20210816-USDA-USDA_Oil_Crops_Outlook_2021.08.16_9页_240kb

Oil Crops Outlook Summary: August 2021

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the outlook for oil crops in the United States and globally, focusing on soybean and canola production, export forecasts, and market implications for the 2021/22 marketing year.

U.S. Soybean Outlook

Key Findings

• Yield Forecast: The first survey-based yield forecast for the 2021/22 marketing year is 50.0 bushels per acre, down from the 50.8 bushels per acre forecast in July. This is the lowest yield estimate since the 2020/21 marketing year.
• Production Forecast: The U.S. soybean production forecast for 2021/22 is 4.34 billion bushels, a 66 million bushel decrease from the previous forecast.
• Affected States: Drought conditions in Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota are the primary cause of the lower yield. These states account for 23% of total U.S. soybean planted acreage.
• Crop Condition: As of August 8, the percentage of the U.S. soybean crop in good-to-excellent condition has decreased by 14 percentage points compared to the previous year.
• Crop Development: Despite the poor conditions, soybean development is not far behind the pace of a year ago due to timely spring planting.
• Export Forecast: U.S. soybean exports for 2020/21 are forecast to decrease by 10 million bushels to 2.26 billion, and for 2021/22, the forecast is 2.055 billion bushels, a 20 million bushel drop from the previous forecast.
• Prices: The season-average price forecast for 2020/21 soybeans is $10.90 per bushel, down $0.15 from the previous forecast. New crop prices remain at $13.70 per bushel.
• Crush Volumes: The 2020/21 soybean crush estimate is reduced by 15 million bushels to 2.155 billion bushels, and the 2021/22 crush estimate is also lowered by 20 million bushels to 2.205 billion bushels.
• Soybean Meal: Production of soybean meal for 2020/21 is forecast to decrease by 300,000 short tons to 51.1 million short tons. Exports are expected to fall by 150,000 tons to 14.1 million tons, and domestic use is projected to decline by 150,000 tons to 37.65 million tons.
• Soybean Oil: Soybean oil production for 2020/21 is estimated at 25.215 billion pounds, and for 2021/22 at 25.71 billion pounds, a 175 million pound and 235 million pound decrease respectively. Exports are expected to drop by 75 million pounds to 1.7 billion pounds, while domestic use is projected to increase by 100 million pounds to 14.725 billion pounds.
• Ending Stocks: Ending stocks for 2020/21 are expected to be 160 million bushels, up 25 million bushels from July's forecast. For 2021/22, ending stocks are projected to remain unchanged due to lower production and use.

Global Canola Outlook

Key Findings

• Global Production: The 2021/22 global rapeseed production is forecast to decrease by 4.2 million tons to 70 million metric tons.
• Canadian Production: Canadian canola production is expected to fall by 3 million metric tons to 16 million metric tons, due to drought conditions in key growing regions like North-Central Saskatchewan and Southern Alberta.
• Australian Production: Australian canola production is projected to increase slightly to 4.4 million metric tons, up 100,000 tons from the previous forecast.
• Russian Production: Russian sunflowerseed production is reduced by 1 million tons to 15.5 million metric tons due to dryness and extreme heat in key growing areas.
• Ukrainian Production: Ukrainian sunflowerseed production is increased by 800,000 tons to 17.5 million metric tons due to higher planting.
• Global Sunflowerseed Production: The global sunflowerseed production forecast for 2021/22 remains at an all-time high of 56.9 million tons, despite the production decline in Russia.
• Canola Exports: Canadian canola exports are expected to decrease by 3.7 million tons to 6.9 million metric tons, the lowest since 2007/08.
• Global Trade Impact: A global spike in prices is anticipated due to reduced canola supply, which may ration demand from major importing countries such as the European Union, China, Japan, the UAE, and Pakistan.

Summary of Key Trends

• U.S. Soybean Production: Lower than trend due to drought in key states.
• Export Reductions: Influenced by higher prices and lower demand in China.
• Global Canola Supply: Decreased due to drought in Canada and mixed conditions in Russia, but Ukraine is expected to increase production.
• Market Implications: A potential global price spike and increased trade competition from Brazil, Argentina, and the U.S. are expected to affect demand and supply dynamics.

Conclusion

The 2021/22 oil crops outlook indicates reduced U.S. soybean yields and lower global canola production, which may lead to higher prices and shifts in trade patterns. These changes are expected to impact both domestic and international markets, particularly in soybean meal and oil sectors, and will be closely monitored throughout the marketing year.