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Iron Ore Futures Weekly Report Summary (July 12, 2025)

Overview

This report summarizes the weekly iron ore market analysis, focusing on supply-demand dynamics, price trends, and investment outlook as of July 12, 2025. The market shows resilience amid seasonal challenges, with demand supported by export strength and ongoing steel production.

Supply Analysis

• Global iron ore shipments decreased by approximately 369.4 million tons week-on-week to 2,994.9 million tons, with Australia and Brazil leading reductions due to mine operations and deliveries.
• Key players like the "Big Four" mines cut shipments by 275 million tons, impacting global supply.
• Port arrivals increased slightly from 2,536 million tons to 2,414 million tons, but shipments continue to moderate, suggesting declining future arrivals.
• Non-mainstream sources saw minor increases in shipments, but overall supply remained constrained.

Demand Analysis

• Iron water production edged down to 239.81 million tons daily, but remains elevated at 240 million tons/d, supported by high steel mill output and profitability.
• Steel plant utilization rates decreased slightly, but indicators like 247 surveyed firms' production highlight strong demand, offset by seasonal constraints like唐山限产 (Tangshan restrictions).
• Export of steel products remains robust, providing marginal support to iron ore demand despite potential end-of-season weakening.

Price and Market Trends

• Iron ore (I) prices for contracts like the I2509 saw a strong weekly rise, driven by firm demand and inventories.
• Current market prices for iron ore powders show steady increases, e.g., PB粉 at 727 yuan/ton, moving up 27 yuan/ton week-on-week.
• Futures outlook: Short-term is bullish due to demand resilience and lower inventories, with prices expected to oscillate between 730-800 yuan/ton for I2509. Medium-term view remains bearish, influenced by fading demand and global factors.

Investment Recommendations

• Short-term strategy: Long position on Fei矿2509 with "逢低做多" (buy on dips), and 9-1 spread trades.
• Avoid long-term risks, as market could reverse with seasonal easing.

Key Data Points

• Port inventories at 14,346.89 tons total, with small declines due to balanced arrivals and outflows.
• High steel firm profits at 59.74% support demand, and "反内卷" (anti-internal competition) policy expectations add context to ongoing strength.
• Charts and historical data provided support fundamentals, with shipping costs moderately rising.

End-of-report disclaimers apply: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Written consent required for distribution.