20151123-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_24页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides a detailed summary of stock performance and analysis for several Asian markets, including China, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, as well as key financial metrics and analyst recommendations. It includes company results, valuation insights, and strategic updates.
Main Points by Region
China
Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)
- Performance: 9M15 revenue rose 25% YoY to HK$11,443m, with net profit excluding fair value gains/losses at HK$1,363m (up 22% YoY).
- Product Mix: Improved significantly due to the success of newly-launched products, which expanded market presence and drove revenue growth.
- Key Products: Five new drugs, including oncology, anti-infectious, and hepatitis products, contributed significantly to revenue.
- Growth Drivers: Emerging products, R&D capacity, and market expansion efforts.
- Dividend: Quarterly dividend of 1.0 HK cents/share.
- Valuation: Maintained "BUY" recommendation with a revised target price of HK$8.50 (upside of +25.4%).
- Risks: Pricing regulations, competition, and the impact of anti-corruption campaigns on sales and marketing.
China Overseas Land (688 HK)
- Performance: Achieved 15.4% YoY growth in contracted sales in 10M15, close to last year's level.
- Bond Issuance: Issued Rmb8b in domestic bonds at 3.40-3.85%, the lowest for China property stocks in 2015.
- Sales Target: Revised full-year target of HK$180b, with HK$137.0b in contracted sales for 10M15.
- Market Position: Maintained "BUY" with a target price of HK$32.32 (+21.7% upside).
- Strategic Notes: The company is a state-owned enterprise (SOE) with a strong track record of meeting targets. Management changes are common in large SOEs and are not seen as a major risk.
Malaysia
Bumi Armada (BAB MK)
- Performance: 3Q15 core profit in line with conservative estimates.
- Recommendation: "HOLD" with a target price of RM1.05.
- Risks: Earnings and non-shariah compliance risks may outweigh longer-term catalysts.
Magnum (MAG MK)
- Performance: Ticket sales improved qoq, but hit by a high payout ratio.
- Recommendation: "HOLD" with a target price of RM2.60.
QL Resources (QLG MK)
- Performance: Net profit growth below expectations in 2QFY16. MPM division outperformed, but ILF and POA divisions underperformed.
- Recommendation: "HOLD" with a target price of RM4.30.
Singapore
Small-Mid Cap Strategy
- Key Picks: Centurion, Singapore O&G, and Valuetronics are highlighted as potential winners.
- Valuation Screen: Focus on value-based stock selection to identify growth opportunities.
Thailand
CH Karnchang (CK TB)
- Performance: Core earnings expected to surge 69% YoY in 2016 due to support from associates.
- Recommendation: "BUY" with a target price of Bt34.00.
Key Indices
| Index | Previous Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 17823.8 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| S&P 500 | 2089.2 | 0.4 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| FTSE 100 | 6334.6 | 0.1 | 3.5 | -1.7 | -3.5 |
| AS30 | 5305.5 | 0.2 | 3.8 | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| CSI 300 | 3774.4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 5.7 | 6.8 |
| FSSTI | 2917.9 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -4.9 | -13.3 |
| HSCEI | 10302.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | -4.1 | -14.0 |
| HSI | 22754.7 | 1.1 | 1.6 | -1.7 | -3.6 |
| JCI | 4561.3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | -2.0 | -12.7 |
| KLCI | 1661.9 | 0.1 | 0.2 | -2.9 | -5.6 |
| KOSPI | 1989.9 | 0.0 | 0.8 | -2.5 | 3.9 |
| Nikkei 225 | 19879.8 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 5.6 | 13.9 |
| SET | 1393.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | -1.6 | -6.9 |
| TWSE | 8465.5 | -0.1 | 1.6 | -2.4 | -9.0 |
| BDI | 498 | -1.2 | -11.1 | -35.7 | -36.3 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2080 | -0.6 | -3.5 | -4.3 | -9.5 |
| Brent Crude | 45 | 1.1 | 2.4 | -8.3 | -22.1 |
Source: Bloomberg
Top Picks
| Ticker | CP (Icy) | TP (Icy) | Pot. +/- (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing Capital | 8.88 | 11.40 | +28.4 |
| ICBC | 4.88 | 7.60 | +55.7 |
| Bank BJB | 735.00 | 980.00 | +33.3 |
| DiGi.Com | 5.10 | 5.95 | +16.7 |
| Maybank | 8.32 | 10.00 | +20.2 |
| CapitaLand | 3.13 | 4.08 | +30.4 |
| DBS | 16.90 | 22.34 | +32.2 |
| Kasikornbank | 170.00 | 210.00 | +23.5 |
| PTT | 275.00 | 340.00 | +23.6 |
| BUY | - | - | - |
| SELL | - | - | - |
| SIA Engineering | 3.71 | 3.30 | -11.1 |
| UMWH Holdings | 8.14 | 7.00 | -14.0 |
Source: Bloomberg, UOB ETR, UOB Kay Hian
Key Assumptions
| Region | 2014 % YoY | 2015F % YoY | 2016F % YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Euro Zone | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Japan | -0.1 | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Singapore | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.9 |
| Malaysia | 6.0 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Thailand | 0.9 | 2.7 | 4.0 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.4 |
| Hong Kong | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| China | 7.3 | 6.5 | 6.7 |
| Metric | 2014 (US$/bbl) | 2015F (US$/bbl) | 2016F (US$/bbl) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent (Average) | - | 99.45 | 56 |
| CPO | - | 722 | 765 |
Source: Bloomberg, UOB ETR, UOB Kay Hian
Corporate Events
| Event | Venue | Begin | Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regional Aviation Sector Analyst Presentation | Hong Kong | 25 Nov | 26 Nov |
| Regional 1H16 Strategy Forum | Kuala Lumpur | 2 Dec | 2 Dec |
| Singapore O&G Corporate Roadshow | Taipei | 8 Dec | 9 Dec |
| Singapore Strategy 2H15 Analyst Presentation | Taipei | 10 Dec | 11 Dec |
Company Results Summary (Sino Biopharmaceutical)
- Revenue: 25% YoY increase in 9M15 to HK$11,443m.
- Net Profit: 22% YoY increase to HK$1,363m (excluding fair value gains/losses).
- EPS: HK$0.281.
- Gross Margin: Slight improvement to 77.7% in 3Q15.
- Operating Margin: Improved to 20.1% in 3Q15 due to better operating efficiency.
- Net Margin: Slightly improved to 12.1% in 9M15.
- R&D Investment: HK$1,174.5m (10.3% of total revenue).
- Earnings Growth: Revised from 21.6% CAGR to 25% CAGR for 2015-17.
Valuation and Recommendation
- Target Price: HK$8.50 (up from HK$11.20).
- Valuation Metrics:
- 25x 2016F PE
- 1x PEG
- Reasoning: Strong growth potential from emerging product pipelines and R&D capacity, with continued improvement in operating efficiency.
Company Description (Sino Biopharmaceutical)
- A leading pharmaceutical provider in China.
- Offers a broad range of drugs in various therapeutic areas, including cardio-cerebral, hepatitis, oncology, analgesic, respiratory, and diabetic medicines.
Stock Data (Sino Biopharmaceutical)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| GICS Sector | Health Care |
| Bloomberg Ticker | 1177 HK |
| Shares Issued (m) | 7,412.2 |
| Market Cap (HK$m) | 50,254.7 |
| Market Cap (US$m) | 6,484.4 |
| 3-Month Avg Daily Turnover (US$m) | 13.3 |
Analyst Contact
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Phone: +8621 5404 7225 x 811
- Email: caroldou@uobkayhian.com
Conclusion
The document highlights the performance of several companies in China, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, with a focus on Sino Biopharmaceutical and China Overseas Land. It provides detailed financial data, growth assumptions, and analyst recommendations, emphasizing the potential of emerging products and the impact of regulatory and macroeconomic factors.
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