.18, TP 10.20, Pot. +/- 65.0%
Ping An (2318 HK): CP 37.00, TP 45.00, Pot. +/- 21.6%
Bank BJB (BJBR J): CP 925.00, TP 1,140.00, Pot. +/- 23.2%
Gamuda (GAM MK): CP 4.80, TP 5.55, Pot. +/- 15.6%
WCT Holdings (WCTHG MK): CP 1.64, TP 2.05, Pot. +/- 25.0%
City (CIT SP): CP 8.41, TP 10.86, Pot. +/- 29.1%
DBS (DBS SP): CP 15.44, TP 19.25, Pot. +/- 24.7%
Charoen (CPF TB): CP 24.00, TP 30.00, Pot. +/- 25.0%
Siam Cement (SCC TB): CP 484.00, TP 630.00, Pot. +/- 30.2%

SELL

Spurakencana (SAKP MK): CP 1.64, TP 1.43, Pot. +/- -12.8%
Sembcorp (SMM SP): CP 1.69, TP 0.88, Pot. +/- -47.8%

Key Assumptions

Region	2015 GDP (% yoy)	2016F GDP (% yoy)	2017F GDP (% yoy)
US	2.4	2.5	3.0
Euro Zone	1.6	1.7	1.7
Japan	0.5	1.0	1.0
Singapore	2.0	2.7	3.0
Malaysia	5.0	4.2	5.0
Thailand	2.8	3.2	3.6
Indonesia	4.8	5.0	5.5
Hong Kong	2.4	2.1	1.8
China	6.9	6.5	6.2

Brent Crude (US$/bbl)

2015: 53.60
2016F: 42
2017F: 54

CPO (RM/mt)

2015: 2,168
2016F: 2,500
2017F: 2,600

Analysts

Ken Lee
+852 2236 6760
ken.lee@uobkayhian.com.hk
Sophie Yu
+852 2826 1392
sophie.yu@uobkayhian.com.hk

Company Description

BYD Company produces automobiles, rechargeable batteries, and handset components in China.
China Longyuan Power is the largest wind farm developer in China and also involved in solar, geothermal, tidal, and biomass power.

Stock Data

BYD Company (1211 HK)

GICS sector: Automobile
Bloomberg ticker: 1211 HK
Shares issued (m): 2,476
Market cap (HK$m): 142,945
Market cap (US$m): 18,445
3-mth avg daily turnover (US$m): 30.0

China Longyuan Power (916 HK)

GICS sector: Utilities
Bloomberg ticker: 916 HK
Shares issued (m): 3,340.0
Market cap (HK$m): 42,271.4
Market cap (US$m): 5,449.0
3-mth avg daily turnover (US$m): 11.5

Price Performance

BYD Company

52-week high/low: HK$62.3/HK$26.7
1mth: 5.5%
3mth: 27.9%
6mth: -7.6%
1yr: -8.1%
YTD: 5.3%

China Longyuan Power

52-week high/low: HK$9.97/HK$3.75
1mth: 1.3%
3mth: 16.9%
6mth: -32.4%
1yr: -48.3%
YTD: -10.1%

Major Shareholders

BYD Company

Mr. Wang Chuan Fu: 24.24%

China Longyuan Power

China Guodian Corporation: 63.7%

Conclusion

The document highlights positive performance in several companies, particularly BYD Company, which saw a surge in EV sales and surpassed earnings expectations in 2Q16. China Longyuan Power also reported modest growth in net profit, with policy support expected to improve its utilisation and earnings in the second half of 2016. Analysts have upgraded their recommendations for BYD and maintained BUY for China Longyuan Power, citing positive outlook and strong fundamentals.