20251108-广发期货-沪锌周报_TC持续下行_出口空间打开_25页_2mb

报告摘要

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Summary of沪锌周报

Key Insights

This report analyzes the weekly dynamics of the zinc market for the week ending November 8, 2025.

Supply: The supply-side logic of zinc's chain is easing asTC (processing charges) for both domestic and import concentrate are declining. This is due to falling sulfate prices compressing冶炼 profits, potentially leading to a production decrease in November. Zinc output for the first 10 months shows a cumulative growth of 10.09%, but with expectations of a环比 decline this month, limiting upward supply pressure. Export opportunities are expanding, which could offer some relief.

Demand: Demand remains weak with no signs of exceeding expectations. Domestic consumption is stronger than overseas, with key downstream sectors like galvanization and press-cast alloys showing subdued activity. Inventory levels indicate a shift toward higher finished goods stocks, suggesting limited demand uptake. Overall, demand is maintaining a neutral stance.

Inventory: Global and domestic inventories are trending downward, providing floor support. LME锌库存 levels are at lows, increasing挤仓 risk, but this may ease with upcoming交仓. The SHFE环比 decrease in stock suggests tighter supply.

Overall Assessment: Basic factors limit the upside potential for SHFE锌 prices. Breakout upward may require robust demand improvements or further降息 expectations. Export openings could support domestic prices, while LME锌 faces upward pressure constraints.