20151008-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_750kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Market Summary (7 October 2015)

Core Market Movements

Overnight, Brent crude fell by 1.1% to USD51.33/b, while WTI crude declined by 1.5% to USD47.81/b, snapping a three-day rally. This was influenced by a large U.S. crude inventory build of 3.1 million barrels, which surprised traders following a previous drawdown reported by the American Petroleum Institute.

The LNG Northeast Asia CFR price dropped to USD6.67/MMBtu, with a 0.2% change from the previous day, -0.7% weekly, and -12.5% monthly. The Singapore 92 RON Spot price fell 1.5% to USD60.94/b, while Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot rose 5.3% to USD62.78/b.

Key News Highlights

India's Crude Imports from Iran: India imported 17.3% more crude oil from Iran in September compared to August, attributed to its new refinery in Paradip.
White House Veto Threat: The White House is considering a veto of the oil export bill, arguing that the focus should be on transitioning to a low-carbon economy.
Shell's Oil Price Outlook: Shell's CEO Ben van Beurden suggested that companies can adapt to a "lower for longer" oil price environment by reducing costs and investing in sustainable practices.

Company Reports and Ratings

Perisai Petroleum

Proposes 10% Private Placement: Aims to raise MYR40m to repay loans, with a SELL rating and MYR0.22 target price.
Delays Delivery of PP 102 Rig: Delivery deferred to 31 March 2016, with SELL rating and MYR0.22 target price.
Farms Out PP 101 to Hess: Farming out for 9 + 1 months at a DCR of USD99k, with SELL rating and MYR0.25 target price.

KNM Group

Bags RE EPCC Job in UK: Secures an £88m (MYR581m) 27-month EPCC contract, with a BUY rating and MYR1.00 target price.

Asian Oil & Gas Valuations

Company	Ticker	Maybank KE Rating	Price 7-Oct	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USDm)	90D T/O (USDm)	PER 2015E	PER 2016E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2016E	ROE %	P/BV (x)	Yield (%)
PetroChina - H	857 HK	Sell	6.29	4.80	226.8	93.2	27.6	48.1	6.8	7.6	2.9	0.8	1.6
Sinopec - H	386 HK	Buy	5.47	6.00	89.3	73.7	13.2	14.4	5.8	6.0	6.5	0.9	3.7
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	Buy	9.52	11.70	54.8	91.6	17.5	20.7	4.4	4.6	5.1	0.9	0.8
New Ocean Energy	342 HK	Buy	3.05	7.70	0.6	1.0	4.3	3.5	4.1	2.9	19.0	0.8	2.3
ONGC	ONGC IN	NR	257.8	NR	34.0	18.7	9.3	9.2	4.7	4.4	13.3	1.2	3.8
Reliance Industries	RIL IN	NR	913.8	NR	45.6	53.6	12.3	11.5	10.5	9.3	11.2	1.3	1.1
Cairn India	CAIR IN	Hold	166.9	198.00	4.8	6.5	4.6	8.4	1.6	2.7	11.7	0.5	5.5
BPCL	BPCL IN	NR	863.6	NR	9.6	24.8	19.9	11.0	10.6	7.2	15.2	2.9	1.8
HPCL	HPCL IN	NR	791.0	NR	4.1	25.4	20.2	9.4	10.1	7.3	8.8	2.1	2.1
Petron Corp	PCOR PM	Buy	6.90	11.25	1.4	0.5	15.8	9.3	7.9	6.9	11.6	0.7	2.3
Phoenix Petro	PNX PM	Buy	3.39	4.75	0.1	0.0	5.8	5.1	7.7	6.9	11.6	0.7	2.9
S-Oil	010950 KS	NR	79.20	NR	330.2	1,183.0	20.5	18.7	8.2	7.6	9.2	1.9	3.6
Chevron	CVX US	NR	-	88.12	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
ConocoPhillips	COP US	NR	-	55.27	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Shell	RDSA LN	NR	-	1,786	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
BP plc	BP / LN	NR	-	387.00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
PetroVietnam Gas	GAS VN	Buy	47,500	92,000	4.0	1.1	10.6	11.3	5.0	5.1	23.9	2.3	7.5
Asian Refiners Average	-	-	-	-	-	-	13.7	12.7	-	-	-	1.7	3.1

Asian Oil-Service Valuations

Company	Ticker	Maybank KE Rating	Price 7-Oct	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USDm)	90D T/O (USDm)	PER 2015E	PER 2016E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2016E	ROE %	P/BV (x)	Yield (%)
COSL	2883 HK	NR	9.49	NR	9.5	15.7	15.1	12.2	11.7	10.5	5.3	0.8	1.8
Anton Oil	3337 HK	NR	1.16	NR	0.3	0.8	N/A	N/A	86.5	12.7	9.1	-3.7	1.1
SPT Energy	1251 HK	NR	0.85	NR	0.2	0.4	N/A	N/A	174.3	-7.3	7.4	-15.9	0.7
Hilong	1623 HK	NR	1.78	NR	0.4	0.5	8.1	7.0	6.7	6.1	10.5	0.8	2.4
Honghua	196 HK	NR	0.66	NR	0.3	0.5	N/A	N/A	36.1	12.6	9.3	-2.9	0.4
Petro King	2178 HK	NR	0.85	NR	0.1	0.1	N/A	N/A	77.3	12.8	8.6	-1.4	0.0
Jutal Offshore	3303 HK	NR	0.83	NR	0.1	0.2	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Shengli Pipe	1080 HK	NR	0.27	NR	0.1	0.1	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chu Kong Pipe	1938 HK	NR	1.30	NR	0.2	0.2	N/A	N/A	8.2	45.7	18.6	0.3	0.0
Gas Malaysia	GMB MK	Buy	2.40	2.65	0.7	0.1	25.0	24.9	14.0	13.5	12.2	3.0	4.0
Petronas Gas	PTG MK	Hold	22.62	24.00	10.6	7.5	24.7	24.5	14.8	14.5	16.7	4.0	2.8
PTT E&P	PTTGC TB	Buy	61.00	87.00	7.7	22.5	10.0	9.0	6.5	6.1	11.3	1.1	4.6
TH Heavy Engineering	RH MK	NR	0.21	NR	0.1	0.4	N/A	N/A	11.1	53.4	11.1	-1.9	N/A
UMW O&G	UMWOG MK	Sell	1.31	2.55	0.7	0.9	-309.3	-27.7	20.5	30.5	-0.3	0.9	0.0
WahSeong	WSC MK	Sell	1.26	0.90	0.2	0.1	13.4	14.1	8.7	8.7	6.6	0.9	4.0
Yinson	YNS MK	Buy	2.89	4.35	0.8	0.4	20.9	18.6	15.1	14.9	13.9	2.1	0.7

Analyst Contacts

Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): (852) 22680648 | howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
Jigar Shah (INDIA): (91) 2266232632 | jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): (62) 21 2557 1137 | pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): (603) 22978688 | tliaw@maybank-ib.com
Michael Bengson (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498840 | micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
Yeah Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): (65) 6231 5842 | yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): (66) 2658 6300 x 1400 | sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): (84) 844555888×8082 | chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): (84) 444555888 x 8087 | binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn