20250727-恒力期货-油品周报_基本面初现走弱端倪_90页_4mb

Market Overview: Fundamental oil market signs are weakening; reduced month-on-month differentials (backwardation) pressure prices, amid macroeconomic uncertainties, supply stability, and shifting demand dynamics.

Crude Oil: Demand factors include mixed economic data and trade developments, while supply is supported by OPEC's stability concerns. Inventory levels are drawn down initially, but supply pressures loom; fundamentals continue weakness, driving prices lower.

Petroleum Products:

• Gasoline: Export quotas for state-owned companies increase demand support. Seasonal demand boosts overall consumption, but growth limits are near.
• Diesel**: Similar contradictions in demand and supply dynamics hinder upward price potential.

Fuel Oil:

• High-Sulfur: Short-term supply pressures, inventory issues, and demand variations are prominent; exports remain strong, with regional imbalances.
• Low-Sulfur: Supply constraints from Dangote's upgrade create potential gaps; inventory growth limits support; demand lacks strong catalysts.

Petrochemical Products (Polyester Chain, Over-Propane):

• Short-term price drivers driven by macro optimism; longer-term viewing suggests downward trajectory due to supply-demand pressures, with kit consideration for investment.