20250622-国泰期货-石油沥青周度报告_15页_2mb

Summary

• Report Focus: This analysis covers the domestic asphalt market, summarizing price trends, fundamentals, and key market dynamics for the week of 2025-06-16 to 2025-06-22.

• Overview: Asphalt prices rose amid rising international crude oil, with the national average at 3781元/吨, up 89元/吨 week-on-week. The market was supported by oil price hikes, but demand slowed due to widespread rainfall. The report suggests short-term volatility linked to原油 strength, with limited upside in the low-demand season due to risks from地缘政治 factors.

• Price Movement:

  • Domestic asphalt prices saw a range of 3741-3795元/吨, with regional price differences noted (e.g.,山东 vs. 长三角).
  • Futures prices followed crude oil jumps, with BU (asphalt) contracts showing gains amid high持仓量, though价差结构 remained tight in some areas.
    -现货价差 with马瑞原油 (Mars原油) indicated theoretical profit margins around 200-600元/吨, affected by库存 levels and seasonal factors.

• Market Dynamics:

  • Supply: Total weekly asphalt output increased by 1.3% to 54.1万吨, driven by higher开工率 and reduced检修. Key regions like山东和东北 showed seasonal production peaks.
  • Demand: End-user demand weakened due to降雨, leading to slower出货量 in华东和西南 areas.改性沥青产能利用率 edged down, reflecting lukewarm demand.
  • Inventory: Factory and social inventories saw minor accumulation (0.4% and 0.1% respectively), with山东 and西南 regions experiencing significant 中间库 builds.

• Risks:

  • Continued地缘政治 tensions could push crude oil prices higher, sustaining成本支撑.
  • Below预期炼厂产量 or supply disruptions might limit price upside.

• Balanced View: Overall, the market is range-bound with区间支撑 at 3741元/吨 and resistance near 3795元/吨. Short-term volatility is driven by原油 fluctuations, with medium-term outlook cautious due to淡季 demand constraints.