20210514-USDA-USDA_Oil_Crops_Outlook_2021.05.14_9页_290kb

Oil Crops Outlook Summary: May 2021

Core Content

The Oil Crops Outlook: May 2021 report from the USDA's Economic Research Service provides an analysis of the U.S. soybean and oilseed market, with a focus on domestic and global demand, production, and export trends for the 2021/22 marketing year.

Main Points

Soybean Crush and Exports

• Soybean exports are expected to decline to 2.075 billion bushels for the 2021/22 marketing year, a 9% decrease from the 2.28 billion bushels projected for the current year.
• Soybean crush is forecasted to reach 2.225 billion bushels, setting a new record and surpassing the 2.19 billion bushels of the previous year.
• High soybean oil prices (projected at $13.85 per bushel) are a major driver of increased crush volumes.
• Domestic use of soybean oil is expected to rise to 25,400 million pounds, up from 23,600 million pounds in the current marketing year.
• Biofuel use is projected to increase by 2,500 to 12,000 million pounds, reflecting the shift from the old biodiesel category to a broader biofuels category.
• Export volumes are forecasted to drop to 1,450 million pounds, down 850 million pounds from current levels, due to strong domestic demand.

Soybean Meal and Sunflower Oil

• Soybean meal production is expected to increase to 52.5 million tons for the 2021/22 marketing year.
• Domestic disappearance of soybean meal is projected to rise by 500,000 tons to 38.6 million tons, while exports remain flat at 14.3 million tons.
• Soybean meal prices for 2020/21 are forecasted to increase to $405 per ton, and similar prices are expected in 2021/22.
• Sunflower oil demand is on the rise globally, with Ukraine and Russia leading the increase in production and crush.
• Ukraine's sunflower production is expected to grow by 2.6 million metric tons to 16.7 million metric tons, and sunflower oil production is projected at 6.99 million metric tons, up 1.05 million metric tons from the previous year.
• Russian sunflower production is forecasted to increase by 1.23 million metric tons to 14.5 million metric tons, with sunflower oil production expected to rise to 5.49 million metric tons.
• Ukraine's sunflower oil exports are projected to reach 6.40 million metric tons, up from 5.38 million metric tons in the current year.
• European Union is anticipated to increase production of both sunflower and rapeseed in 2021/22 to 10 million metric tons and 16.6 million metric tons, respectively.

Global Soybean Production

• Global soybean production for 2021/22 is forecasted at 386 million metric tons, a 6% increase year over year.
• Brazil is expected to lead the production increase, reaching 144 million metric tons on 40.4 million hectares with a 3.56 ton per hectare yield.
• Argentina is projected to produce 52 million metric tons on 17.2 million hectares, but exports are expected to remain flat at 6.35 million metric tons due to increased domestic use.
• USDA has slightly lowered Argentina's crop forecast to 47 million metric tons due to lower yield expectations.

Palm Oil Production

• Global palm oil production is forecasted to reach 76.4 million metric tons, a 2.71 million metric ton increase from the previous year.
• The growth is mainly attributed to Indonesia and Malaysia/Thailand, with Indonesia adding 1 million metric tons and Malaysia and Thailand adding 700,000 metric tons.

Key Information

• Soybean oil prices are rising due to increased biofuel demand and tight global supplies.
• Renewable fuel production, particularly biodiesel and renewable diesel, is a major factor in the shift of soybean oil use from food, feed, and industrial to biofuels.
• Domestic use of soybean oil is growing, which is reducing export volumes and tightening stock levels.
• Soybean meal and sunflower oil are also experiencing increased demand, with sunflower oil showing strong growth in Ukraine and Russia.
• Global production of oilseeds and oils is expected to rise, with Brazil and Argentina playing key roles in the soybean market.
• Uncertainty remains in global production forecasts, especially in South America, but Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseed trade in the coming year.

Conclusion

The 2021/22 marketing year is characterized by increased domestic crush levels, strong biofuel demand, and rising global production of soybeans and other oilcrops. These factors are expected to reduce U.S. soybean exports, tighten oilseed stocks, and support higher prices. The report highlights the impact of policy support and market dynamics on the future of the oilseed industry.