20171229-USDA-USDA_Oil_Crops_Outlook_2017.12.14_13页_111kb

Oil Crops Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report from the Economic Research Service (ERS) provides an overview of the 2017/18 outlook for oil crops, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, cottonseed, and other oilseeds. It discusses production, exports, domestic use, and market trends, highlighting the impact of global supply and demand dynamics on the U.S. market and international trade.

Main Points

Soybean Outlook

• Export Forecast: The 2017/18 U.S. soybean export forecast was reduced by 25 million bushels to 2.225 billion bushels due to slower sales and shipments, particularly to China, where competition from Brazil and Argentina affected U.S. market share.
• Ending Stocks: The forecast for ending stocks increased by 20 million bushels to 445 million bushels, which would be the largest since 2006/07.
• Crushing: U.S. soybean crushing reached an all-time high in October (175.9 million bushels) and is forecast at 1.94 billion bushels for the year.
• Farm Price: The U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is narrowed to $8.60–$10.00 per bushel from the previous forecast of $8.45–$10.15.

Soybean Oil Outlook

• Domestic Use: Domestic use of soybean oil in October reached a record high, contributing to a tightening of month-ending stocks at 1.63 billion pounds, the lowest since late 2014.
• Biodiesel Demand: Biodiesel demand is a major driver of soybean oil use. USDA raised the forecast for biodiesel use by 500 million pounds to 7.5 billion pounds for 2017/18, supported by policy clarity and countervailing duties on imports from Argentina and Indonesia.
• Export Forecast: U.S. soybean oil exports were reduced by 200 million pounds to a 4-year low of 1.9 billion pounds, with export sales commitments only half of the year-earlier level.

South American Soybean Planting

• Brazil: Soybean planting for 2017/18 was nearly complete, with less than 5% of the crop left. The harvested area is expected to be 35 million hectares, yielding 108 million metric tons.
• Argentina: Soybean planting was 56% complete as of December 7, with favorable weather in the main growing regions. Exports are forecast to increase by 500,000 tons to 8.5 million, up from 7 million in 2016/17.

Global Rapeseed Supplies

• Canada: Record canola production of 21.5 million metric tons was forecast, driven by high yields and area. This is expected to increase exports by 500,000 tons to 11.5 million.
• India: Rapeseed production is expected to decline to 6.5 million tons, with area falling short of the previous forecast. Warm and dry conditions in November hindered planting.
• China: Rapeseed imports are forecast to increase to 4.7 million tons, up from 4.3 million in 2016/17.

Sunflowerseed Outlook

• EU Production: EU sunflowerseed production increased to 9.3 million tons, driven by good yields in Romania. This is likely to reduce imports of sunflowerseed products.
• Russia: Sunflowerseed production was revised down by 500,000 tons to 10.5 million due to adverse weather and reduced area. Exports of sunflowerseed meal and oil are expected to decrease.
• Argentina: Sunflowerseed production is forecast to decrease by 100,000 tons to 3.7 million due to reduced area and excessive rain in southern Argentina.

Palm Oil Outlook

• Global Production: Global palm oil production for 2017/18 is forecast at 69.3 million tons, up 2.47 million from last month. Increases in Indonesia, Thailand, and Ecuador are partially offset by lower forecasts in Malaysia and Colombia.
• Indonesia: Indonesia's palm oil production is forecast at 38.5 million tons, up from the previous forecast and above the revised 2016/17 estimate. Exports are expected to rise by 1.8 million tons to 28 million.
• Thailand: Palm oil production is expected to reach a record level of 2.7 million tons for 2017/18.
• Malaysia: Production is forecast at 20.5 million tons, up from 18.9 million but affected by labor shortages.

Vegetable Oil Demand

• India's Import Policies: India's import tariffs for vegetable oils, including palm oil, have increased, which may limit demand despite weak global prices and reduced domestic supplies.
• Palm Oil Imports: India's palm oil imports are forecast to increase by 400,000 tons to 9.9 million, but the high tariffs could temper this growth.

Key Information

• Export Trends: U.S. soybean exports have lagged behind the 2016/17 record due to competition from Brazil and Argentina.
• Domestic Use: Increased domestic use of soybean oil, especially for biodiesel, has led to tighter supplies and lower export forecasts.
• Planting Progress: South American countries, particularly Brazil and Argentina, have advanced in soybean planting, with favorable growing conditions.
• Global Supply Shifts: Record production in Canada and Thailand, along with reduced production in Malaysia and Russia, has affected global palm oil and rapeseed supplies.
• Market Dynamics: India's higher import tariffs and reduced domestic production may have a significant impact on global vegetable oil prices and demand.

Tables Summary

• Table 1: Annual U.S. soybean supply and disappearance, showing increased production and use, with ending stocks at 445 million bushels.
• Table 2: Quarterly U.S. soybean meal supply and disappearance, highlighting increased use and exports.
• Table 3: U.S. soybean oil supply and disappearance, showing a tightening of domestic supplies and reduced exports.
• Table 4: U.S. cottonseed supply and disappearance, indicating increased production and use.
• Table 5: U.S. cottonseed meal supply and disappearance, with increased domestic use and exports.
• Table 6: U.S. cottonseed oil supply and disappearance, showing increased domestic use and exports.
• Table 7: U.S. peanuts supply and disappearance, with increased production and use.
• Table 8: U.S. oilseed prices, indicating a range of prices for different crops and a narrowing of soybean price forecast.

Conclusion

The report highlights the complex interplay of supply, demand, and export dynamics in the global oil crops market, with the U.S. facing challenges in maintaining market share due to increased competition and domestic demand. However, favorable growing conditions in South America and increased production in other regions are shaping global supply trends, affecting prices and trade balances.